North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos – Friday night – 1300SMILES Stadium
It would be presumptious to assume this weekend will give us the best weekend of football we'll see this season, but it may also be true. The last four games between these two sides have given us some of the best rugby league you are ever likely to see. These sides met in round four where the Broncos prevailed in Brisbane by a point. Then they met again in round 11 where the Cowboys prevailed in Townsville by a point. That round 11 game was game number 250 for Jonathan Thurston, and his effort to lift his side over the line in the final ten minutes sums up everything about the man as a player and a competitor. The Cowboys are short favourites on Friday...a little too short if you ask me. The Broncos were clinical in their disposal of the Storm in Melbourne in round 25, while the Cowboys struggled to get any sort of attack going throughout their loss to the purple machine last weekend. I'm hardly confident – we don't know what's happening with Jimmy the Jet (I'm assuming he won't be there) and that's a concern, but my biggest concern is goal-kicking. In what is likely to be a close game that could be the difference between winning and losing. I have more faith in Thurston handling the goal-kicking pressure over whoever puts their hand up for the Broncos (Kahu...probably). Note that when the Cowboys won by a point in round 11, the Broncos kicked just 1 of 3 conversions, while Thurston didn't miss a thing. They aren't meeting in a grand final again, but I'm glad we get to see these two sides one more time this season. The Broncos are $2.75 for a reason. Perhaps I'm mis-reading the formlines badly, but I'm with the visitors.
Verdict – Broncos by 2
Result - Cowboys 26 defeated Broncos 20
Canberra Raiders vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday night – GIO Stadium
The two best backlines square off in what should be a points frenzy on Saturday night. Those named in jerseys 1 through 7 have scored 75 tries for the Raiders and 62 tries for the Panthers this season. On face value that looks like the Raiders have an edge in attack, but if you dig deeper you'll notice an important change that has taken place with the Panthers this season. At the start of the year I was critical of the Panthers in attack. In the first nine rounds of the year they were scoring virtually the same total every game - it didn't seem to matter who they were playing, they were stuck in a range between 12 and 23, and I pointed out (quite rightly) that it wasn't enough. If the Panthers wanted to make the top eight their attack needed to improve. It has. Things started to click when Coach Griffin made some key changes in key positions. Wallace got shifted out of the halves and into the number 9 jersey, Jamie Soward got shifted to London and James Segeyaro got shifted to Leeds. This current Panthers spine (Wallace, Cartwright, Cleary and Moylan) works, and the Panthers backline is singing on the back of it. They've scored 199 points in their last six outings and they're playing with a confidence that is both infectious and entertaining. The Raiders attack has been much the same, but while things changed for the better for the visitors, things have changed for the worse with the Raiders. Josh Hodgson is their best player and he's probably one of the five best in the NRL this season. He's been named, but I doubt he'll be there, and it would be even worse if they risked him and he pulled up after ten minutes. Blake Austin is a more likely inclusion, but he has been out of action for a while. So the Raiders face their most important game of the season thus far with line-up changes in key positions. Against most opponents you could back them to carry on, but not this opponent. This opponent is one of the few that can match the Raiders for points. The Raiders are a warm favourite and deserve to be at home, but it's the Black Cats I say. They are purring.
Verdict – Panthers by 8
Result - Raiders 22 defeated Panthers 12
Wally Lewis - finals week two (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.
- COWBOYS vs Broncos
- RAIDERS vs Panthers
Comments
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Oh I see. Must play out the 5 each way. No sign of field goal.
I think we've found our Golden Point solution.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Penalty tackle 4 to get the ponies attacking.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
It's an elegant solution isn't this. Catch Darius. Legend.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Broncos play droppsy when it matters.
Like clockwork.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Suck shit Sprocket
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Godamn Cowboys ! https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=09uwXcagGN0 Broncos :-(
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
An appropriate result. I think that ties them up at 2 close wins each in golden point in the last four games.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Nice song choice JR.
Submitted by fortresseagle on
What a game by both clubs so close just some critical errors cost the broncos in the end I thought it would be high scoring and close.
Bad luck mark and rocket u should and your club hold your heads up they gave it there all great effort just fell short boys.
Now for another great game tommorrow good evening to all .
Submitted by GaryChesterUK on
I reckon a week is enough time to recover after this battle. I fancy the Cowboys to beat the Sharks next week
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Hey Gary why didn't you have the 80 minute tie?
It's all there in the name.
Chester.
Chester draws.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
No I disagree Gary, this was and has been billed as the gf replay. Mentally I don't see the cowboys coming back from such a monumental build up especially after the glaring similarities to last year's one. They will be there, but MIA next week.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Speaking of MIA..
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Darius again? Give rocket a chance to swallow the bitter taste of defeat. I took a few days off after my gf loss this year.
Submitted by The Thinker on
I'm here......just got home.
I said it in my preview and I'll say it again. I'm glad we got to see these two sides play each other in the finals.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
So are all of NSW
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Qld's best team goes into a Sydney Prelim busted as.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Interestingly...in grand final markets that are open, the Cowboys are $3.50 to win the flag...and the Sharks are $4.50.
The Sharks have a big pack of forwards and speedy little guys to take advantage of any tired legs...and they'll be at home. It won't be easy, but I'm not going to say the Cowboys can't do it.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
90 minutes in the tropical humidity.
Nowhere else in the country can you get gassed as bad.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Hear it first here. The Cowboys WON'T make it. Last 4 games since the 2015 GF have been close with extra time, the rivalry between the 2 teams at an all time high, (great song, name the movie) and the Cowboys got up for their biggest game regardless what they say to the media, Little Brother bet Big Brother. Mentally MIA next week. Sharks by 14.
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Well done cowboys we have again fell short but the better team has won felt like we were hanging on all second half big games from the two JTs.
For the rest of the year I support the cowboys and whoever is playing the panthers.
The coach and baggy commentry was hilarious.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Haha no worries.
Well done.
A bit of class for a change.
Don't know about npt the better team.
Piece of sheer stupidity by Gillette is the reason they aren't moving on.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
But at least we were impartial both ways.
Submitted by a on
Cowboys will beat Sharks next week
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Juries out on Ponga. Will resume next game if he plays.
If Wingers twin is fit, I doubt Ponga gets a jumper.
I understand he's only 18 but also understand this isn't NYC.
In NYC you can walk through a gap in the defence.
Is he up to NRL? Possibly. Could be be a superstar? Possibly, but possibly not as well.
Sure he might have big potential, but what does it say about the Cowboys depleted troops when they choose to blood the kid in such a game. I think it tells a story. If there was any plan to use him by season's conclusion, it would have started before September Wk2.
There was no plan. Injuries forced their hand. They had noone else.
Cowboys. They're a busted unit heading into Prelim 2016.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Wingers twin ????? I bloody typed Winterstein.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Was that the weirdest spell correct ?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Western Suburbs Melbourne or Western Suburbs Sydney guaranteed a Grand Final spot at the haloed MCG.
Go the Burds
Submitted by christine on
Coach I do get it not everyone thinks Penrith can or will win & they are entitled to air their opinion ...
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Isn't it a laugh that I said last year that Panthers squad would take on the Maroons and give a better account than the Blues.
People laughed their heads off. Put your hands up. Yeah you.
Next year there'll be Moylan, Mansour, Cleary, Cartwright, and Tamou at minimum.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
If Canberra go on to win the title, they will make history as the team with the least number of Origin players .
My theory that Premiers need Origin players still holds. Currently. the Raiders only have Papali. Panthers have Moylan, Mansour, and Wallace. These are three players who stood tall last week.
The line between Origin and Premiership is clear. Both require players who can compete at the highest level. Both involve the same level of game day pressure.
As far as I can see, Panthers have that now, and well, the Raiders don't. Had Austin and Wighton made the debuts this year, perspective would be different, but they didn't , and so their big game experience is not good,
Add to that Austin and Hodgson who may play, but cannot possibly be 100%. My guess is closer to 70%. You don't usually march too well with a broken spine.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
The reason that I want pongo and Hess, it's the potential that they have. Yes they might get into women, drugs and stupidity that blunts it, but the could be a Brad Takarangii, solid team player who has the skills. I just don't want to see them end up at a stacked club spinning their wheels.
Submitted by christine on
Who ever wins to nights game wins i'm going with home ground advantage because they will get the rub of the penalty's & if Penrith turn out to be the better team to night then so be it ...
Submitted by christine on
Cowboys played a hard game last night they would be a bit busted today from the game but can they do the same again next week playing sharks ?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
For all the things that this game meant, you would have to be disappointed that 1300 smiles wasn't a sell out last night. Not really even close. 23,800 in a stadium with capacity for 26,500. Close to 90% full but why wasn't it sold out?
Peppers has a 22,500 capacity and I don't have much doubt people would have been turned away at the gate if they had hosted the Bulldogs game. We all know that is currently an impossibility.
If the biggest game ever held at Townsville doesn't sell out, then there is now absolutely no reason to deny in future smaller clubs home ground advantage. If club ever desired to take the matter to court, the NRL would be screwed.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Waqa Blake is out with a busted shoulder.
Everyone saw that it was busted last week.
He was given til yesterday to show it was ok but failed.
Either Te Maire Martin or Zac Hardaker will straight replace.
My pick would be Martin. His defence is strong and his feet are good. Hardaker is no-nonsense but nothing flash either. Martin has 6 NRL games of 80 minutes, Zak has 1 NRL game of 80 minutes , and 9 games coming off the bench.
Martin debuted against the. Broncos and although named number 6, played right centre all night. He scored a try needing to beat two defenders, and kicked the winning field goal. If he wasn't up to it, surely something that night would have gone amiss.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Ricky Stuart's last meeting against Panthers at Finals time was 2003.
Coach of the Roosters and a Grand Final loss.
You need to go to 1991 to the previous time Stuart faced the Panthers in the Finals. As halfback of the Raiderz, again a Grand Final loss.
For 25 years, the Panthers have stuck in his craw.
One more time Panthers.
Stick it to Sticky.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Really?
Opening price for next week's game in Sydney is
Cronulla $2.20
Nth Qld $1.70
Really?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Obviously not based on using up 2wks of gas last night, and their Sydney finals record of only 4 from 11.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Obviously there is a code in those odds, either get on the sharks, or ............ the betting agents know the result already
Submitted by a on
Cowboys are faviourites to beat Sharks
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Why are they favourite a? Look beyond the numbers.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Coach has a good point 4/11 and a mental and physical game last night, I'd almost put the house on the sharks next week.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Looks like Hardaker is replacing Blake in the run-on, unless Griffin is about to play gotcha with Ricky by running on Martin.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Hmm, not so sure about the old switcharoo. I'd bet on an steady player over a young gun, I'd hate to run bevan French on the wing in a game like this.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
NYC Prelims for next week are set:
Dragons v Roosters
Panthers v Cowboys
Which one goes to AAMI though ?
If Panthers win tonight , both teams will play at AAMI I would say.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
They talk about Hodgson being needled up.
He won't feel a thing in the ankle.
Wouldn't that be enhancing his performance over not taking the needle and playing in unbearable pain ?
Not making him better than before the injury, but surely better performance than without the needle.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
No lack of feeling, will equal a lack of control. Might take away that step of his.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Been away from the puter for a bit but did watch the game.
Broncs played for 75 minutes and the Cows played for 85.
Congrats to "a" and tailspin on a good win.
Was a good game, both giving their all.
Coach the Cows aren't "gassed" what a pathetic comment.
Best laugh of the day was you offering Penrith to play the Maroons!
You need to get a grip on reality and take your hand off the other thing.
Saying that I wish your club well tonight...they are playing well.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I think painkillers just take away the pain.
What he won't know is when he aggravates the injury.
He will play on, and not even know.
Sounds performance enhancing to the layman.
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