Round twenty five selections

Canterbury Bulldogs vs North Queensland Cowboys – Thursday night – Belmore Sports Ground

How much difference does a venue make? Just five weeks ago the Cowboys held the Dogs scoreless while picking up 36 points of their own. That Bulldogs team and this Bulldogs team are virtually identical (minus Kasiano), and there's no indication that the Bulldogs form is improving. The big difference is the venue - the Bulldogs spritual home. Oddly enough, Belmore is a venue where Bulldogs coach Des Hasler lost every single game he played. He'll fare better as a coach at this ground, but a win on Thursday night looks unlikely. A Cowboys victory and they move into the top four, and if they retain that it looks like they'll be heading to Melbourne for the first week of the finals. Worst reward ever.

Verdict – Cowboys by 10

Result - Cowboys 24 defeated Bulldogs 16

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos – Friday night – AAMI Park

The Storm get two chances to wrap up the minor premiership this season. A win here and the J.J Giltinan Shield is theirs. A loss and they take on the only team that can take that trophy away from them next week. That's a nice little buffer to have, but I'm sure they'd prefer to wrap it up this Friday night. Like the Thursday night game we have one team hoping for a dramatic turnaround on the result the last time these sides met. The difference here is that the Storm are back at home, after tearing the Broncos apart in Brisbane in round 17. Not a lot went right for the Broncos that night, and the Storm were at their brutal best in what I think was the most dominant performance of the season so far. It's unlikely they'll be that good again, but they don't have to be. The Broncos have clearly improved since then...a lot. A win in Melbourne and they move ahead of the team that loses on Thursday on the ladder. That goes a long way toward ensuring a home final, and everyone wants a home final. Statistically, the Broncos beat the Storm in Melbourne more often than they beat them in Brisbane, but 2 wins from 6 isn't something to cheer about. It just so happens that the Storm have a better win rate at Suncorp than they do at AAMI Park. It's a curious one...but it's true. In a round full of great games this is one of them. The Broncos to shake the life out of this contest...and just fall short. If it comes down to field goals the composure of Cronk and Smith will get them over the line.

Verdict – Storm by 1

Result - Broncos 26 defeated Storm 16

Manly Sea Eagles vs Canberra Raiders – Saturday afternoon – Brookvale Oval

The last game of the year at Brookvale and the faithful can pay their respects to Jamie Lyon who has played his last game for the club. He may not be the only one, with doubts over Brett Stewart and Steve Matai returning to the NRL next season. All three deserve a send-off and what's left of the Manly side will give their all but they just don't have the cattle. A win for the Green Machine and they, at least temporarily, move into the top two. They also welcome back Hodgson, Lee, Vaughan and Fensom this week. The Raiders are the feel good story of 2016. Just too good.

Verdict – Raiders by 10

Result - Raiders 44 defeated Sea Eagles 30

Gold Coast Titans vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday night – Cbus Super Stadium

Here's a game of football. 7th plays 8th and the winner is absolutely guaranteed a top eight finish. Both sides bring handy form into this clash - the Titans have lost just once since 17 and the Panthers just once since round 18. Oddly enough, that one loss for each side was against the Warriors. These sides faced off in round 11 in Penrith and the Titans prevailed 28 points to 24. Since then the Titans have added Nathan Peats, Konrad Hurrell and Jarryd Hayne to their roster, while the Panthers have unearthed Nathan Cleary. The Panthers record against top eight teams this season has been poor, but they are peaking at the right time. I lean their way on the basis that their recent form looks stronger. They ploughed through the Tigers last week, while the Titans beat them by a solitary point. They took the Warriors to golden point in New Zealand, while the Titans lost to the Warriors on the Gold Coast. The Panthers beat the Chooks convincingly, and that's the only game the Roosters have lost in four rounds. It's the game of the round. Panthers.

Verdict – Panthers by 4

Result - Panthers 15 defeated Titans 14

Cronulla Sharks vs Sydney Roosters – Saturday night – Southern Cross Group Stadium

If the season was four weeks old the Sharks would be on one point and the Roosters would be on six (including convincing wins over both grand finalists from last year). Sadly for the Chooks the season has been longer than that...much longer. The current vein of form just shows what the Red White and Bluesters could have done this season, but didn't. As for the Sharks, well you could almost feel sorry for them. Almost. It looks like the pressure of expectation is weighing them down like the Australian swim team. Despite that, I'm actually going to tip them here. They are hanging onto their top two spot by a thread, and if they want to keep it they really need to win this game given the challenge that awaits them in round 26 in Melbourne. It's the last game of the season at Shark Park and those rabid fans in the Shire can push their boys over the line.

Verdict – Sharks by 2

Result - Sharks 37 defeated Roosters 12

New Zealand Warriors vs Wests Tigers – Sunday afternoon – Mt Smart Stadium

With 7th playing 8th earlier in the round this is a live game - the winner has (some) hope of making the eight, while the loser can officially schedule their end of season silliness. These sides did play earlier this year but it was a while ago, with the Tigers prevailing 34-26 at Campbelltown. This time the Warriors are without Tuivasa-Sheck and Issac Luke while the Tigers are without Tedesco. I'm leaning to the home side but not with the confidence of some. If the Tigers haven't given up this could be one of the games of the round. Sadly, that loss last week looked a little bit like giving up. Who knows what sort of weather they're facing in Auckland but if conditions are fair this should be very entertaining indeed.

Verdict – Warriors by 4

Result - Tigers 36 defeated Warriors 24

Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Sunday afternoon – Hunter Stadium

Those wascally wabbits. This is the Old Boys game for the Knights and I had them pegged as winning this. I didn't expect the Rabbitohs to start trying (and winning). I'm still bl00dy tempted I tells ya, but I can't quite do it. It wouldn't be fair to the two people who don't bother to read my ramblings here and just go straight to my tip and follow it without thinking for themselves. I will say this though - I'm going to have a bet. I'm backing the Knights with 14.5 points head start at $1.77. There...I said it. Gamble responsibly.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 4

Result - Rabbitohs 34 defeated Knights 12

Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Monday night – Pirtek Stadium

Not a lot to motivate either side but I have to find a winner and this is how I'm doing it. This is the Eels last game at home this season and quite frankly they should go out and win for those fans loyal enough to get out there on a Monday night for a fundamentally meaningless fixture. The Dragons can do the same next week against the Knights. To those of you that get to the game...I salute you. To the Dragons fans that get to the game...I'll buy you a drink.

Verdict – Eels by 14

Result - Eels 30 defeated Dragons 18

Wally Lewis - round twenty-five selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

  • Bulldogs vs COWBOYS
  • STORM vs Broncos
  • Sea Eagles vs RAIDERS
  • TITANS vs Panthers
  • SHARKS vs Roosters
  • WARRIORS vs Tigers
  • Knights vs RABBITOHS
  • EELS vs Dragons

Comments

Coach Potato's picture

With the AFL season finishing a week early this year, their regular season just finished.

Here is how the streak scores finished up

1 Geelong 16
2 Hawthorn 15
3 Adelaide 15
----------------------
4 GWS 13
5 Sydney 12
6 West Coast 12
7 North Melbourne 11
8 Western Bulldogs 9

Interestingly , both Swans (Minor Premier) and GWS (4th) are not in the top 3 scores meaning they're not meant to win the flag.

Also interestingly the Crows who finished 5th are one of he contenders. Well beaten by West Coast this week but anyway that's what the theory shows. Could be the first winner from outside the top 4 in Revised McIntrye System history.

Market
----------
Swans $3
Geelong $3.75
Hawthorn $5
GWS $7.50
Adelaide $12
West Coast $13
Bulldogs $51
Kangaroos $101

a's picture

Looks like the refs are out to ruin another finals serise

The Thinker's picture

BIgPete and Mark,
You both have a spot in the comp next year if you want it. As does Islander. A spot is there for Christine too if she wants it. She declined my offer and the offer from Mark. It's up to Christine and if she prefers not to be in the Comp that's fine with me.

I can make space for extras, but at some point I have to put a cap on it. There is a bit of effort involved to keep the site hanging together...and it's just about keeping the workload manageable...and keeping the tipping ladder displaying on one web page.

And I'm not from the Newcastle area and I never played for st George. I played plenty of sport as a youngster, was pretty good at a few, and pretty hopeless at league to be perfectly frank. But I do love the game. Always have. Always will.

Coach Potato's picture

Footy Chick regardless of tomorrow's game, you are starting the last week on top. So good luck Chick. Tip hot. Come first.

fortresseagle's picture

hey big pete yeah buddy all good look they put up a great fight mate,forthe killer jamie lyon.

i have heard around the traps and i mean a great source that we are looking for a big name for the forwards very soon and 5 eigth to partner cheery evans,john hopate will be coaching lower grade next year,and a mate of mine that knows john said that we are in secret talks to get back will hopate the dogs have said they are happy to let him go if all goes well a great winger and finisher dont worry mate watch this space we will kick butt next year .

anyways big pete hope to keep in touch after the season is over i support arsenal the gunners in the epl and we beat watford with a couple og signings to come as well i think the gunners could shock and take it out this year.

chat soon champion and from one great eagle to another have a great night and go the mighty sea eagles!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GaryChesterUK's picture

I had a bet on the Storm a few months back for the grand final @ 3/1 (4.0)

I have now had a go at NQ Cowboys @ 7/2 (4.5) - They have impressed for me since JT come back, were great on Thursday and I think that they may well go close.

To pay for these bets I have 'banged in' on over 38.5 points in the Eels v Dragons game on Monday morning (Monday night for you) - @ evens (2.0). I expect a points fest when i wake from my night out.

On a separate note I hope some of you caught Rashfords late winner for Utd against Hull (EPL) - that started the drinking which I am currently in the midst of - but i've caughts lots of NRL this weekend, its getting exciting! may the best men win!

Steel Panther's picture

Warriors Season 2016 - RIP

Another disgraceful display yesterday after being given a lifeline by the Panthers on Saturday. This is why it is so hard to support this club.

Tigerholic...well done to your lads for hanging in there and grinding out the win. There is talk about the Warriors getting a raw deal by the bunker but I'm not buying any of that. The so called "try of the season" that was disallowed deserved to be as there was a blatant forward pass that every official somehow missed. Kata waltzing over the line as if he'd scored before touching down only to have the ball punched out of his grasp sums it up for me. The tries conceded close to their own line were soft at best and hardly indicative of a team full of resolve and desire.

Five years since they let Cleary go after making a grand final and not once have they made the top 8. Another sad chapter written yesterday in a book already full of them.

Rant over.......

a's picture

Warriors were robbed but

Coach Potato's picture

Oh no.
The Daily Smell-o-graph report that Hayne could still play for NSW as well as pending allegiance to Fiji. International rules are set to change to allow this. Horrible.

Not just that Hayne will be playing when I don't think he should be, but you all know who else will be in blue. Semi Radradra. That's if he hasn't switched codes. Please switch codes Semi. Jarryd and Semi. NSW don't need you. NSW don't want you. We will have a dominant team next year without either of you.

Coach Potato's picture

I hear you Steel.
22 seasons done and no title.
Panthers 22nd season finished losing a mid-week play off to make the top 5 (to the Tigers!?)
Next year though we made the semis, the year after the Grand Final, and the year after that the Premiership.

Not time to give up. Time to recognise that you are building towards something.

christine's picture

Thinker thankyou for the offer to be in the comp next season but I don't want to commit myself incase my ms gets affected even more by having treatment but if it doesn't then the following season if the offer is still there then not a problem i'll be there , thankyou thinker I appreciate the thought .

Doggie's picture

Fortress, you can have Hopoate back but must take Trex as well. Package deal.

christine's picture

T rex has lost his umph .

Tailspin's picture

Holy crap, just had a look at next weeks line up, there is a lot of each ways and coin tosses there. Best of luck everyone

a's picture

I would love for you to be in the comp Christine

christine's picture

" a " Yeah I know you would like me to be in the comp but the treatment can affect my sight & it can also give me the ms virus in my brain which I don't have at the moment I just have scarring on my brain or plaque is the term they use , i have ms but i don't have the ms virus people who have the virus are even worse & think yourself lucky i'm not on the tipping ladder do you really want to tip against me" a " i don't think so you want to win a comp not have me beat you ,not next year maybe the year after depending how treatment goes ok .

Coach Potato's picture

Tonight could be the night. Only Newbie and Mark left, Mark with Parra tonight. If the Eels go down, Newbie gets the beanie. Would be good, I hear the Roosters ones are cheaper..

Sorry again Mark and 'a' for pushing you to tip again but I did give you the option to take Souths back

mark ashford's picture

No problem Coach was the right thing to do. Eels going ok.

BigPeteBx's picture

Thanks Thinker - would love to be part of Thinkers Comp.
One round to go in Non-Tippers and could get closer than it was. Pity I missed tipping Round 1.

I'd love to be in Main Comp for 2017 Season - so sign me up.

Thanks for other answers that were forthcoming.

Cheers and have a good week
Big Pete

BigPeteBx's picture

Hey Doggie - T-Rex has lost his growl and bite.

Drops the ball more often than an Arsenal goalkeeper.
He's a big fella with a powerful run, but he needs to time the run and control the bloody ball. He used to pee me off when at Manly and giving possession away so often.

BigPeteBx's picture

Evenin Christine - when is your treatment programmed for.
Did you say Feb 2017 some time back?

Your health is most important, to all of us. Hang in there and keep Thinker posted with progression of recuperation and you might just be spot on to join The Thinker Comp.

Keep well and God bless.

a's picture

How many people will be on the tipping ladder next year

a's picture

That okay Coach I should have stayed with Souths but or well at least I came 3rd hopefully I can do better next year

BigPeteBx's picture

Hey Coach - I saw the new Manly beanies on NRL Shop site. Pretty good for $25.00.

@ Fortress/Eagle Rocks - get a look at them guys. Might keep your ears nice and warm during Winter. Especially now the latino's have finished parading from Rio.

BigPeteBx's picture

Hey Gazza - u should wake up to a Parra win.

Yeah mate - Rashford a top finisher, and got Devils out of jail.

Enjoy a few Double Diamonds or Skols.
What is the favourite ale these days mate.

BigPeteBx's picture

Thanks for that Fortress - I see Vave has gone to Eels.
Will Hoppa will be good for our sprint machine.
We need to have the draw re-arranged for his sabbaticals. Not a real worry, with the depth we'll have.

For sure keep in touch. Thinker could send you my home email address . Permission granted Thinker, if Fortress wishes.
I might only get to exchange news every couple of evenings or so, but you'll hear from me. I have an EPL Fox Sports Tipping Comp going that I haven't closed the door on yet. Third Round just completed - no games this week (thus no tipping) as in recess for International Round. England plays Slovakia.

Not hard to catch up when Joker is used in one match each week. I'll need to close it soon, in case a few renegades or foreign's get in, that no-one knows. Its bragging rights only and free to play. Long season though that ends mid-May 2017.

@Thinker - is The Thinker site open all off season for member exchanges?

Coach Potato's picture

Newbie and Mark reach Last One On The Couch week 11.

Newbie picks from:
Game 3 - Dragons or Knights
Game 6- Tigers to beat Raiders
Game 7- Warriors or Eels

While Mark picks from:
Game 1- Roosters to beat Broncos
Game 2 - Souths to beat Bulldogs
Game 3 - Dragons or Knights
Game 6 - Tigers to beat Raiders

Just so that this thing finds a winner, it may need to have tips go head to head at some point. So as well as your main pick, you need to also go head to head in the Dragons Knights game.

Your main tip counts first and if that's enough to decide a winner, good and well. But if both win or both lose it will come down to the Dragons Knights tie breaker. First one to tip this game leaves the other with seconds.

So your main tip + the Dragons-Knights tie breaker(the first one to tip gives the other the left overs)

Let me know if you're still confused I will try to explain again.?!

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans,
I've updated the tipping comp and the NRL ladder.

A few tricky results again in round 25 and the best score in the comp was 6 from 8. Quite a few of us managed that, including our new stand-alone leader Footy Chick. FC hits the front for the first time all season...timing is everything.

And for the first time in a very long time some knucklehead who calls himself 'The Thinker' is in the running for a podium finish.

Just a reminder that the tipping competition will run all the way through until the grand final game. Many tipping comps end after 26 rounds, but this one does not.

There will be prizes for first, second and third this season:
1st - $100 NRL shop gift card
2nd - $60 NRL shop gift card
3rd - $40 NRL shop gift card

I won't claim my own prize, so if I happen to hang onto a top three spot the $40 prize will be randomly given to another tipster in the competition. The other two that make the podium, get the top two prizes.

By way of example:
If I somehow end up winning, the person that finishes second gets the top prize, the person that finishes third gets the second prize and a random tipster picks up the third prize.

Hopefully that's clear enough, but I'm happy to explain it again if need be.

I'll have the round 26 page published tomorrow night and I'll have my previews and selections published by lunchtime on Wednesday.

All the best

Coach Potato's picture

Last time all the Horses Heads had the Roosters game chalked up as a win even before the first whistle.

You must have another one chalked up yeah?

christine's picture

Big pete Thanks big pete but I'll have to have treatment a couple of times a year & I won't know more until my next appointment in November as to when that might start so it's just a case of wait & see what happens but thanks I appreciate it .

a's picture

Here is the updated ladder for the people in the non tipping competition

BigPeteBx 117

Dragonsfan4ever 110

That puts BigPeteBx up by 7 and looks set to win

tigerholic's picture

Giddy Folks

Back from Fraser today after a great trip. One of our group caught a 63cm Taylor which may win him a 4 day stay and $500 spending money, it truely was a great catch and on his second last silly of the day, I could have fibbed and said the great tigerholic caught it but that would bring bad Karma.

I was sitting around the camp fire at Cathedrals camping grounds when I asked this fellow that had been there for a few days, we had previously chatted about the footy(of course) and he was a bulldogs fan. The evening after the tigers and NZ game, I asked him how much the tigers had lost by and was quite shocked to hear that they had made a comeback and kept their chances alive, a very happy tigerholic returns from Fraser.

Round 26 does pose a few calculated guesses, what twist will the 2016 season hold, god I missed the footy last weekend.

Thinker, sounds like we will have a great tipping comp next year, thanks again to you and TLH for running the site.

Cheers

Coach Potato's picture

Possibly not a huge factor but Dale Copley certainly had some good stats in the last game against his old team,

2 line breaks out if his team's total of 4,
2 Trys
1 Try assist

Now on finals Eve and back at Suncorp, I wonder if Copley is out to also show the Broncos home crowd whether he is any better than his current replacement. Whether he was the one that should have been cut.

As I say, it may not be a huge factor, but go figure, the Roosters had lost 6 straight before the last meeting. Something tells me there was a motivating factor in there somewhere, and the above stats only give creedence.

The Thinker's picture

BigPete

It's pretty quiet on this site in the off-season, but I'll create a page called 'off season ramblings' or something similar, where people are free to do what they want (within reason).

And if anyone wants me to forward their email address to others let me know. Don't post your email address in the comments folks.

Coach Potato's picture

Latrell Mitchell, Mitchell Pearce, now number 16 Mitchell Frei.

What's the odds of Mitchell to Mitchell to Mitchell - TRY !!?
You're right. Any old odds.

fortresseagle's picture

thaks big pete yes i will keep in touch in summer mate.i will see if thinker can give me your e-mail address ok.

great sport in summer the tennis,the epl,the cricket........................hopefully there is a page where we can talk bout other sports see what happens big pete take care chat soon buddy

the fortress eagle where the mighty sea eagles are the best!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

a's picture

Good idea when we can talk in the off season we can also do a four nations and horse racing page as well

a's picture

And I will pass over as well

BigPeteBx's picture

Thanks for that Thinker - much appreciate it all, u r a gentleman and a scholar, but you knew that didn't you.

Keep well and your running of the site and keeping posts and updates current, is greatly appreciated.

Big Pete

St.George Illawarra Dragonsfan4ever's picture

If you can make space for extras, could it be me Mr Thinker? But if you can't, it's alright because I can post my tips on a weekly basis on the comments section next season.

The Thinker's picture

St George Illawarra Dragonsfan4ever

You can have a spot. Make sure you drop in before the start of round one next year.

BigPete
Too kind I tells ya. Thank you for your contributions this year. I've definitely appreciated them, and I'm sure others have too.

All the best

BigPeteBx's picture

Love being part of the show Thinker.
My Non-tipping partner Draggo Fan might try and rename himself. Shit thats a mouthful when you type it.
Suggestions Kogarah Kid, Jubilee Joker, Ramsgate Rambler that keeps it St George Country and not Wales.
Cheers

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