Brisbane Broncos vs Manly Sea Eagles – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium
Wayne Bennett appears to have adopted a crop (or is that prop) rotation policy to get his troops through the Origin period. Thaiday and Hodges are back while Parker lies fallow for this round. Ben Hunt, presumably, takes over goal-kicking duties. Even with Parker resting, the starting pack for the Broncos has plenty of punch. They have a clear advantage over their opponents on that front and it's difficult to imagine them losing that all-important yardage battle. With room to move, Hunt and Milford could have a night to remember. My Friday night curse is a powerful spirit, but I'm backing the Broncos at home...confidently.
Verdict – Broncos by 14
Result - Broncos 44 defeated Sea Eagles 10
Wests Tigers vs Gold Coast Titans – Friday night – Leichhardt Oval
The Tigers don't like to lose at Leichhardt, but they did the last time they played here (in an extraordinary game against the Raiders). Losing two in a row at their spiritual home seems unlikely, but I'm struggling to warm to the line-up the Tigers have named. With Farah unavailable, Dene Halatau moves into dummy half. That's not a huge surprise, but Chris Lawrence starting in the second row is. This leaves the Tigers with a fairly inexperienced centre pairing of David Nofoaluma and Deloise Hoeter. It looks like Hoeter has been tasked with holding out James Roberts - sheesus! You all know about me and my Friday nights, but this game reeks of an upset. A quick check of the weather forecast and, for once, conditions in Sydney don't look too bad - another tick for the Titans. Don't trust me...I'm haunted.
Verdict – Titans by 2
Result - Titans 27 defeated Tigers 20
Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders – Saturday afternoon – Hunter Stadium
The first of three daytime games this round (yay) and both these sides are better for the scheduling. More shuffling in the halves for the Knights as Kurt Gidley returns to replace Tyrone Roberts and Carlos Tuimavave gets another run at five-eighth. Both these sides lost last weekend but their were signs of life in each case. The Knights are the logical favourite at home but with just one win since round four I have my doubts - I think the post-Bennett hangover may have set in. The Raiders are bringing a settled line-up on the road and I'm going green.
Verdict – Raiders by 2
Result - Raiders 44 defeated Knights 22
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors – Saturday night – NIB Stadium (Perth)
Note the venue - it's the perfect crime. The Bunnies drag the Warriors to the other end of the earth for this game every season. They get paid to take a game to Perth and they still, theoretically, have a home ground advantage. It is devilishly clever, and they tend to fly home with two points (and a bag of cash) as a result. Adam Reynolds (and Glenn Stewart) are still a few weeks away but the rest of the line-up looks solid. Night-time suits the Bunnies too - the Warriors play better during the day and the time zones push this game past the bedtimes of most of the lads from Auckland. As I said...it's the perfect crime.
Verdict – Rabbitohs by 8
Result - Rabbitohs 36 defeated Warriors 4
Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm – Saturday night – Pepper Stadium
There could be a dozen line-up changes in this game before Saturday night, but I'll go with what I know. Slater is back and Soward is playing. We shall find out on the night. A slightly strange performance from the Storm on Monday night - the Roosters were at or near their best and it was almost as if Craig Bellamy put his queue in the rack. The purple machine rarely put in successive sub-par performances but they are on a quick back-up, and successive away games brings the Panthers well and truly into contention. The injury to Matt Moylan sways me - his exclusion limits the Panthers attacking options and the Storm know a thing or two about closing down the attack of their opponents. I'm far from confident, and if Slater is a late withdrawal I'd be changing my tip.
Verdict – Storm by 4
Result - Storm 20 defeated Panthers 0
Cronulla Sharks vs Sydney Roosters – Sunday afternoon – Remondis Stadium
Paul Gallen, aka 'The Gentleman of Rugby League', returns to lead his beloved Sharks. Sadly, for Gallen, he faces a red-hot Roosters outfit with an unchanged line-up that just demolished the team that was on the top of the ladder. The Sharks have also jagged the Sunday afternoon timeslot, which has been something of a death sentence for the lads from the Shire. They often save their worst for Sunday afternoons, and did so again last weekend when they got comprehensively destroyed by the Dragons. I am reminded of the Knight from Monty Python (it's just a flesh wound). I say Chickens....I say Chickens by a considerable margin.
Verdict – Roosters by 30
Result - Sharks 10 defeated Roosters 4
Canterbury Bulldogs vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Monday afternoon – ANZ Stadium
Which bookmaking genius woke up and decided to make the Bulldogs favourite on Monday afternoon? All of them apparently. The Dragons were ruthless and brilliant last weekend and sit perched at the top of the ladder - deservedly so. Their defence is still holding up, and in the last two rounds they've been scoring points as well. Meanwhile the Bulldogs are outside of the eight and have conceded more than twice as many points as the Red V this season. As soon as I can find Ms Thinkers' handbag I shall be emptying it onto the Dragons I tells ya. Emptying it...gamble responsibly.
Verdict – Dragons by 8
Result - Bulldogs 29 defeated Dragons 16
Parramatta Eels vs North Queensland Cowboys – Monday night – Pirtek Stadium
The Cowboys record in Sydney has never been great, and at Pirtek Stadium it's arguably worse -particularly when you consider that the Eels haven't exactly been the best Sydney team in recent years. I guess with each successive win the Cowboys edge closer to their next loss, but the same can be said for the Eels...and everyone. The Cowboys keep on winning, and an all Queensland grand final is entirely plausible this season. The Eels needed their share of luck to get the win last weekend, although to be fair a bit of luck was due to fall their way. I have to stick with the northerners - the weather in Sydney on Monday shouldn't kill them.
Verdict – Cowboys by 2
Result - Cowboys 36 defeated Eels 30
Wally Lewis - round thirteen selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.
- BRONCOS vs Sea Eagles
- TIGERS vs Titans
- KNIGHTS vs Raiders
- RABBITOHS vs Warriors
- Panthers vs STORM
- Sharks vs ROOSTERS
- Bulldogs vs DRAGONS
- Eels vs COWBOYS
Comments
Submitted by chooks on
Such a tough week this week.
Submitted by newbie from perth on
@ The Coach
Thanks for sharing the “Premiers Theory” Coach. It looks very interesting indeed. Just need to hope you could obtain some half decent prices from the online bookies or your local TAB so that you could outlay all 3 in staggered amounts to make a profit on whoever manages to win on GF Day.
Hmm, Newbie might look at this a little more in-depth over the weekend.
Appreciate the thought that went into this and the generosity in sharing with the world. Cheers Coach!
P.S. Unfortunately, Western Australia doesn’t have Monday off. We have our Queen’s Birthday holiday in September. D’oh!
Peace!
Submitted by a on
Where is Birdboy and Joker gone this weekend
Submitted by Birdboy on
Hey thinker,
Sorry I missed out on my tips last weekend mate, Ive been called away since last weekend on an urgent business call and haven't had any internet connection. But, im back now, and my tips are as follows
Brisbane
Tigers
Knights
Rabbits
Roosters
Panthers
Dragons
Eels
Good luck all!
Submitted by christine on
Thanks guys for your concerns I appreciate I am doing better but it's all part of having ms you have falls & once your on the ground you can't get back up , wish I didn't have it but you have to live with it
Submitted by a on
Yes that is just life
Submitted by The Thinker on
No problem at all Birdboy - you're still level with me and that's all that matters :-)
Submitted by a on
Yes that all that matters
Submitted by Coach Potato on
You gotta love that certain awkwardness the silent review offers
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
I made the plunge last year for membership and since I don't get interested in SOO, bit hard in the hospitality gig, I put all my effort behind Parra. Also gave a fair bit of stick last year to other blue and gold men in T-Bar for tipping against them so............ I keep the faith. But I think that the secret of Parra's success is a happy Chris Sandow, and he was beaming all last week.
Submitted by a on
I think QLD will win orgin
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Dali Llama's in town. I must be getting my own karma back for mocking Thinker. Sorry thinker. There. Done it. 6 from 6 from here Dali, what do you say?
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Bit annoyed with that Ben Hunt try, guy lying on him, elbows and ball grounded and still able to get up and score. But ohh yeah, last time I got 2/2 on a Friday I think I ended up with only 3 or 4 for the round so here's to hoping I do better than that.
Submitted by a on
I am also 2 from 2
Submitted by Coach Potato on
So a more direct question. My theory on who wins the comp with only 3 teams in it come September not 8, the one that many of you requested me to put forward, including the King. What do people think? Thanks Newbie and Steel. What about the others? Anything? Totally on the mark and will directly affect fixed price markets around the world in 2 months time? Hair-brained, off the planet creative accounting and just a waste of time? Throw me a bone or two.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
To answer your question Coach, I think after reading what you have written and then further researching into it for myself, that is one of the single greatest assessments into our game that I've ever seen from somebody and HOLY CRAP ! The King himself, Wally Lewis, actually left post up on here for first time ever ! That is so cool ! *Squeals and Faints* ;-D
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Thanks JR.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E7Eso6d9vik
Submitted by Declan_S on
I'm a fan Coach!
Sorry to any dragons fans who see this, but assuming that they can't carry this current form through to the end of the year, do you think we're looking at a QLD premier?
Submitted by Declan_S on
Also for any of you that missed it, Benji Marshall recently said on NRL 360 that the dragons have been doing roughly 20 minutes of extreme intensity game-simulation training each week, where the aim is to give it everything they've got, especially in defence. This equates to roughly 80 minutes (or one game) of extra football per month. Assuming they do this every week of the year, that's 5 extra games worth.
Will this burn them out close to the finish line, or is McGregor on to something?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
If the formula can only accommodate 3, the looks at the moment like Cowboys v Broncos or Dragons, but just wait a month or so, Warriors are going for 4 straight this week. What would we be saying if they got to 6 in a row? Knights need to win 7 of their 13 games left just to make the 8. Possible and the aren't playing that bad. Time just running out.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Updated Streak table. Broncos hit 10. Officially qualify for top 4. home final week 1, home final week 2, and home Preliminary Final if they finish in the top 2. Cowboys will qualify for the same if they win this week.
Submitted by a on
Cowboys might hit 10 as well
Submitted by tonibet on
Hi all,
I am not here to place weekly tips. (don't know enough).
I do_ punt but mainly MLB currently... but nothing too serious.
I stumbled across your site searching for info on my beloved Hurricanes since they're going so well next door in the Super Comp, and found your rants here an interesting read, so I am more here as a weekly browser! Okay done!
Anyway, just thought I'd share a couple things that may be of interest to whomever?
Many years ago I lived with a very successful sports bettor, mainly Super 12 Rugby, NRL (Stacey Jones), and EPL (Soccer)... Sky TV installer, TV in nearly every room, photographic (event) memory (ie: didn't rely on PC, except to see what was on offer for the weekend) and would often refer to players as "no no, you know the guy that...", and apparently his grandfather was a successful horse punter... so you know the type (just in their blood) ...made squidieons!!
_____________________________
His 2 Things: Sorry, these 2 were all that I remember!
(whether it be Rugby, League or Soccer).
Thing 1: Friday Night Upset?
Q: Friday would come and I'd ask "another big bet tonite?"
A: To which he replied "Nah, I no longer bet friday's... there's a thing I personally call the 'Friday Night Upset' ...got sick of losing money there".
(and yes I did suggest betting against it) ..."I just stay away from that altogether ...and the same goes for those rouge thursday/monday matches also".
Thing 2: Bogeys?
He also had this thing against some colours, and horizontal stripes!
Didn't often bet against any team that had a considerable amount of Green on their uniform (looked too much like grass) and affected the oppositions defensive abilities.
...and any significant horizontal stripes (lines) across their jerseys (something to do with horizon lines on the field, grounds, stadium... can't quite remember exactly).
Remember: His words, not mine, please don't shoot the messenger!
I queried him a couple times on point 2, and got enough (live after match - back then of course) confirmation to warrant it's validity, often accompanied with a smirk and a "well I told you so"! Yeah you guessed correctly... I would lose money! (I mean it just sounded ridiculous right?)
_____________________________
As for any meager contributions I may offer:
http://www.oddsportal.com/rugby-league/australia/nrl/results/#/
Historical Results (with Odds).
http://footyforecaster.com/NRL/Ladder/2015_Round_1
NRL Ladder: After Each Round
(2 things I have struggled to find over the years?)
http://nrl.has.it/
Quick loading site due to text only
And there's this guy:
https://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~dscott/
Well that's all I have, perhaps nothing new added here?
All good! just thought it worth a mention, best of luck!!
Sorry if I don't post again, just happy being a browser!!
Thanks!
_____________________________
fwiw: Yes... Warriors, Storm, Maroons!
Q: Bro what gives with the Choc Paddle Pop?
A: What seriously? like that needs explaining? ...just Yum!
"...statistically, more ice cream is consumed during winter than summer... the ultimate comfort food". TV Chef, Karen Martini.
Submitted by a on
What the hell are you talking about tonibet
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Nice post tonibet. You're right, quirky betting superstitions can often be right, and things dont always happen on grass the way they were meant to happen on paper.
Post away as often as you want. You dont not need anyone's permission.
As for alternative sports bets, get on Stan Wawrinka in the French Open. A finalist last year and my eye senses his stroke is destined for success on the clay. The slower surface suits this guy with powerplus in his groundstrokes, and a big long back swing, so plenty of time to prepare each shot. Currently Djokovic 1.25 Wawrinka 5.00. I say get on.
Submitted by tonibet on
Hi a,
...umm what part did are you having trouble understanding?
I realise my post is not in line with what's currently being discussed, I just thought I'd throw it somewhere in the middle hoping folks here might get that? Is there a particular time to actually post something like this here? IDK?
As for what I have written, I guess you just have to take it as a stand alone piece of information, and if it assists anyone with their NRL weekly selections, then great!
and if not, so be it?
I originally had the thought to post it here a few weeks ago? (when Coach Potato revealed his NRL Top 4 (after Round 5) Going on to play Semi-Finals Football theory), and when I read his 1 in 3 GF post this week, well I thought now might be a good time to slot it in (somewhere?).
Yeah I know, some of it is a little wacky, sure! but mate I was there, and this guy certainly knew how to bet NRL (and Super Rugby and English Premier League Football) all wacky-ness aside?
It appears most here like stats and are passionate about the NRL, and The Thinker virtually opened this thread with his Friday Night Curse admission, and I thought my old flatmates theories supported that.
I'm no statistician myself, but hey, if what I wrote helps... let it be so? IDK
...and come on' who doesn't like choc paddle pops?
Hoping that helps?
Submitted by tonibet on
Thanks Coach... sorry I'm not the fastest typer?
Submitted by a on
I was just wondering what you meant that's all
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Thinker, you have been talking to Dali this week haven't you?
Submitted by a on
Maybe he has been I do not know
Submitted by Declan_S on
According to Toni:
Friday night games: void
Saturday's games: raiders = green = win
Rabbitohs = green and horizontal stripes = win
Melbourne = horizontal stripes = win
That's 300%+ profit if you're Toni's flat mate!
Submitted by Rick on
Tonibet thank you, great reading as I am last on the ladder this season I need all the help I can get lol you could have a point with some of those comments, as Fridays and Mondays can be an issue for a lot of folk including me big time.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Dont worry Rick. I'm doing my best to keep you company.
Sunday rant is the 7 tackle 20m restart. Gotta get rid of it. Its a rule that polices something that doesn't exist in the game anymore. It was meant to penalise Soward's ploy for the Dragons of kicking dead into the crowd, happy to reset their defense and give the ball away.
1/ Soward, now with the Panthers never uses that play
2/ No other player in the NRL uses that play.
Anytime a ball goes dead, or if a player catches it on the full in the in-goal, never is it because the attacking team want to give the ball away.
Teams get 7 tackles reward for the policing of something that doesn't exist. You get the friggin ball back, and you get 20m start. Its not the attacking teams fault that they tried something and it didn't com off.
They really need to get rid of it the 7 tackle restart.
...and #BringBackTheScrum
What are your thoughts King Wally?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Go Sharkies. As I say, theres something about the Roosters game. I think its all mental, and that bodes poorly for Sydney. Playing Cronulla is now deep inside their head. They dont know how to remove the doubt from their heads. Make no mistake, doubt has energy. Doubt will produce nerves, and an inability to think clearly under pressure. When the Roosters play the Sharks, today no different, without question, they play with doubt.
Submitted by a on
Sharks won damn
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Disappointing tip Scott M.
You should have known better than anyone.
Submitted by a on
Sharks usually beat Roosters
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Stanislas you are the MANISLAS !!!!
Submitted by a on
We have 2 good games on tonight
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Talk about rocks and diamonds from the Roosters. Last week awesome against the Storm. Last night awful against Cronulla. You were going along nicely too Thinker. Of all the games to kill your full round last nights was the least likely in the opinion of the majority.
After both teams put in an error-ridden performance this weekend I'm predicting a score line of 0-0 in next Saturday's Warriors v Roosters clash at Mt Smart unless one team can hold on to the ball....
Submitted by Rick on
........Thank you coach on your Wawrinka observations just made a few bucks on him :)
Submitted by a on
Wawrinka won
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Happy Days Rick. Buy yourself something nice.
If you think I could be on a roll, I think Cowboys leaky right hand side is going to be in trouble today against Parra's favoured left side attack. Radrada the obvious choice for tryscorer anytime at $1.55 but I dont like betting on things with the 1 in the front, and I like Cory Norman to score anytime at $4.
He's making a few breaks lately and keenly backing up his teammates. Not to mention, after 12 games he's still on a nudie run, so he's not going to pass if he sees the white chalk. If I had $20 to throw something at, I will usually go half saver / half exotic - so $10 on Parra to win @$2.60, and $10 on Norman to score at any time @ $4.
Submitted by Thinker's Little Helper on
Quick shout-out to tigerholic and others ... per the request from the comments in round 12, I have hacked together a rough-as-guts list of everyone's tips for a round, shown on one page.
There's a link to it just next to everyone's pictures above the comments. Almost completely too late, here's the Round 13 tips at a glance page.
I hope that helps.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Excellent work helper. Great reference now for everyone and an extra reason to post a comment, so in the end, win-win I would think.
Submitted by a on
Good idea could you do it every weekend Thinkers little Helper
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Looks good TLH, hope that not a lot of Peter Garrett went into that.
Submitted by a on
I am sure it was no simple
Submitted by mark ashford on
Just heard cooper cronk is out for 3/4 weeks with his knee injury.
Thinker/Coach what will that do to the Maroons chances of taking back the shield?
Is DCE or Hunt good enough to get them over the line?
Methinks the game at Suncorp will be the decider.
You don't think this could be rigged do you?
Oh and welcome tonibet I too love icecreams of any flavour.
Roosters game....the fix was in ridiculous result.
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Great stuff TLH. Makes it much easier to follow everyone's tip.....thanks!!
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