Round twenty five selections

Canterbury Bulldogs vs North Queensland Cowboys – Thursday night – Belmore Sports Ground

How much difference does a venue make? Just five weeks ago the Cowboys held the Dogs scoreless while picking up 36 points of their own. That Bulldogs team and this Bulldogs team are virtually identical (minus Kasiano), and there's no indication that the Bulldogs form is improving. The big difference is the venue - the Bulldogs spritual home. Oddly enough, Belmore is a venue where Bulldogs coach Des Hasler lost every single game he played. He'll fare better as a coach at this ground, but a win on Thursday night looks unlikely. A Cowboys victory and they move into the top four, and if they retain that it looks like they'll be heading to Melbourne for the first week of the finals. Worst reward ever.

Verdict – Cowboys by 10

Result - Cowboys 24 defeated Bulldogs 16

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos – Friday night – AAMI Park

The Storm get two chances to wrap up the minor premiership this season. A win here and the J.J Giltinan Shield is theirs. A loss and they take on the only team that can take that trophy away from them next week. That's a nice little buffer to have, but I'm sure they'd prefer to wrap it up this Friday night. Like the Thursday night game we have one team hoping for a dramatic turnaround on the result the last time these sides met. The difference here is that the Storm are back at home, after tearing the Broncos apart in Brisbane in round 17. Not a lot went right for the Broncos that night, and the Storm were at their brutal best in what I think was the most dominant performance of the season so far. It's unlikely they'll be that good again, but they don't have to be. The Broncos have clearly improved since then...a lot. A win in Melbourne and they move ahead of the team that loses on Thursday on the ladder. That goes a long way toward ensuring a home final, and everyone wants a home final. Statistically, the Broncos beat the Storm in Melbourne more often than they beat them in Brisbane, but 2 wins from 6 isn't something to cheer about. It just so happens that the Storm have a better win rate at Suncorp than they do at AAMI Park. It's a curious one...but it's true. In a round full of great games this is one of them. The Broncos to shake the life out of this contest...and just fall short. If it comes down to field goals the composure of Cronk and Smith will get them over the line.

Verdict – Storm by 1

Result - Broncos 26 defeated Storm 16

Manly Sea Eagles vs Canberra Raiders – Saturday afternoon – Brookvale Oval

The last game of the year at Brookvale and the faithful can pay their respects to Jamie Lyon who has played his last game for the club. He may not be the only one, with doubts over Brett Stewart and Steve Matai returning to the NRL next season. All three deserve a send-off and what's left of the Manly side will give their all but they just don't have the cattle. A win for the Green Machine and they, at least temporarily, move into the top two. They also welcome back Hodgson, Lee, Vaughan and Fensom this week. The Raiders are the feel good story of 2016. Just too good.

Verdict – Raiders by 10

Result - Raiders 44 defeated Sea Eagles 30

Gold Coast Titans vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday night – Cbus Super Stadium

Here's a game of football. 7th plays 8th and the winner is absolutely guaranteed a top eight finish. Both sides bring handy form into this clash - the Titans have lost just once since 17 and the Panthers just once since round 18. Oddly enough, that one loss for each side was against the Warriors. These sides faced off in round 11 in Penrith and the Titans prevailed 28 points to 24. Since then the Titans have added Nathan Peats, Konrad Hurrell and Jarryd Hayne to their roster, while the Panthers have unearthed Nathan Cleary. The Panthers record against top eight teams this season has been poor, but they are peaking at the right time. I lean their way on the basis that their recent form looks stronger. They ploughed through the Tigers last week, while the Titans beat them by a solitary point. They took the Warriors to golden point in New Zealand, while the Titans lost to the Warriors on the Gold Coast. The Panthers beat the Chooks convincingly, and that's the only game the Roosters have lost in four rounds. It's the game of the round. Panthers.

Verdict – Panthers by 4

Result - Panthers 15 defeated Titans 14

Cronulla Sharks vs Sydney Roosters – Saturday night – Southern Cross Group Stadium

If the season was four weeks old the Sharks would be on one point and the Roosters would be on six (including convincing wins over both grand finalists from last year). Sadly for the Chooks the season has been longer than that...much longer. The current vein of form just shows what the Red White and Bluesters could have done this season, but didn't. As for the Sharks, well you could almost feel sorry for them. Almost. It looks like the pressure of expectation is weighing them down like the Australian swim team. Despite that, I'm actually going to tip them here. They are hanging onto their top two spot by a thread, and if they want to keep it they really need to win this game given the challenge that awaits them in round 26 in Melbourne. It's the last game of the season at Shark Park and those rabid fans in the Shire can push their boys over the line.

Verdict – Sharks by 2

Result - Sharks 37 defeated Roosters 12

New Zealand Warriors vs Wests Tigers – Sunday afternoon – Mt Smart Stadium

With 7th playing 8th earlier in the round this is a live game - the winner has (some) hope of making the eight, while the loser can officially schedule their end of season silliness. These sides did play earlier this year but it was a while ago, with the Tigers prevailing 34-26 at Campbelltown. This time the Warriors are without Tuivasa-Sheck and Issac Luke while the Tigers are without Tedesco. I'm leaning to the home side but not with the confidence of some. If the Tigers haven't given up this could be one of the games of the round. Sadly, that loss last week looked a little bit like giving up. Who knows what sort of weather they're facing in Auckland but if conditions are fair this should be very entertaining indeed.

Verdict – Warriors by 4

Result - Tigers 36 defeated Warriors 24

Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Sunday afternoon – Hunter Stadium

Those wascally wabbits. This is the Old Boys game for the Knights and I had them pegged as winning this. I didn't expect the Rabbitohs to start trying (and winning). I'm still bl00dy tempted I tells ya, but I can't quite do it. It wouldn't be fair to the two people who don't bother to read my ramblings here and just go straight to my tip and follow it without thinking for themselves. I will say this though - I'm going to have a bet. I'm backing the Knights with 14.5 points head start at $1.77. There...I said it. Gamble responsibly.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 4

Result - Rabbitohs 34 defeated Knights 12

Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Monday night – Pirtek Stadium

Not a lot to motivate either side but I have to find a winner and this is how I'm doing it. This is the Eels last game at home this season and quite frankly they should go out and win for those fans loyal enough to get out there on a Monday night for a fundamentally meaningless fixture. The Dragons can do the same next week against the Knights. To those of you that get to the game...I salute you. To the Dragons fans that get to the game...I'll buy you a drink.

Verdict – Eels by 14

Result - Eels 30 defeated Dragons 18

Wally Lewis - round twenty-five selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

  • Bulldogs vs COWBOYS
  • STORM vs Broncos
  • Sea Eagles vs RAIDERS
  • TITANS vs Panthers
  • SHARKS vs Roosters
  • WARRIORS vs Tigers
  • Knights vs RABBITOHS
  • EELS vs Dragons

Comments

The Thinker's picture

Raiders winning strike rates this season:

When Austin plays - 81.25%
When Austin doesn't play - 40%

mark ashford's picture

Thinker that is a worry.
I'm not a Ricky lover or hater but you have got to admit he's done a good job this year.
This will test him and the team.
Just read some Broncs/Storm win stats. Not very encouraging.

christine's picture

I'm changing my tips for rd 25
cowboys
storm
raiders
panthers
roosters
warriors
souths
eels
Hope everyone has a great weekend

Coach Potato's picture

Interesting tactics with 'a' and Mark changing, and Newbie sticking.
Please know you all could have said stuff ya, I'm stickin with the Rabbits. The choice is still yours and you can take Souths back if you want. I just don't want to feel like I was responsible for knocking people out.

Coach Potato's picture

How about if Gold Coast lose their last two, Hayne quits and joins the Raiders.

Even better, how about if Gold Coast make it to the Prelim but lose, then quit and join one of the Grand Final teams.

mark ashford's picture

Christine.
Good to see your tips in.
I too will be back in 2017 and would like to see you in the tipping comp.
If Thinker can't fit you in (providing you want to be there) I would happily give up my spot so you can be included.
I came in at 2nd last year and was rewarded with a Broncs shirt.
So I think I have done well and now it's someone else's turn.
Who knows you may just win it!
I'll still be involved of course just joining "a"s non tippers comp.
My stoush with Coach will continue for as long as this site is here.
Don't get me wrong I love Coach and enjoy the rivalry.
Just as I love all the posters here. Fortress & BigPete are specials along with everyone else.
Hope you too have a good weekend and are well.

Coach Potato's picture

Hey Jarryd, any chance you will retire never to be the best at any sport, not a title to your name?

mark ashford's picture

Coach I think Hayne won a SOO series back in 2014.
Apart from that you are right. Will he take the Titans to the finals only time will tell.
Are you worried about the Hayne factor? must be, you are leaving the Broncs alone for a change.
Big crowd at CBUS for this one last home game.
Titans to beat your Panthers in a close one.

Coach Potato's picture

Couldn't be a worse time taste in the mouth if this team wins the comp, an NRL owned team who had its salary cap breaches paid for by NRL grants to the club of the same amount shortly afterwards, who didn't get docked any competition points, who had $30M of debt covered, who had a number of players all but convicted of drug trafficking, and somehow nothing ever came of it, who now have somehow squeezed Hayne into their team and told us all it was in the interests of the game. You can't be a league fan if you want this team to win.

mark ashford's picture

Coach you are worried. Your 'all but' comments seem to reveal the extent.
Titans are a compliant NRL team. Don't support them but will give your Panthers a test.
Don't worry about all that other stuff Coach just beat them.
Then you are vindicated.

a's picture

Look like Cowboys might be playing Storm in the finals

mark ashford's picture

Great game by the Cows "a" Dogs never in it.
JT is a superstar made them look ordinary.
Only Dog that stood up was Josh Jackson rate him highly.
T-Rex is a waste of food.

Coach Potato's picture

Ahh yes, and so with tonight's win, Cowboys streak score moves to 9, with a win next week making it 10 - and 10 being the score you need to make top 4.

The real table says the Bulldogs can come back and claim 4th spot next week, but streak theory says no - the Dogs can't improve on 9. 4th spot is down to either Cowboys or Broncos.

STORM 16
SHARKS 15
RAIDERS 12
BRONCOS 10
BULLDOGS 9
COWBOYS 9*
EELS 8
PANTHERS 7
TITANS 7
WARRIORS 7
TIGERS 7
SEA EAGLES 7
DRAGONS 6
RABBITOHS 6
ROOSTERS 2
KNIGHTS 0

a's picture

So I reckon we will play Storm the 1st week

christine's picture

Mark the reason I say I don't know about being in the comp next year is because I don't know how having treatment for my ms is going to affect me , this treatment can give you the ms virus in your brain ( hope it doesn't ) & there was a female were I went to for ms yoga that started loosing her sight from having treatment but then the treatment might not affect me at all so that's the reason why I thought I would wait & see how I go first next year & then i'll show all of you how it's done but I look forward to conversing with you again next season Mark . :>)

Doggie's picture

Dogs very ordinary. Cowboys very good. Mark, i agree, JT is a superstar and your right about t rex. I think about all the small forwards over the years that had plenty of ticker and played well above their weight. They would have loved to have some of his size.

mark ashford's picture

Coach I know you and I don't agree on a lot of things but that Titans cocaine scandal was a joke.
Carmichael Hunt was caught and dobbed in his mates Bird, Harrison (retired) and a couple of others who shot through to England, UK you know that other RL playing country.
Some other gambling hotshot was involved.
How on earth was this swept under the carpet?
It was front page news for weeks and then....gone.
If the NRL is serious about cleaning up the game how could this happen?

mark ashford's picture

Hi Doggie.
Think your boys missed the brute power of Kasiano.
Don't panic Des is too good a coach to get this far and fold.
Players like the Morris twins, your blond headed forward twins, Mbe, Reynolds and my "tough man" pick Jackson will still give it a shake.

Coach Potato's picture

Listen up. The NRL has just released its 2016 fan survey results and here are some of the findings.

*What team do you most like beating?
(A very nice way of saying which team do you hate the most?)
BUL 19%
BRI. 18%
MAN 18%
MEL. 17%
ROO 12%
SOU. 8%
DRA. 4%
PAR. 4%

Vindication #1.
It's not just me. I speak for a majority of fans.

*Should teams have a say in where their home finals are played (eg Cronulla at Southern Cross Stadium )

-Yes, they have earnt home ground advantage 77%
-No, it should be played at the bigger stadiums. 23%

Vindication #2.
It's not just me. I speak for a majority of fans.

* Should the Grand Final always be played in Sydney?

-Yes, it is the home of Rugby League. 74%
-No, it should be shared to the highest bidder 26%

Vindication #3.
It's not just me. I speak for a majority of fans.

Coach Potato's picture

C'mon Rocket. Got any pre-game prophecies?

Too busy umtangling those knots in the stomach?

Coach Potato's picture

Newbie, back me up. Surely it needs to be called the United Queendom.

mark ashford's picture

Coach firstly I would question where the survey was taken.
Did QLD or VIC fans get a say? I doubt it.
I know you think Syderney is the centre of the world.
It's a national comp Coach and always will be.
How about we take the Broncos, Storm, Cowboys and the Titans out and we can watch your NSWRL fizzle into insignificance.
Vindification is good when it makes sense .

Coach Potato's picture

If eleven of the teams were from Qld, and only five teams were outside of Qld, I would concede that's the home of Rugby League.

That's not the case though. It's entirely not the case.

Coach Potato's picture

Share the Melbourne Cup with Eagle Farm?
Share the AFL G/F with the Gabba?
Each time, tell me you don't say " Your bloody joking".

fortresseagle's picture

Broncos on fire in the first half, the minor premership could still be up for grabs. Very interesting.

mark ashford's picture

Coach have a look who's in the top 8 with the Titans about to join them.
Have a look at the quality of this game tonight.
This is GF quality whoever wins.
Your Syderney teams don't put up this sort of football.

The Thinker's picture

Coach,
I was at the Broncos vs Bulldogs game last Thursday night. The crowd was 28.000, and I'd say 10000 of them were Bulldogs fans. This is the element of the Brisbane rugby league community you fail to understand. There are a lot of league fans in Brisbane that aren't Broncos fans. Many people in Queensland have a team in the NRL that pre-dates the inclusion of the Broncos. Off the top of my head, the dogs, rabbits, dragons, warriors, eels and tigers would all get 20000+ supporters to a grand final in Brisbane. Easily.

The game would sell out in an hour. If you want to hold on to your Sydney is the spiritual home of the grand final that is fine, but you can let go of your Brisbane won't support a grand final if the Broncos aren't in it argument.

Coach Potato's picture

No doubt there is support for all teams around the country but try telling me there won't be a sense of sour grapes if they host two visitors.

Then again, I'd love a Panthers Broncos GF @ Suncorp.
ANZ would be bigger though.

Rocket Ryan's picture

Bang

Coach Potato's picture

Well done Broncos. Tough solid win. I did think though that they have the teams covered with overly structured attack. It's the teams that can play both with and without structure that may be the nemesis.

Streak theory is smacking me in the gob at the moment. Broncos are now on 11. Next week they can make 12. That would tie Canberra for equal 3rd score and that means they could win the bloody comp. Canberra's winning run would have to stop at Brookvale this week though, but then how do they go without Austin?

Very p!eased with the theory's performance so far this year, just not so happy with the team's that are proving it.

STORM 16
SHARKS 15
RAIDERS 12
BRONCOS 11
BULLDOGS 9
COWBOYS 9
EELS 8
PANTHERS 7
TITANS 7
WARRIORS 7
TIGERS 7
SEA EAGLES 7
DRAGONS 6
RABBITOHS 6
ROOSTERS 2
KNIGHTS 0

Rocket Ryan's picture

Wow did you watch that coach

Rocket Ryan's picture

Coach have you getting plenty of fruit lately how did you like them apples.

Rocket Ryan's picture

Mark sadly only you and yours truely thought we could do it wonder how many will be on the roosters next week

Coach Potato's picture

Which week do Panthers and Broncos meet ?
1? 2? 3? or 4?

Week 4 would-be Dynamite, would be a Dream.

mark ashford's picture

The team that were at short odds to win the comp have just been beaten at home.
How many teams beat the Storm in Melbourne.
Broncos were unbelievable. Everyone stood up.
Coach you believe the Broncos have an overly structured approach?
Look what they did tonight. You are an idiot, not a true reader of the g ame.
Looking forward to the Titans flogging your Panthers.

Coach Potato's picture

Nothing like a pink lady.
Apples are good too.

a's picture

I think Broncos will play Titans in the finals this is what I think the finals will look like

Storm vs Cowboys
Raiders vs Sharks
Broncos vs Titans
Bulldogs vs Panthers

mark ashford's picture

Rocket, watch the boys go from here. Tossing the storm was just a hint of what we have to offer.
Cant wait to meet the Panthers again and show them what QLD does to inferior NSW teams

mark ashford's picture

Rocket, watch the boys go from here. Tossing the storm was just a hint of what we have to offer.
Cant wait to meet the Panthers again and show them what QLD does to inferior NSW teams

mark ashford's picture

Coach likes pink ladies, but I fear sour grapes will his to swallow.

Coach Potato's picture

What I meant Mark was Melbourne's penchant for set plays , "plays" into Broncos hands. Not questioning Broncos scoring ability. Just saying there are teams that will give their defence more to think about. Return to AAMI in week 1, I think the Broncos would be happy with that though.

Coach Potato's picture

One thing is guaranteed.
Whether Panthers and Broncos get to meet in week 1 , 2, 3, or 4 - regardless of when, it will end with one team knocking the other for six and out.

There's a month-ful of chances to meet and any week will do just fine.

mark ashford's picture

Coach believe what you want but I didn't see too many "set plays" from either team.
Both threw it around and tried side to side plays.
Broncos reads were better and so was their kicking game.
For a change we outplayed Storms forwards, Cronk and Smith.
Just the better team won on the night.

Coach Potato's picture

How many times did a Storm forward take it through the line and get an offload away? There was no second phase in their attack all night. Broncos had em covered. Don't want to take any shine away, just saying there'll be tougher games than that to come.

Coach Potato's picture

No argument. You got twice the adjectives from me.

fortresseagle's picture

Mark and rocket if you look at my tips I picked the broncos great win there best for a while, very open premership now should be very interesting indeed p

Rocket Ryan's picture

Funny how i have spent years sitting through games hoping the hayneplane doesn't take off or runs into touch now tonight i will out on the runway with flares a titans win would make my weekend.

a's picture

I don't see Broncos and Panthers meeting in the finals

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