Brisbane Broncos vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium
It's fair to say the Broncos last performance surprised most of us. I mentioned last week that the margin of their victories at home is significantly larger than their victories away, and for that reason I'll be tipping them here. That said, my confidence in the Broncos has been shaken - trust them to lose the week I announce them as my premiership pick. The additions to the Bulldogs side only strengthen an outfit that gave the Chickens a contest in round 21 - Rona and Pritchard have scored 23 tries this season, and Tolman adds starch to a pack that already had plenty of starch. Moses Mbye has to be the best rugby league player to come out of Africa ever, and he clearly has a future in the game. Broncos just, and it's the game of the round.
Verdict – Broncos by 4
Manly Sea Eagles vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Friday night – Brookvale Oval
Oh Manly! He came and he gave without taking, but you sent him away. Oh Manly!
The lads from Manly stood up and delivered for their outgoing coach last weekend. I suppose they could do it again, and I suppose they could make some sort of run at the finals from here. I'll believe it if they can back up the effort last start with a similar effort this start. In the meantime my tip is based on the outcome the last time these sides met. Manly competed but the Bunnies always looked like they'd get there, and they got there with Reynolds off the field with concussion. With a top four finish in sight I can't see the Bunnies taking their eyes off the prize.
Verdict – Rabbitohs by 8
New Zealand Warriors vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Saturday afternoon – Westpac Stadium
The Warriors have taken games to Westpac Stadium on seven occasions...for one victory. Since Super League, these sides have met on 22 occasions...for 4 Warriors victories. They've lost their most important player in Shaun Johnson - one of not many players in this competition that can pick up a game and win it on their own, and their opponents are backing up from a confidence-boosting performance. It's the Red V for me.
Verdict – Dragons by 2
Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – Remondis Stadium
The Sharks are on a decent roll - dragging better teams down to their level and beating them with experience. No doubt a similar strategy is planned for Saturday night, and Jonathan Thurston can certainly get frustrated when things don't go right. Paul Gallen and Michael Ennis won't have any qualms about niggling him off his game. Will it work? I think it can, but it won't be pretty.
Verdict – Sharks by 2
Parramatta Eels vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday night – TIO Stadium (Darwin)
When I was younger (so much younger than today), I was a much bigger idiot than I am now. One night I was celebrating with the lads in the beautiful mid-town district of Rockhampton. Base camp on such occasions was a van owned by a mate. On one such occasion I'd had a little more to drink than any human should and managed to fall asleep in the back of the van. Now usually this wouldn't be a problem, but the rest of the boys decided the best thing to do was leave the van overnight and pick it up the next day. Consequently, I woke up many hours later inside a car-shaped oven baking in the capricorn sun. Feeling a touch dehydrated and close to death, I dived for the esky in the back of the van and found a one litre bottle of ginger ale with my name on it. I guzzled like I was in a Solo commercial. Seconds later I realised that at least half that bottle of ginger ale was scotch, and seconds after that I did a very good job of coating the inside of the van with most of what was in my stomach. I managed to get the door of the van open and stumbled out into the day, frightening an elderly couple who were walking their dog. Little did they know I was closer to death than they were. My only option was to start the ardous journey home on foot. Vultures circled overhead and I saw colours that I haven't seen since...but I lived to tell you the tale. I tell you this tale because I watched that hideous Titans/Eels game, and I swear to you I would rather re-live that Rockhampton experience than watch a replay of that game. I cannot possibly tip the team that lost on Monday night. A rare Panthers victory looms.
Verdict – Panthers by 10
Melbourne Storm vs Gold Coast Titans – Sunday afternoon – AAMI Park
With reference to the story I told you above...I had to go back and clean out the van. After eight hours in the Rockhampton sun it wasn't pretty, but it was still prettier than that game on Monday night. The Storm at home on a bounceback after a surprise loss. Bellamy will have them firing.
Verdict – Storm by 20
Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters – Sunday afternoon – Hunter Stadium
Next week the Knights face the Tigers, and the loser of that game is your likely wooden spoon winner. This week the Knights are all about losing, but with their points differential looking a bit sick they don't want to lose by too much. Even that could be a stretch target for the Novacastrians - the Roosters have scored 71 points in the last fortnight while the Knights have conceded 98. The Dragons managed 46 points last week so if the Chooks bring their A-game they could post a cricket score. They could declare at halftime and send the Knights out again.
Verdict – Roosters by 22
Canberra Raiders vs Wests Tigers – Monday night – GIO Stadium
If games fall the right way the Raiders can be in the top eight with a win here. Meanwhile there'll be strategists in camp Tiger wondering if they'd be better off forfeiting the points and staying home. For the next seven days the minimum temperature in the capital is below zero. Monday night is still some way away, and weather forecasters can get it wrong, but I think we can safely assume it will be cold. They're also forecasting 25km/h westerlies on Monday afternoon and evening. The Tigers won't want to leave their hotel rooms, and once they do they'll just want to go back. Are rugby league players allowed to wear mittens? A victory for the elements...and the green machine.
Verdict – Raiders by 4
Wally Lewis - round twenty-two selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.
- BRONCOS vs Bulldogs
- SEA EAGLES vs Rabbitohs
- Warriors vs DRAGONS
- Sharks vs COWBOYS
- Eels vs PANTHERS
- STORM vs Titans
- Knights vs ROOSTERS
- RAIDERS vs Tigers
Comments
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Awesome. Interesting thing about song Mandy it was originally called Brandy and before Barry Manilow covered it there was version of it by a New Zealand guy called Bunny Walters. As kid growing up who only ever really had heard Barry Manilow version of this song before it sounded so hilarious when I discovered this other version of song on radio because to me having dude sing about Brandy automatically made me assume he was drunk. That's why I used to love song when it came on. I would be all like yeah, drunk guy back on radio ! But then I was such stupid kid. You know David Bowie song "All Young Dudes" and line in it " Oh man who's need TV, when I've got T-Rex ! " ? Yeah, you know hearing that I actually thought that he had T-Rex ? I did ! I actually thought as a kid that David Bowie had his own private pet dinosaur ! That you know not knowing he was singing about some band from seventies, you could actually see David Bowie doing that, him cloning some long extinct prehistoric animal as his own personal pet. You could so see Hi. doing that and I can still picture David Bowie with it, with a bow on it's head, a leash around it's neck, taking it for long walk and frighting all other the dogs : "Rawwwrrrr ! " " Heal Daphne, heal ! Bad Dinosaur ! That's a bad girl ! " Yeah ... Like I said I was such a stupid kid ! Let's get on with this week picks :
Broncos - Bulldogs are going to be lucky to make top eight the way they are going. Got to go with home team in this one. Broncos by sixteen points.
Sea Eagles - Looking at the stats ( I.e Coach back me up ) Rabbitohs struggle to win games at Brooky and that's why I am going with them in close one. Sea Eagles by six points.
Warriors - Everything that Thinker said about Warriors is right and there really is no way anybody should take Warriors to win this game against Dragons especially when our playmaker Shaun Johnson is out for rest season. Still I just have this feeling that they're going to win and that's enough for me. Warriors by two points.
Cowboys - Sharks won't win this. I'm sorry Thinker I just don't see how Cronulla could be capable of beating team who every week are looking more and more like 2015 premiers. Cowboys by fourteen points.
Eels - Again I know everybody should go with Thinker on this and do what he says and back Panthers but I just really can't see how when going on recent form that Eels can get beaten here. Eels by four points.
Storm - Titans won't this game playing in Melbourne. Storm by sixteen points.
Roosters - The only thing Knights are now guarantee to win is wooden spoon which sucks for me because it wasn't too long ago I used to follow them and Dragons. Roosters by twenty eight points.
Raiders - Raiders are still realistically in chance to make it into top eight now that Titans, Tigers, Panthers, Knights, Warriors are now certainty's to stay in bottom of ladder for remainder of season. Whether they do or not depends peeps on how well they can play this game. Raiders by eighteen points.
Awesome. Thanks again Thinker. Thanks again everybody. Good luck with all your picks and like always go New Zealand Warriors ! Kiwi Power ! Peow ! Peow ! ;-D
Submitted by Coach Potato on
So I read the paper today spruiking the idea of an aboriginal haka. Crap, that's it. Powerball ticket tomorrow.
JR, haven't looked at stats but I definitely know what this game means to Manly, and don't worry, Souths realise the meaning too. It's the game that was taken off Manly, finals week 1 last year. Manly will be unstoppable. 10 Inglis trains won't be enough, and they only have one. Souths have always shown their frailty when teams feel like matching them physically. Top 4 is an interesting comment because Manly can still reach a 10 streak, and no reason to suggest at the minute that they won't. If people think they will just be a thorn in a few teams sides, better think again.
Back from a week's timeout from tipping. Promide I will get them in this week. The prodigal son has returned.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
*Promise .. you know what I mean
Submitted by Coach Potato on
So Manly can actually reach 11 if they win the next 5 - still a chance for top 4, and would be going into the finals on a streak of 7. But lose against Souths, and best score they can get to is 8. Can still make the finals, but that's all. This very game makes or breaks Manly's top 4 aspirations. Souths are 8 points clear of the Eagles, but lose here and they could easily not win another game.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
1978 Grand Final. Pre game entertainment Barry Manilow singing his new song, Oh Mandy. Part way into the game the tune is still in people's heads but comes out as Oh Manly. Can't quite put the Sharks away even with the crowd in full voice. Score finishes 11-11. Then the first ever Tuesday Grand Final and Oh Manly triumph 16-0.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Yeah coach. Speaking about grand finals anybody else here remembers 2002 Grand Final where NRL reportedly paid up to million dollars to bring Billy Idol out here for the halftime entertainment show only to have him cut sound cables with his own hovercraft as he was coming out to field to perform ? That instead of medley of hits, his entire set instead consisted of him screaming " I love my footy ! " ad nuseum to crowd in stadium for twelve whole minutes while a crew behind him worked fanatically to restore power to stage main equipment all to no avail. Ironically at the time it was funniest thing I saw since 1999 extended edition of Adam Sandler's "The Wedding Singer" on home VHS : https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dYKLmlMauOE ;-D
Submitted by Rick on
.............................. Hi Thinker I notice on the "tips at a glance" page your own tips have Eels listed rather than the Panthers :)
Submitted by The Thinker on
Oops, Thanks Rick.
I've fixed that now.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Ah....Grand Final pre-entertainment. So many memories.
Billy Idol was a disaster, but at least it was a funny disaster. Half the country laughed as one....which can only be a good thing.
Sometimes it's just bad...and not funny at all. As evidence I give you the 1987 AFL final, with Daryl 'Miami Vice' Somers singing Waltzing Matilda:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U01k2150eVQ
Submitted by a on
Here are my tips
Broncos by 6 I think Broncos will bounce back here
Rabbitohs by 4 I think South Sydney should win here
Dragons by 2 I think Dragons will contine hoodo here
Cowboys by 8 I think Cowboys will win every single game in Sydney here
Panthers by 8 Panthers will have one last chance of finals here
Storm by 10 I think Storm will win here
Roosters by 20 I thin Roosters will flog Knights here
Raiders by 4 Raiders to keep their season alive here
Submitted by Johnny Boney on
Hi guys, here are my tips for this week
Broncos by 8- Broncos to string a win together after their thrashing off the hands of Manly.
Manly by 4- Manly to continue streak here.
Dragons by 2- Dragons... just here to make it 2 in a row.
Sharks by 13- Sharks will be too good here I think.
Eels by 6- Eels to bounce back here.
Storm by 20- Storm to come back and smash Titans here
Roosters by 20- Roosters to obviously smash Knights here.
And finally... Raiders by 10- Raiders I think will start their run to the finals here (possibly).
Thanks a lot guys and cheers!!!!!!
Submitted by Johnny Boney on
Hi guys, here are my tips for this week.
Broncos by 8- Broncos to bounce back here.
Manly by 4- manly to keep their streak alive here.
Dragons by 2- My Dragons will make it 2 in a row here... just.
Sharks by 13- Sharks to win here and keep their good form going.
Eels by 6- Eels to bounce back and win against a injury tolled Panthers side.
Storm by 20- Storm to get a win up their belt in a smashing way.
Roosters by 20- Roosters to obviously smash knights here.
And finally... Raiders by 10- Raiders to get their road to the finals started here (possibly).
Thanks a lot guys and cheers!!!
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Bulldogs - Was that the Premiers who lost 44-14 last week? They really got a football lesson those Broncs. You'd have to have big question marks about them now. Reminds me a lot of the Dragons 2009. A team that dominated for much of the year but then closer to finals, teams starting taking them on and they folded like two Burgess brothers on top of Robert Jennings the other day. Manly showed the way, and who was watching carefully. None other than the one that shall not be named.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Manly - Hate them or really hate them, they are in irresistible form, and let's be honest with ourselves, Souths are not.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Warriors - Dragons sniff of finals footy about to get snuffed. Streaks always come to an end at some point.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Cronulla - A streak of 11 would be a rare season indeed for the Sharks. Are they up for it? I mean fans have been waiting a long, long time. Twice as long as those Cowboys fans then some.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Penrith - Not in great form but that just means they will respect the opposition and the ball. Something they failed to do last time they met.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Storm - Long season for the Titans gets longer. Hurry up and throw the deadshits on jail FFS. Stop harbouring criminals. It's not a good look. Oh that's right. It's the NRL we are talking about.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
..*in jail I mean
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Newcastle - Can't think of a reason. Maybe Roosters might like the price to lose?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Wests - Nothing to lose and that's when they play their best footy.
Submitted by Shanghai on
Hey Mr Thinker .... thanks for the BM video. I'm of a vintage that had that song foisted upon my person (apparently, it was popular) and I remember it all too well!
My tips this week:
Broncos
Sea Eagles
Dragons
Cowboys
Panthers
Storm
Roosters
Raiders
Excuse me while I sneak off to pour myself a Jamesons to help get the aforementioned song out of my head. Cheers all ............
Submitted by Coach Potato on
What the hell am I doing ??!!!!! ???!!
Oh nothing.
Just taking one game at a time.
Submitted by a on
Yeah taking it easy Coach
Submitted by The Thinker on
I liked it Coach....well done
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Hi everyone,
Newbie’s running late tonight. No form study, no deep analysis, no fanfare. Going on “gut” instincts this week. For what it’s worth, here’s my picks for Round 22 but keep in mind I only got 3/8 last time. Ouch!
Broncos - the Ponies to giddy-up this week because they’re at home and because they couldn’t do any worse than they did last week.
Rabbitohs - are Manly on a roll or will Souths bring ‘em crashing back to earth? The latter I think.
Warriors - what the hell happened last week Johnny? Reckon most wouldn’t give the Kiwis much of a chance here but I’ll take a punt on them again this week. Peow! Peow!
Cowboys - the Sharks managed to get in again but the Cowboys will be a tougher assignment I’m afraid. Yeah, the Sharkies have a habit of knocking off good sides at home this year but Newbie’s with those Cowboys in this one. Yee-Hah!
Eels - no idea really but why not throw in the Slippery Ones and hope for win.
Storm - no offence to Tiger fans out there but how did you lose that one Storm? Sheesh! Surely this “no-brainer” is indeed just that. Storm to bounce back.
Roosters - deepest condolences to Knights fans out there. There’s always next time (gee, I hope that little statement doesn’t come back and bite me).
Raiders - awesome effort last week from the Tigers but reckon it will count for nought this week. Green Machine for me.
Boss, the “Rockhampton Experience” was an absolute cracker! Thanks for sharing. Ah, shades of the Thinker in days gone by. Your literary juices were certainly flowing, much like your stomach contents all those years ago! Cheers.
P.S. I was sorely tempted to click on Daryl Somers singing Waltzing Matilda at the GF but seriously, it’s just too painful even thinking about watching something like that. Dude, happy going to my grave without seeing that. Ugghhh …
P.P.S. Hey, what’s wrong that BM song? Granted he’s an ugly head to look at (that crooked nose freaks me out man!) but just close the eyes, lean back and savour the majestic melody that springs forth! Makes Newbie feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Shanghai might shake his head at me admitting this but that song would have to be one of the all time classics! So much so that Newbie has it on his MP3 player when he goes away on holidays to Thailand. Now if only there was a Thai hottie named Mandy! Arroi maaaa …
OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Until next week people. Cheers.
P.S. If you forge your own signature, is it still forgery? Hmmm…
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Ok. Here we go.
Broncos - Its hard to have the team to beat, playing at home, with a pretty much a full strength team as an outsider. I see what everyone is saying, the Bulldogs look great and have the forwards to hurt the Broncos main weakness, no big forwards. But I'm going to hard tough and back the show ponies to get the win.
Rabbits - The Bunnies are a worry for tippers. They can go and lose this game easily, but no Tom Trbojevic made it easier for me to pick them.
Dragons - Still don't think that the Warriors can pull out the Knights dead cat bounce. Might be hard for the Warriors to close out the season.
Sharks - There seems to be a worry about the QLD teams coming into the final, Also the Cowboys slow starts are going to bite them badly shortly.
Eels - There is one team in the West and the Panthers are not them. It'll be a close game, but can't tip against the BOYS. It should be a lot of fun and a lot tougher than anyone thinks. Should be a moral boosting win for the BOYS.
Storm - Should be able to beat the Titans, but I think we mostly all said that about the Eels last week.
Roosters - Like everyone I'm taking the Roosters But by at least 46 points. Maybe even the first innings score in the cricket.
Raiders - For a team who put 18 points on the Cowboys, they should be able to take care of the Tigers on a cold and frosty Cantburra night.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Morning all
short and simple this week
Broncos
Panthers
Roosters
Raiders
Manly
Cowboys
Storm
Dragons
Good luck to al this week.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Hmmm maybe a prophetic call for the Roosters game. Australia all out for 60. Not good at all.
Submitted by Tailspin on
Hi everyone. in a hurry so same as the king for me please. have a great weekend. my grandma is having her 100th birthday party tomorrow so getting ready to head to tin can bay to help her celebrate. cheers
Submitted by a on
Austrilia played terrible in cricket
Submitted by mark ashford on
Hey Tailspin
Please give your Gran a big hug and kiss from me mate. Reaching the ton is a great effort and deserves recognition.
Tin Can Bay is a beautiful part of the world and I hope your Gran has a party to remember.
Best wishes to her mate....ENJOY!!
Submitted by Declan_S on
Manly, Bulldogs, Dragons, Cowboys, Panthers, Storm, Roosters, Raiders
Submitted by The Thinker on
Evening Coach,
Do you happen to have that list of mad roughies that won throughout the season? Don't go hunting for it if it isn't readily available.
I had a thought this afternoon and wanted to check something out.
All the best
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I"ll cut it and paste plus add the ones of last few weeks. I would say the favourites are winning, but backing the $3+ers still has you way way in front.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Thanks Coach....champion
Submitted by a on
All NRL teams will play better than austrilia cricket
Submitted by Coach Potato on
OK here you go. Remember I'm noones stat monkey, even though this isn't make me look like anything but ...
Every game this year where a team started at odds of $3 or more. Suddenly the favourites are in front 22 games to 11, with the cost of $10 a game $330, and collects $352. Still in front but only just.
Game 1
Round 2: Penrith $1.22 (40) Gold Coast (0)
Game 2
Round 2: Nth Qld $1.35 (14) Newcastle $3.20 (16)
Game 3
Round 3: Melbourne $1.27 (36) Cronulla $3.75 (18)
Game 4
Round 3: Souths $1.21 (20) Wests $4.45 (6)
Game 5
Round 4: Parramatta $3.20 (29) Souths (16)
Game 6
Round 4: Sydney $1.18 (34) Canberra $4.90 (6)
Game 7
Round 5: Sydney $1.20 (12) Cronulla $4.20 (20)
Game 8
Round 6: Parramatta $1.37 (16) Gold Coast $3.15 (38)
Game 9
Round 8: New Zealand $1.27 (28) Gold Coast $3.50 (32)
Game 10
Round 8: Melbourne $1.26 (10) Manly $3.60 (12)
Game 11
Round 8: Souths $1.22 (22) Canberra $4.00 (30)
Game 12
Round 12: New Zealand $1.35 (24) Newcastle $3.05 (20)
Game 13
Round 14: Wests $3.20 (34) Souths $1.33 (6)
Game 14
Round 16: Brisbane $1.15 (44) Newcastle $5 (22)
Game 15
Round 16: Souths $1.32 (20) Manly $3.20 (8)
Game 16
Round 16: North Queensland $1.22 (18) Cronulla $4.00 (24)
Game 17
Round 16: Sydney $1.10 (20) Gold Coast $6.25 (10)
Game 18
Round 17: St George $1.30 (12) Nth Qld $3.35 (18)
Game 19
Round 18: Canberra $1.30 (36) Newcastle $3.10 (22)
Game 20
Round 18: Gold Coast $3 (6) Manly $1.35 (38)
Game 21
Round 19: Parramatta $3.45 (4) Canterbury $1.28 (28)
Game 22
Round 19: Sydney $1.27 (24) Warriors $3.55 (0)
Game 23
Round 19: Brisbane $1.16 (42) Wests $4.80 (16)
Game 24
Round 20: Brisbane $1.15 (34) Gold Coast $5.00 (0)
Game 25
Round 20: Wests $4.25 (8) Sydney $1.20 (33)
Game 26
Round 20: Souths $1.24 (52) Newcastle $3.80 (6)
Game 27
Round 20: Canterbury $1.35 (16) Cronulla $3.00 (18)
Game 28
Round 20: Nth Qld $1.17 (46) Parramatta $4.60 (4)
Game 29
Round 21: Wests $3.05 (34) Melbourne $1.40 (16)
Game 30
Round 21: Sydney $1.33 (38) Canterbury $3.45 (28)
Game 31
Round 21: Nth Qld $1.20 (32) Canberra $4.60 (24)
Game 32
Round 21: St George $1.36 (46) Newcastle $3.00 (24)
Game 33
Round 21: Souths $1.18 (20) Penrith $4.50 (16)
Game 34
Round 22: Brisbane $1.35 Canterbury $3.00
Game 35
Round 22: Melbourne $1.15 Gold Coast $4.85
Game 36
Round 22: Newcastle $5.20 Sydney $1.14
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Two from two. I think the bye has done me good.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Well 0/2 and I failed to get my tips in. Shocking weekend of football for me.
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Your picks are posted in the comments Baggy. I'm sure The Thinker's Little Helper will be able to crunch them through....
Submitted by Coach Potato on
... And what did you lose if they were both wrong anyway
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Yeah but I don't expect it. was having such a good week as well, until I changed from Manly and followed the cricket score.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Baggy........I'll push your tips through.
As long as they're in the comments before kick-off that's fine.
Nice tipping Coach
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Nice try with getting as bite out of me Baggy. We all know Penrith Parra is the feircest local derby of the year. Unlike any other NRL rivalry. Any place, any time. Farthest corner of the country. No worries. Funny, we live and work in each other's pocket, but once players are out on the field, you won't get a ground filled with more hate and total desperation to claim bagging rights, but much more importantly, not have to cop it if the unthinkable happens. Cop it sweet from any other team after a loss but a Parra loss takes a while to get over. Good luck Parra (disguised as 'hope you lose by a 100').
Gotta love this game.
Submitted by The Thinker on
re: getting that games list from Coach.
I wanted to have a look and see if I could find any patterns in the games that followed those games.
So I was looking at the following:
How short priced favourites that won as expected performed the week after.
I had a suspicion they may perform below expectations in the game that followed...but I've been wrong before (as my tips for Friday night prove).
Here's the order of results for such teams (i.e. the result in the round that followed a short-priced comfortable victory):
L, L, W (controversial golden point win), L, B, B, L, L, L, W, W, W, W, W, W, L (last night...the Bunnies).
Is that a pattern? It's a pretty small sample so its hardly definitive. It does look like the pattern flips on its head at some point in the season, but its a small sample.
Anyways, its another small patch of evidence for my theory that backing unexpected results early in the season is a more profitable exercise than backing them late in the season.
And why? Because punters make assumptions based on smaller samples - we have a better idea of how good or bad teams are later in the season because we've seen a lot more of them.
Oh well....back to the lab
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Manly were unbackable to make top 4 yesterday. Literally. They weren't even a betting option because it was so unlikely it was s joke. Now a day later, they are $11 to take 4th away from Souths. What a difference a day makes.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
So here is what streak theory says about last night. Manly snuck up to 7. Can make 10, even 11, but one loss in the next 3, and top 4 is out the door.
As for Souths, its much more interesting. They now sit on 9 with three streaks of 3. The only way to get to 10 is to now win 4 straight. That's their only chance of top 4.
Streak theory is going ok, huh?
Submitted by teach-me on
Hi all, just a quick message to coach_potato,
Regarding your streak theory, would it be rude to ask for a quick explanation? Is everyone looking to understand why sometimes the favourite is defeated?
Submitted by Thinker's Little Helper on
Hey Baggy_Gee, just letting you know I've added your tips for this round to the system.
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