Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys – Thursday night – Southern Cross Group Stadium

I'm assuming, and it's an important assumption, that Thurston won't be playing on Thursday night (tipsters take note that he's named on an extended bench). Michael Morgan reminded Origin selectors he was available with a scintillating performance against the Bulldogs – having Granville and Coote makes a world of difference. I expected the Cowboys pack to struggle against the Bulldogs but I was clearly wrong. This week they have to step up once again and they'll take confidence out of the performance last week. They're in this, but back-to-back away wins against big packs seems a big ask to me. Given their overall record at Shark Park (33% win rate) I'm leaning, reluctantly I have to say, to the home side. The Sharks aren't playing anywhere near their best but they keep doing enough to win. If they improve Paul Gallen could be lifting another premiership trophy. I did a little vomit in my mouth as I wrote that. Bleugh!

Verdict – Sharks by 4

Result – Sharks by 4

New Zealand Warriors vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Friday night – FMG Stadium (Waikato)

The Warriors will be pleased to be home where they've won their last three games and lost only once all season, although home for them in round eleven is in Waikato and their record in New Zealand away from Mt Smart isn't flash. These sides met in round four and the Dragons won convincingly but a few things have changed since then. Foran pulled out of that game during the warm-up which wouldn't have helped. Let's assume he gets through the stretching drills this weekend. Matulino is a very handy addition on the Warriors bench given the Dragons formidable forwards. No Mannering though...which is a concern. The round four Dragons included Widdop, Dugan and Aitken, and what's left of their backline needs to find a way to score points. They were arguably the better side against the Sharks in round ten but couldn't win. Scoring points has been an issue for the Dragons in recent seasons and I'm concerned they may be drifting that way again as the season wears on. That said, I'm tipping them in what is apparently an upset. I think that Dragons pack will simply bulldoze over the top of the Warriors on Friday night. Paul Vaughan should, on form, be wearing an Origin jersey this season – but for which team? He was born in Canberra, played all his junior footy in Canberra and started his professional career with the Raiders. I better give Kevvie Walters a call – I may have found Queensland a very good prop forward.

Verdict – Dragons by 4

Result – Dragons by 16

Brisbane Broncos vs Wests Tigers – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium

The Wests Tigers have won just five games against the Broncos in their history but, rather surprisingly, four of those wins were at Suncorp. If they win again they'll be winning without Mitchell Moses whose transition to the Eels starts this weekend. The other big three have been named. Jimmy the Jet is back for the Broncos and Ben Hunt has been named on an extended bench. I'm sure Hunt would like an opportunity before the Origin squads are named so don't be surprised if he gets the call up. The Broncos have lost just once at home this season – to the Cowboys in extra time. Better teams than the Tigers have walked away from Suncorp with their tails between their legs this season. I expect the Tigers (who do have tails) will be doing the same. I mentioned it somewhere in the comments somewhere but I'll mention it here too. Matt Gillett is the best forward in the game right now. I exclude Cameron Smith from the group I define as 'forwards' on a technicality. Smith is however, the best accountant in the game...ever (apologies to Geoff Toovey).

Verdict – Broncos by 10

Result – Broncos by 36

Gold Coast Titans vs Manly Sea Eagles – Saturday night – Cbus Super Stadium

Last week the Titans conceded 36 points to the Melbourne Storm and they still won. It was an astonishing scoreline for a couple of reasons. Firstly, teams don't score 36 points and lose too often (that's the third highest losing tally ever) and secondly, the last time the Storm conceded 38 points or more was way back in round four of 2014. Now this wasn't some Origin depleted Storm side either, and for that reason the Titans have to come away from that game feeling ten foot tall and bullet proof. Manly flew the boxes against the Broncos shortly thereafter but then went back into the boxes for the last 65 minutes. They back up from an away game in Brisbane with an away game on the Gold Coast. Would they stay up here for the whole week or travel home in between? Either way it's a logistical challenge. Tom Trbojevic is unavailable and he isn't the be-all and end-all of the Sea Eagles attack but he's a very important cog. At Brookie this would be a toss of the coin decision, but on the Gold Coast it's the Titans for me.

Verdict – Titans by 8

Result – Sea Eagles by 20

Parramatta Eels vs Canberra Raiders – Saturday night – ANZ Stadium

I used to have a bit of a theory about the Raiders – that theory being they usually lose when everyone expects them to win. They reminded us last weekend that the theory still has legs. Whether they respond to that wake-up call with a more typical Raiders performance this weekend remains to be seen. The Eels are without Corey Norman for a while, but this is still a competitive side and there are some handy inclusions this week in Bevan French, Beau Scott and Brad Takairangi. The other big inclusion is Mitchell Moses with a mid-season switch from the Tigers to the Eels. He's named on an extended bench but it wouldn't surprise to see him thrown straight into a starring role. In any case I'm with the Raiders and a form reversal, and a big game from Josh Papalii for his club and the Origin selectors. If both teams bring their best it's the game of the round.

Verdict – Raiders by 4

Result – Raiders by 6

Newcastle Knights vs Penrith Panthers – Sunday afternoon – McDonald Jones Stadium

The Panthers realise they have to turn up to play on Sunday afternoon, given the Knights astonishing win over the Raiders in round ten. Mind you, the Panthers are a $1.28 favourite, and that's skinny for a team running 14th playing away from home. While I won't be backing them I will be tipping them. A standing ovation for the Knights and their victory last weekend...and how good are their fans for continuing to push through the turnstiles? You can only applaud their effort and resilience. Winning two in a row isn't beyond them, but a competitive loss looks more likely.

Verdict – Panthers by 4

Result – Panthers by 10

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Sydney Roosters – Sunday afternoon – ANZ Stadium

Everyone: How good were the Roosters last weekend?

The Thinker: They were good. They were very good.

Everyone: What was wrong with the Bulldogs last weekend?

The Thinker: They were wrong. There were very wrong.

Verdict – Roosters by 20

Result – Roosters by 6

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm – Sunday night – NIB Stadium

There are no shortage of teams with a poor record against the Storm, and unfortunately for the Bunnies their record is close to the worst. 26 times they have met for 22 purple victories. Sadly for the Bunnies the Storm are coming off a loss, and I almost never tip against the Storm if they are coming off a loss. I mentioned earlier how rare it is for the Storm to leak as many points as they did against the Titans, and Bellyache will be drilling them on their defence all week. With the ball in hand the Storm were fantastic. Providing they hold their form in attack, and improve their defence they are close enough to a good thing. I can't possibly take $1.28 about the Panthers when I can take $1.38 about the Storm. Gamble responsibly.

Verdict – Storm by 16

Result – Storm by 8

Wally Lewis - round eleven selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

• SHARKS vs Cowboys
• WARRIORS vs Dragons
• BRONCOS vs Tigers
• TITANS vs Sea Eagles
• Eels vs RAIDERS
• Knights vs PANTHERS
• Bulldogs vs ROOSTERS
• Rabbitohs vs STORM