Round twenty five selections

Canterbury Bulldogs vs North Queensland Cowboys – Thursday night – Belmore Sports Ground

How much difference does a venue make? Just five weeks ago the Cowboys held the Dogs scoreless while picking up 36 points of their own. That Bulldogs team and this Bulldogs team are virtually identical (minus Kasiano), and there's no indication that the Bulldogs form is improving. The big difference is the venue - the Bulldogs spritual home. Oddly enough, Belmore is a venue where Bulldogs coach Des Hasler lost every single game he played. He'll fare better as a coach at this ground, but a win on Thursday night looks unlikely. A Cowboys victory and they move into the top four, and if they retain that it looks like they'll be heading to Melbourne for the first week of the finals. Worst reward ever.

Verdict – Cowboys by 10

Result - Cowboys 24 defeated Bulldogs 16

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos – Friday night – AAMI Park

The Storm get two chances to wrap up the minor premiership this season. A win here and the J.J Giltinan Shield is theirs. A loss and they take on the only team that can take that trophy away from them next week. That's a nice little buffer to have, but I'm sure they'd prefer to wrap it up this Friday night. Like the Thursday night game we have one team hoping for a dramatic turnaround on the result the last time these sides met. The difference here is that the Storm are back at home, after tearing the Broncos apart in Brisbane in round 17. Not a lot went right for the Broncos that night, and the Storm were at their brutal best in what I think was the most dominant performance of the season so far. It's unlikely they'll be that good again, but they don't have to be. The Broncos have clearly improved since then...a lot. A win in Melbourne and they move ahead of the team that loses on Thursday on the ladder. That goes a long way toward ensuring a home final, and everyone wants a home final. Statistically, the Broncos beat the Storm in Melbourne more often than they beat them in Brisbane, but 2 wins from 6 isn't something to cheer about. It just so happens that the Storm have a better win rate at Suncorp than they do at AAMI Park. It's a curious one...but it's true. In a round full of great games this is one of them. The Broncos to shake the life out of this contest...and just fall short. If it comes down to field goals the composure of Cronk and Smith will get them over the line.

Verdict – Storm by 1

Result - Broncos 26 defeated Storm 16

Manly Sea Eagles vs Canberra Raiders – Saturday afternoon – Brookvale Oval

The last game of the year at Brookvale and the faithful can pay their respects to Jamie Lyon who has played his last game for the club. He may not be the only one, with doubts over Brett Stewart and Steve Matai returning to the NRL next season. All three deserve a send-off and what's left of the Manly side will give their all but they just don't have the cattle. A win for the Green Machine and they, at least temporarily, move into the top two. They also welcome back Hodgson, Lee, Vaughan and Fensom this week. The Raiders are the feel good story of 2016. Just too good.

Verdict – Raiders by 10

Result - Raiders 44 defeated Sea Eagles 30

Gold Coast Titans vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday night – Cbus Super Stadium

Here's a game of football. 7th plays 8th and the winner is absolutely guaranteed a top eight finish. Both sides bring handy form into this clash - the Titans have lost just once since 17 and the Panthers just once since round 18. Oddly enough, that one loss for each side was against the Warriors. These sides faced off in round 11 in Penrith and the Titans prevailed 28 points to 24. Since then the Titans have added Nathan Peats, Konrad Hurrell and Jarryd Hayne to their roster, while the Panthers have unearthed Nathan Cleary. The Panthers record against top eight teams this season has been poor, but they are peaking at the right time. I lean their way on the basis that their recent form looks stronger. They ploughed through the Tigers last week, while the Titans beat them by a solitary point. They took the Warriors to golden point in New Zealand, while the Titans lost to the Warriors on the Gold Coast. The Panthers beat the Chooks convincingly, and that's the only game the Roosters have lost in four rounds. It's the game of the round. Panthers.

Verdict – Panthers by 4

Result - Panthers 15 defeated Titans 14

Cronulla Sharks vs Sydney Roosters – Saturday night – Southern Cross Group Stadium

If the season was four weeks old the Sharks would be on one point and the Roosters would be on six (including convincing wins over both grand finalists from last year). Sadly for the Chooks the season has been longer than that...much longer. The current vein of form just shows what the Red White and Bluesters could have done this season, but didn't. As for the Sharks, well you could almost feel sorry for them. Almost. It looks like the pressure of expectation is weighing them down like the Australian swim team. Despite that, I'm actually going to tip them here. They are hanging onto their top two spot by a thread, and if they want to keep it they really need to win this game given the challenge that awaits them in round 26 in Melbourne. It's the last game of the season at Shark Park and those rabid fans in the Shire can push their boys over the line.

Verdict – Sharks by 2

Result - Sharks 37 defeated Roosters 12

New Zealand Warriors vs Wests Tigers – Sunday afternoon – Mt Smart Stadium

With 7th playing 8th earlier in the round this is a live game - the winner has (some) hope of making the eight, while the loser can officially schedule their end of season silliness. These sides did play earlier this year but it was a while ago, with the Tigers prevailing 34-26 at Campbelltown. This time the Warriors are without Tuivasa-Sheck and Issac Luke while the Tigers are without Tedesco. I'm leaning to the home side but not with the confidence of some. If the Tigers haven't given up this could be one of the games of the round. Sadly, that loss last week looked a little bit like giving up. Who knows what sort of weather they're facing in Auckland but if conditions are fair this should be very entertaining indeed.

Verdict – Warriors by 4

Result - Tigers 36 defeated Warriors 24

Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Sunday afternoon – Hunter Stadium

Those wascally wabbits. This is the Old Boys game for the Knights and I had them pegged as winning this. I didn't expect the Rabbitohs to start trying (and winning). I'm still bl00dy tempted I tells ya, but I can't quite do it. It wouldn't be fair to the two people who don't bother to read my ramblings here and just go straight to my tip and follow it without thinking for themselves. I will say this though - I'm going to have a bet. I'm backing the Knights with 14.5 points head start at $1.77. There...I said it. Gamble responsibly.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 4

Result - Rabbitohs 34 defeated Knights 12

Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Monday night – Pirtek Stadium

Not a lot to motivate either side but I have to find a winner and this is how I'm doing it. This is the Eels last game at home this season and quite frankly they should go out and win for those fans loyal enough to get out there on a Monday night for a fundamentally meaningless fixture. The Dragons can do the same next week against the Knights. To those of you that get to the game...I salute you. To the Dragons fans that get to the game...I'll buy you a drink.

Verdict – Eels by 14

Result - Eels 30 defeated Dragons 18

Wally Lewis - round twenty-five selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

  • Bulldogs vs COWBOYS
  • STORM vs Broncos
  • Sea Eagles vs RAIDERS
  • TITANS vs Panthers
  • SHARKS vs Roosters
  • WARRIORS vs Tigers
  • Knights vs RABBITOHS
  • EELS vs Dragons

Comments

Tailspin's picture

Great game by the Broncos boys, back in form, just hope they can keep it going, Good win by the Cowboys, but still have to bring out their A game. Would be good to see Titans get up but I think the Panthers will just tip them.

Coach Potato's picture

That would be ok Rocket.
Taking you down at Suncorp week 1 would be footy heaven.

Tailspin's picture

Panthers will crumble in finals footy coach.

GaryChesterUK's picture

All getting heated on here :)

WD Cowboys & Broncos so far this week - Based on these performance maybe we will end up with the same grand final as last year?

I still fancy the storm at the moment I'm putting this game down to a great broncos performance and very fast start not allowing the storm to settle into the game. I'm sure they will bounce back! But it cost me in my bet :(

Coach Potato's picture

Bloody amazing. Everyone saw the Grand Final didnt they?
They saw what unstructured attack did to the Bronx in the dying seconds. Other teams refuse to learn from that. Structured attack does no good against structured defence.

If the Storm think they will just steamroll teams like hey tried last night, they are more chance of going out in straight sets.

The Thinker's picture

Coach,
I've mentioned the way the draw is falling for the first week of the finals but I'll mention it again...because the Panthers have now lodged a request to change the draw.

The Panthers opponent in week one is going to be, barring a miracle, the Broncos, Cowboys or Bulldogs.

The Broncos will get three extra days to prepare..and they play at home.

The Bulldogs get two extra days to prepare....and they play at home.

The Cowboys only get one extra day to prepare....and they play at home.

In all three cases each side plays their round 26 game at home too.

The Panthers will do well to get through the first week. You're saying you'll play anyone anywhere anytime. You want the Bulldogs in Sydney.

Coach Potato's picture

Have you discounted Broncos finishing 4th and having to pull the same trick on Melbourne twice in three weeks, or else travelling to Sydney - Maroons up against the Sky Blues?

Coach Potato's picture

Semi finals ain't gonna be won or lost on a day more or less preparation.

All I know is the Panthers look twice the team that made the Prelim two years ago, and they were long odds to make it past week 1 that year too.

Coach Potato's picture

We made it back from 2nd last on the table last year, while the team that finished last is still there.

Wherever Penrith finish this year, it's been great. Competing with the best teams, and still a dark horse for the title.

They obviously weren't fooled by a pre-season prediction of 11th.

Coach Potato's picture

Sounds like that one must have registered on the comment scoreboard. Touch'e.

Rocket Ryan's picture

Titans unlucky played poorly first half the field goal specialists strike again the acadamy fg training paying off

Coach Potato's picture

What's that I hear ?

Must be a pin dropping.

Coach Potato's picture

There we go again, Qld teams never lose, they only play badly.

mark ashford's picture

Tough win Coach but well done. Some howler decisions again against the Titans. Peachy won the game for you. He's so hard to tackle.
Bet the Titans are glad they payed the megabucks for Hayne.

Coach Potato's picture

Cowboys can't afford to throw the last game.
Looks like ya gone Titans.
Enjoy your Mad Monday out the back of NRL HQ.

The Thinker's picture

Opponent does his knee....Paul Gallen laughs at him.

A true leader of men.

P.S. Thanks Panthers

Coach Potato's picture

6 wins out of 7 games.
The only loss a field goal in Golden Point against the Warriors.
A game Thinker told was won by he better team.

Panthers obviously the better team today then right?

Coach Potato's picture

Footy Tipping thanks?
Gambling thanks?
80 minute NRL fan thanks?
All but avoided playing Broncos 1st week thanks?
Combination of?
All four?

The Thinker's picture

Gambling thanks mostly. The top eight finish for the Panthers should keep me off the streets for a few weeks.

a's picture

I think Titans fan would want West Tigers to win because the play Raiders and Warriors play Eel

Coach Potato's picture

At what point of the season did you realise your pre-season prediction was badly wrong?

Tailspin's picture

Good win to the Panthers, just by the skin of teeth, unlucky Titans. If by chance they make the 8, will be a good payout - 100-1. But unlikely as up against the Cowboys next week.
You are right Thinker - Gallen is just a dirty grub, shame though because he seems like a nice bloke off the field. What was the Panthers odds to make the 8 Thinker?

Coach Potato's picture

Thinker and Tailspin, does memory conveniently fail you, Cameron Smith's reaction to the Alex McKinnon tackle?

Please give us all a break.

The Thinker's picture

Coach,
I thought it was badly wrong before I even wrote it. I say so every year. I got a few a lot more wrong than the Panthers. I had Manly top 2, Canberra 13th and the Titans 15th.

Tailspin,
I took $3.50 for the Panthers.....at least I wasn't badly wrong then.

a's picture

Gallen is a grub and Smith is not he didn't know how serious the injury was at the time and he was only trying to defend his team mate

Coach Potato's picture

Oh that's right 'a', Gallen is a doctor, and so he knew.

Coach Potato's picture

Panthers game for exactly zero seconds coverage on the morning news jus now. I know 100% if Hayne's team had won by a point you would have seen everything.

Lack of respect for Penrith is set to continue for at least another couple of weeks.

Coach Potato's picture

Bad typing but you get what I mean. They showed the Sharks game highlights telling viewers they're back and then went straight to the All-Blacks game - like we needed visual to know how that game panned out.

Coach Potato's picture

Tailspin sounds like 100/1 is still a big chance.
Beat the Cowboys and it's done.
Lose against the Cowboys and you still win if Warriors or Tigers don't win two.

Coach Potato's picture

(meaning 27 could be enough)

Coach Potato's picture

Not sure how you could be wrong before you wrote it, but then wrote it anyway.
.
You mean you sometimes don't believe what you write?

Coach Potato's picture

Or you mean your head was overruling you heart?

Try the heart next time.

The Thinker's picture

Coach,
Can you show me an example of anyone who has correctly predicted the NRL competition ladder, in order, before the season started?

That's the point. It's always going to be wrong. Most people are flat out getting half the games right in a single round.

The article is a bit of fun, and provides an opportunity for any of you to discuss the season ahead and make fun of my stupidity.

christine's picture

I think raiders are the dark horses this season .

Tailspin's picture

That's probably the problem with the game coach, too many bloody dogs laying down waiting for the penalty pretending to be hurt, then miraculously recovering to play a blinder for the rest of the game, so in the end you don't know who is really injured and who isn't. That's like this bloody penalty given for a high shot/head contact when the player has slipped or falling, its absolute bullshit and just bad luck and should be play on, in normal speed and play, the tackler who is doing the right thing by not going high is penalised because the attacking player falls /slips into the defence, its bullshit and should be taken out of the game!!!!! That's still a good return Thinker, happy days.

Tailspin's picture

He is a very uptight man Thinker, I think he needs a holiday up here in sunny Queensland :)

mark ashford's picture

Tiger
Great win by your boys in NZ congratulations.
Couldn't watch the game unfortunately, had visitors.
Your still in there mate with a chance.
With apologies to our Warriors supporters.

mark ashford's picture

Coach, I admire your Panther passion.
What worries me is your first 10 games were won/lost by small margins.
Then Storm beat you by 18 points.
After that you had another 3 win/loss by small margins.
Then Sharks beat you by 16
Then you had 2 more win/loss by small margins except for a 19 point win over the out of form Broncs.
Then you beat the Roosters by 28, the Knights by 36 and the Tigers by 30 all teams in the bottom half.
Your latest win is by 1 point against another bottom 8 side.
You have lost to the Raiders (ok a 1 point win in the second round) the Dogs, Cowboys, Sharks (twice) and the Storm.
The only top 8 team you have beaten twice is an out of form Broncos.
Not a great record against the top 8.
I'm not surprised you get a bit of stick on this site with your arrogant attitude.
Your Panthers "weren't on the news" or "the other Coach failed to praise my Panthers". RL is not kindergarten Coach.

Coach Potato's picture

Missed my point. Was not about the forecast. Was about betting on the Panthers to make the 8 , while telling they will probably not be there. The odds suggest a bet very early in the season.

Coach Potato's picture

# Tailspin if Raiders beat the Tigers you have 100/1. Is the ticket for sale?

# If Haynes team had of won, it would have been all over the news. If it was a Gold Coast player that finished with a broken back, the Panther would be out for 6 weeks. No need to patronise. You may not agree but you are also obliged to respect my rights to an opinion.

BigPeteBx's picture

Evenin Mark A - just got to reading some of the posts/blogs.
Have been away, as I said the other night to Hunter Valley for a wedding.
Stayed at Hunter Valley Gardens Mercure Resort with 60 acres of manicured gardens.
Lovely place but Spring preferred time to visit.

Whats this giving your place up. I asked Thinker last week is there limitations in this Thinker "Comp", but no answer as yet, like me also asking if he originally came from Newcastle area or if he once played with St George, but no answer on that. So I take it from working with govt dept's - no answer means NO.

U r a top bloke mate. I've enjoyed your comments and your friendliness towards others. Who gives a, if u r Qld, its the person I judge NOT who they support or what they like or dislike.

But if you happen to come and join A's non-tippers, you'll be welcomed and to join me without the Stoush stuff. I've had a 50/50 Round 25, so far. Manly Boys tried but what do you do when feathers were plucked two rounds ago.

Cheers mate, keep well and have a great week.
Big Pete

mark ashford's picture

Certainly Coach the shot on Reagan-Callard was a late dog shot by James, he seems to have this in his game.
He now has a cracked disc in his spine. May not play again.
As was the shot on Bennie Barba (can't remember who it was) but it was late and unnecessary. Both players were held.
Why do the refs wait so long to call held?
Why do refs allow players to be dragged 10 metres to the sideline or the in goal. There is no forward motion by the tackled player.
Who can't possibly get to ground being held up by 3 or more.
Refing has reached an all time low.

a's picture

Yeah 2 Warrirs tires taken of them unfairly

mark ashford's picture

Hey BIGPETE nice to hear from you. Hope you didn't imbibe too much at that wedding.
I've always had a soft spot for Christine. she does it tough.
Thought my tipping spot might help her a little with her problems.
But she has declined.
So for now looks like I'll be here giving Coach a bit when I can.
If Thinker can't fit us all in next year then my spot is up for grabs.
I'll still be here of course but would like to give someone else a go.
Your Manly were very good the other night just couldn't put them away.
They will be a team to be feared next year with a full squad.
How good are those Trebojec (please excuse the spelling) boys going to be.
FORTRESS thanks for the Broncs congrats, who knows where we'll end up this season.
Never been a Manly hater or any other team for that matter.
BUT Coach is drawing me close to disliking his Panthers even though I do like Josh Mansour's beard.

Coach Potato's picture

If Roosters upset the Broncos, and Panthers put a score on Manly it would be Penrith 6th and Brisbane 7th.

Broncos fans who bought the worst they could do was 6th are wrong.
There's a lot riding on a Thursday night game.

Fortress  eagle's picture

Great effort by the mighty eagles with injuries playing the form team Canberra we were gutsy never gave up for the killer jamie Lyon . Good luck brother your a legend will be seeing back a brookie when u come back and visit your famouse fortress . Hope we get the stadium we have been promised and we deserve .

Mark and rocket well done on a dominate win over the cheats the storm .

Tiger well done on a great comeback to beat the warriors and keep ur season alive .

Congrats cowboy on your tough win over the dogs at belmore.

Well done to the sharks to get back to winning very good win.

And last but not least to coach look mate a win is a win your boys won great first half , fought hard for it in the second half but a gallant win you should be proud of them well done.

So one week to go and should be a great final round good luck everyone to your teams keep up the spirit and rivalry .

It's us supporters of the game that keep this great game alive we are the ones so keep it up everyone .

The fortress eagle where rugby league football is the greatest game of all !!!!!!!!!!!!

BigPeteBx's picture

Heya there Mark - yes I understand with Christine. I know of a couple that have the same mongrel thing she has. Effects differently though.
My hat off to you for your offer to Thinker for her. I reckon Christine would get stuck right into them in the Frontrunners Comp.

AGAIN, is there a figure that can only play in The Thinkers Comp?
I know of Tipping Comps that take all and sundry in and they are only bragging rights comps.

A top effort against Storm, especially in Melb. That is why I tipped against Bronc's.

Yes Mark - The Turbo Bros will go well, but again, we have this injury problem, that has caused many a Manly player to retire earlier than expected.

Re Mansours beard - Fortress and I will be very cautious in Round 26 out at The Grave Yard, as I reckon his beard is an additional weapon he carries.

BigPeteBx's picture

Evenin Fortress - how's it going mate?
Just starting to get a roll on in EPL, as well as observing NRL season nearing its end for the year.

Sounds like we did it hard, for Raiders to put the cleaners through us at home. Yes, bloody injuries have been our biggest hurdle this year.
But that should also give the backup reserves a chance to open up and prove themselves, otherwise their opportunities next season can be question marked, or be few and far between.

Cheers mate and have a great week.
Big Pete

Coach Potato's picture

Let's not forget NYC Holden Cup Minor Premiers declared - Penrith.

This is without Nathan Cleary, youngest in the NRL, who without much doubt would have been the youngest in NYC.

Titans declared they were going to target the kid, and they threw everything but the kitchen sink. Didn't work.

BigPeteBx's picture

Buggered if I know Mark, why refs allow tackles in the game to elapse before they call their word - HELD.

To me, it has been a coward, petty thing this dragging players over the sideline or back in-goal. It really gets ups my nose.
Doesn't make a supposed game of rugby league all that professional at all. Kids shit!!!!

This cheap crap should be blotted out of the game. Keep the ball active and alive. Give it time and RL will take as long as NFL (gridiron) to play.

Oh well - my bitch for the week.

Cheers all and keep well as we progress Round 26 of the NRL Season.
Then its Finals Time and then cometh Mad Monday.....and you know what that means. Lock up the players and throw the key away.

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