Brisbane Broncos vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium
It's fair to say the Broncos last performance surprised most of us. I mentioned last week that the margin of their victories at home is significantly larger than their victories away, and for that reason I'll be tipping them here. That said, my confidence in the Broncos has been shaken - trust them to lose the week I announce them as my premiership pick. The additions to the Bulldogs side only strengthen an outfit that gave the Chickens a contest in round 21 - Rona and Pritchard have scored 23 tries this season, and Tolman adds starch to a pack that already had plenty of starch. Moses Mbye has to be the best rugby league player to come out of Africa ever, and he clearly has a future in the game. Broncos just, and it's the game of the round.
Verdict – Broncos by 4
Manly Sea Eagles vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Friday night – Brookvale Oval
Oh Manly! He came and he gave without taking, but you sent him away. Oh Manly!
The lads from Manly stood up and delivered for their outgoing coach last weekend. I suppose they could do it again, and I suppose they could make some sort of run at the finals from here. I'll believe it if they can back up the effort last start with a similar effort this start. In the meantime my tip is based on the outcome the last time these sides met. Manly competed but the Bunnies always looked like they'd get there, and they got there with Reynolds off the field with concussion. With a top four finish in sight I can't see the Bunnies taking their eyes off the prize.
Verdict – Rabbitohs by 8
New Zealand Warriors vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Saturday afternoon – Westpac Stadium
The Warriors have taken games to Westpac Stadium on seven occasions...for one victory. Since Super League, these sides have met on 22 occasions...for 4 Warriors victories. They've lost their most important player in Shaun Johnson - one of not many players in this competition that can pick up a game and win it on their own, and their opponents are backing up from a confidence-boosting performance. It's the Red V for me.
Verdict – Dragons by 2
Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – Remondis Stadium
The Sharks are on a decent roll - dragging better teams down to their level and beating them with experience. No doubt a similar strategy is planned for Saturday night, and Jonathan Thurston can certainly get frustrated when things don't go right. Paul Gallen and Michael Ennis won't have any qualms about niggling him off his game. Will it work? I think it can, but it won't be pretty.
Verdict – Sharks by 2
Parramatta Eels vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday night – TIO Stadium (Darwin)
When I was younger (so much younger than today), I was a much bigger idiot than I am now. One night I was celebrating with the lads in the beautiful mid-town district of Rockhampton. Base camp on such occasions was a van owned by a mate. On one such occasion I'd had a little more to drink than any human should and managed to fall asleep in the back of the van. Now usually this wouldn't be a problem, but the rest of the boys decided the best thing to do was leave the van overnight and pick it up the next day. Consequently, I woke up many hours later inside a car-shaped oven baking in the capricorn sun. Feeling a touch dehydrated and close to death, I dived for the esky in the back of the van and found a one litre bottle of ginger ale with my name on it. I guzzled like I was in a Solo commercial. Seconds later I realised that at least half that bottle of ginger ale was scotch, and seconds after that I did a very good job of coating the inside of the van with most of what was in my stomach. I managed to get the door of the van open and stumbled out into the day, frightening an elderly couple who were walking their dog. Little did they know I was closer to death than they were. My only option was to start the ardous journey home on foot. Vultures circled overhead and I saw colours that I haven't seen since...but I lived to tell you the tale. I tell you this tale because I watched that hideous Titans/Eels game, and I swear to you I would rather re-live that Rockhampton experience than watch a replay of that game. I cannot possibly tip the team that lost on Monday night. A rare Panthers victory looms.
Verdict – Panthers by 10
Melbourne Storm vs Gold Coast Titans – Sunday afternoon – AAMI Park
With reference to the story I told you above...I had to go back and clean out the van. After eight hours in the Rockhampton sun it wasn't pretty, but it was still prettier than that game on Monday night. The Storm at home on a bounceback after a surprise loss. Bellamy will have them firing.
Verdict – Storm by 20
Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters – Sunday afternoon – Hunter Stadium
Next week the Knights face the Tigers, and the loser of that game is your likely wooden spoon winner. This week the Knights are all about losing, but with their points differential looking a bit sick they don't want to lose by too much. Even that could be a stretch target for the Novacastrians - the Roosters have scored 71 points in the last fortnight while the Knights have conceded 98. The Dragons managed 46 points last week so if the Chooks bring their A-game they could post a cricket score. They could declare at halftime and send the Knights out again.
Verdict – Roosters by 22
Canberra Raiders vs Wests Tigers – Monday night – GIO Stadium
If games fall the right way the Raiders can be in the top eight with a win here. Meanwhile there'll be strategists in camp Tiger wondering if they'd be better off forfeiting the points and staying home. For the next seven days the minimum temperature in the capital is below zero. Monday night is still some way away, and weather forecasters can get it wrong, but I think we can safely assume it will be cold. They're also forecasting 25km/h westerlies on Monday afternoon and evening. The Tigers won't want to leave their hotel rooms, and once they do they'll just want to go back. Are rugby league players allowed to wear mittens? A victory for the elements...and the green machine.
Verdict – Raiders by 4
Wally Lewis - round twenty-two selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.
- BRONCOS vs Bulldogs
- SEA EAGLES vs Rabbitohs
- Warriors vs DRAGONS
- Sharks vs COWBOYS
- Eels vs PANTHERS
- STORM vs Titans
- Knights vs ROOSTERS
- RAIDERS vs Tigers
Comments
Submitted by The Thinker on
Nice work little helper
By the way, your wife just arrived at my house....she asked me to remind you to do the washing.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Oh sorry - thought I would lose people who haven't read from early in the season.
My theory tested against decades of results and proven, is that to make the top 4 by seasons end a team needs to have 10 wins or more from a maximum of 3 winning streaks. Single wins don't count, only a streak of two or more, and only your best three. Teams could still finish 5th 6th or 7th with the magic 10, but almost impossible to make top 4 if you don't have 10 in the bank. Eg 4, 3, and 3 = 10, but also 5, 2, 2, and 2 would only equal 9. Only 3 streaks can be counted.
At the moment Souths have 3, 3, and 3 = 9. But to get to 10, they need 3, 3, and 4. They need to win all 4 games left. That's looking doubtful. So top 4 for Souths seems a long shot.
There are currently four teams that have made 10. Brisbane (15) Cowboys (15) Rooster (12) and Sharks (10). This doesn't mean that this will be the top 4. Just means that these four teams have passed the test to be a top 4 team.
Manly have 2, 2, and their current streak of 3 =7 so if this streak gets to 6 they would be 2, 2, and 6 =10 and a chance at top 4.
St George have 6, 2, and a win last week. Means if they beat Warriors they would be 6, 2, and 2 =10 and crazily a top 4 chance again.
Storm only have 3, 2, and 2. They need a 5 streak. Again, they need to win their last 5. Unlikely.
Hope this helps.
Submitted by teach-me on
Thank you, you explained it simply. Is there a theory why streaks are a positive?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
A second streak theory, also proven through the years is that the Premiership winner only comes from a team with one of the best 3 streak scores. That means Brisbane, Cowboys, and one other. Either Roosters or Sharks, or how crazy - St George. If Roosters win this week, it just about seals the fate for 13 other teams. If they lose this week, Sharks and Dragons could equal them on 12 but will be tough for both.
5 weeks from semis, and we are down to only 5 teams that can win. Regardless of Manly winning their next 4, or Souths reviving and winning their next 4. Won't make a difference. Neither can win the comp now.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Yes. My theory on streaks is similar to what people often describe as momentum. Through September/October a team obviously needs to show they can win games on end. But year after year, it shows that only the teams that are best at winning games on end, or one of the best, end up with the trophy.
Submitted by teach-me on
Has this theory benefited you financially?
Submitted by had a gut full on
Have been following this page for 3 yrs, to help with tipping etc. But so sick of this couch potato wanker filling up the feed with his NSW dribble... sound to me like an overweight, alcoholic bogan, who sits around swearing at the ref's on the tv. Bye
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Easy answer for you then isn't it gut?
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Thinker & Thinker's Little Helper I hope you can put my tips through for me for next week's round. I am lucky enough to be travelling to Vanuatu tomorrow morning for a week of rest and relaxation. I'm just not sure how reliable the Internet will be there so here are my tips...
Cowboys, Broncos, Tigers, Panthers, Roosters, Manly, Dogs & Storm
Many thanks!!
Submitted by a on
Cowboys will be on 1st after tonight
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
You have the hard life Steel........ Hope you enjoy your travels. And TLH thank you very much, I'll behave and get them in on time next weekend.
It's interesting that the Eels have a running comp with the Dog for membership numbers and everyone pushes the Eels/Dogs rivially, but there is nothing better than beating the Panthers. Especially at Pepper Potts Stadium.
There has to be a team that you love watching your team get up and beat. Leave a comment with your team and the best opponent to beat. Am interested if they are "traditional" rivals.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Have a great holiday Steel. If you haven't been there before make sure you get to the Mele Cascades.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Cronulla hit 11, St George hit 10.
Can the Knights possibly stop the Roosters on 12?
Sounds crazy but feels like its about to happen.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
I don't know what it is about games up in Darwin. We played terribly last year, and I'm guessing from the score we haven't played much better this year, or last week end. I had high hopes from the start of the year with a bunch of younger guys getting ready for their second season in the top grade, but the year has been a kick in the guts as a supporter.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Sounds like you got the score wrong Baggy. Parra won.
Unfortunately my losing streak theory is spot on. Only four teams with a 10+ losing streak.
Newcastle 12
Wests 11
Gold Coast 11
Penrith 11
There's your bottom 4.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
No we won the game as well last year, but it was a horrible game and we only got the win by the skin of our teeth.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Your team is still in the race for the finals, which is better than the outlook of mine.
Any Parra team with a fit Radradra is chance of beating any other team. Roosters, Manly, Cronulla, Canberra. Need to win all 4, but only try and win one game at a time, they might just get there.
Submitted by Ian on
"Sharks won't win this..." Hhmm
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I think JR and anyone else would be excused for thinking Cowboys would be too good, Ian. They had their best team running around. You're right though. People will have to start taking notice. Beat Roosters twice. Now beat Cowboys twice?
It seems pretty easy for a whole list of one-post wonders to have a go at regular contributors to this page. That's because they won't offer you the 8/8 that they tip every week. Beyond fault. Truth be known they dont want everyone to know they are no better.
Submitted by Rick on
......................................Well said Coach on your last post.
Submitted by Sammy on
Couldn't agree more.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
The future looks good for the BOYS. Saddened thought that a bright start has fizzled out in to a "mathematically possibility" of making the eight. We all know what that means. But there have been some good younger BOYS coming through.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Parra need to win the last 4, but what could be better than to get the Roosters next. Win and that would really tell a team something, right?
Same thing that beating Broncos and Souths told Manly, same thing that beating the Cowboys told Cronulla. Both worthy of a place in September. If Parra beats Roosters next week, you would have to say they would be entitled to think the same. Its only one game but one way or the other, is sure to define their season.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Your dead right Coach, and the Roosters seemed falliaible against the Knights. I like the combination of Brad and Sami down the left, still worrying about our edge defence. We bunch in, there seems to be a lack of faith in the inside man.
Submitted by a on
Eels really need to beat the Roosters
Submitted by Coach Potato on
It's the myth about numbers in defence. All it does is open up space. Rely on outside backs to defend on their own and you have players like Jennings and Tuivasa-Sheck running rings around you.
Committing numbers has allowed players who can't defend, flopping in and racking up 30 tackles a game. It's decreased the emphasis on the ability to tackle one on one. The team who shows they have the best defenders one on one, thats what a team needs to work towards.
Submitted by tigerholic on
Morning Mr Thinker
On Friday afternoon I made a change to my tips in that I went back to the tipping sheet and changed my tip from Cowboys to the Sharks, the form said that my change was successful and had been submitted but this morning I had a quick peek to see how things were going and my tip still showed Cowboys.
I made the change whilst I was still at work and that was at about 4.00pm, is there any way that you can have your helper check to see that this is what happened.
Cheers and Go the TIGERS tonight.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Breaking News: the NRL have signed a new agreement with Channel Nine from 2018. Some big changes to scheduling - Thursday night game (probably replacing Monday night), one less round each season (25 instead of 26) and a Sunday night for State of Origin - game two.
More to come....
Submitted by The Thinker on
Tiger,
We will have a look at the logs and see what we can find.
All the best
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
# Bring Back The Bears !!! ;-D
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
I agree with the numbers in defence, its a horrible thing particularly since the ref's can't work out when held is held. Many a time has been when after standing stationary for an appropriate time, with 3 defenders, an off load has been popped for a 3 on 1 overlap. the art of the one on one has been lost, not just wrapping the ball up, but burying the player into the turf.
Submitted by a on
I hope Cowboys win next week
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Bears means Central Coast , and although they have long been a heartland of Rugby League, they really needed to join back in the 80s and 90s as part of the NSWRL - would have been easier. Too damn late now with NRL favouring teams spread far and wide. Even with Singo's backing you'll never a Bear team play NRL
Submitted by a on
I want more QLD teams in Rubgy league
Submitted by Coach Potato on
a, Gold Coast teams through the years have gone from one failure to the next, and what about the Crushers? Wasn't too long before you all decided yourselves their wasn't enough interest in another South Queensland team. Broncos love their dominance of fan support and will do their best to make sure that's never eaten into again. The other talk is another Perth team?!!! Helllllooooooooo!!!! anybody home??? We did all this before you bigwig numbskulls. Save Gold Coast, promote teams in South Qld, and Perth.??! Does the NRL suffer from dementia ???
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Yeah I know coach :-( Being honest with you mate Adelaide Rams, Ipswich Jets, Brisbane Bombers and Perth Pirates are four teams I would add to competition in favour of Central Coast Bears. Move Cronulla Sharks to Rockhampton and boom, baby ! There's your NRL lineup for 2018, 6 teams from Queensland, 9 teams from New South Wales, one team each from ACT, South Australia, Western Australia, Victoria and New Zealand ... :-)
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
The only reason why teams like Gold Coast and Perth folded back in 1998 was because as club they were obligated to pay for opposition travel (including airfare). Now that cost is covered by NRL and is paid for out of money from TV rights deal ... :-)
Submitted by Coach Potato on
What about the current Gold Coast version JR? Not long ago they were $30M in debt, and bailed out by the NRL. Salary cap and 3rd party breaches left right & centre. Prince's castle-gate. $300,000 fine but who paid. Oh yeah - the NRL had to pay itself. Probably claim it back on tax who knows. Now it's gonna be proven in court there are cocaine traffickers amongst the playing group. Any of several Sydney teams fall on hard times and where will the NRL bail out be then? Tigers who are sitting on a knifes edge should get a George Piggins-like upheaval going and take the NRL to the cleaners for a clear case of discrimination.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
You're saying Coach that Titans should never of been brought into competition back in 2007 I agree and I say that as fan. It should of been Perth, second team in Brisbane or Bears. Apparently they were brought in to compete against AFL who was set on introducing team on sunset strip, a place that NRL has always considered their terrority ... :-S
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Crooked property developers and shonky car park deals all the way through the history of the Gold Coast. First team saved so nowhere near the end of it unfortunately.Only guarantee is more shit to swallow from this job.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
.. I mean *mob
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Unbelievable man. Five upsets in a single round of football. What's mathematical odds of that happening ? Dude ! :-(
Submitted by a on
Lots of upsets happening
Submitted by Coach Potato on
The prices didnt say so, but the best team won every game.
Submitted by The Thinker on
The great advantage of a Perth team is the time zone.
A Saturday afternoon game in the west gets beamed onto the eastern seaboard in prime time. Daytime conditions...night time broadcast. Everybody wins....except the Central Coast.
And I'm not sure if this is just creative accounting or pub talk, but I have some faint memory that the Western Reds had cash in the bank and were making coin when they were an enterprise.
As for round 22 and the results, I'll get the tipping ladder updated as soon as I can....still trying to work out what to do with Tigerholic.....its complimicated.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
We need to shoot the move the sharks/any other club to another location dead. Two in the heart one in the head dead. The host city locals want a team that has their identity, culture and origin from the area, not a transplanted club that is pinning for the fjords. The NRL has to stop competing with the AFL, both markets need to accept that they have their spot in the Australian culture. Lets turn the money being poured into the clubs be used at a grass roots level and introduce a cap on coach's, CEO, CFO, and board members. Wayne isn't worth whatever huge amount he is on, but good on him for cashing in on his record and skills as a coach. Figures punted around with the new deal, 11.5 Mill for salary cap, 12 Mill grant to the clubs per year. If they brought the cap down to 10 Mill that's 2 Million that can be funnelled into growing the game at a junior level, ensuring that the game grows like the AFL does. But 30 Mill to prop the Titans up is 30 Mill that isn't being properly used.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
I'm with Baggy Gee. Instead of Bears let's called them Central Coast Cossacks with a bunch of backwards C's and upside down L just for added effect. I'm off to print up some merchandise now just so they decide to use it I can claim residuals. Thinker let Tigerholic have his points. With this many upsets this week I don't think it's going make that much difference to leaderboard though I would say that being that far behind everybody else now. Godamn refs :-(
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Tiger's two clear even with his bad tip. How about put the investigation on hold for 4 weeks. Chances are good it won't come into it. He'll probably win without the extra one, or lose and the extra wouldn't have helped.
The other line is the tried and true one I have used running comps. "You can say you sent it, but if I didn't receive it, then I didn't receive it. "
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Just give fans what they deserve NRL. Day time, day long 3PM main game Grand Final. God its been a long time.
October long weekend can be stinkin' hot. What a great celebration BBQ event. AFL have never failed in giving the fans what they want. BBQ every year.
Imagine 20 minutes to go, its stinkin' hot, players out on their feet, tackling themselves into exhaustion. Then a bomb goes up, straight up into the sun, and a champion comes down with the ball and scores. Daytime Grand Finals. Bring it back. You'll never beat it.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
You know what I never understood talking about NRL grand finals ? Why don't they have two teams who lost in the semi finals play off against one another for third place as curtain raiser for main game ? This idea I feel would also have alot of extra merit now that Holden Cup is due to be scrapped by 2018 ... ;-D
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