Brisbane Broncos vs Manly Sea Eagles – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium
Wayne Bennett appears to have adopted a crop (or is that prop) rotation policy to get his troops through the Origin period. Thaiday and Hodges are back while Parker lies fallow for this round. Ben Hunt, presumably, takes over goal-kicking duties. Even with Parker resting, the starting pack for the Broncos has plenty of punch. They have a clear advantage over their opponents on that front and it's difficult to imagine them losing that all-important yardage battle. With room to move, Hunt and Milford could have a night to remember. My Friday night curse is a powerful spirit, but I'm backing the Broncos at home...confidently.
Verdict – Broncos by 14
Result - Broncos 44 defeated Sea Eagles 10
Wests Tigers vs Gold Coast Titans – Friday night – Leichhardt Oval
The Tigers don't like to lose at Leichhardt, but they did the last time they played here (in an extraordinary game against the Raiders). Losing two in a row at their spiritual home seems unlikely, but I'm struggling to warm to the line-up the Tigers have named. With Farah unavailable, Dene Halatau moves into dummy half. That's not a huge surprise, but Chris Lawrence starting in the second row is. This leaves the Tigers with a fairly inexperienced centre pairing of David Nofoaluma and Deloise Hoeter. It looks like Hoeter has been tasked with holding out James Roberts - sheesus! You all know about me and my Friday nights, but this game reeks of an upset. A quick check of the weather forecast and, for once, conditions in Sydney don't look too bad - another tick for the Titans. Don't trust me...I'm haunted.
Verdict – Titans by 2
Result - Titans 27 defeated Tigers 20
Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders – Saturday afternoon – Hunter Stadium
The first of three daytime games this round (yay) and both these sides are better for the scheduling. More shuffling in the halves for the Knights as Kurt Gidley returns to replace Tyrone Roberts and Carlos Tuimavave gets another run at five-eighth. Both these sides lost last weekend but their were signs of life in each case. The Knights are the logical favourite at home but with just one win since round four I have my doubts - I think the post-Bennett hangover may have set in. The Raiders are bringing a settled line-up on the road and I'm going green.
Verdict – Raiders by 2
Result - Raiders 44 defeated Knights 22
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors – Saturday night – NIB Stadium (Perth)
Note the venue - it's the perfect crime. The Bunnies drag the Warriors to the other end of the earth for this game every season. They get paid to take a game to Perth and they still, theoretically, have a home ground advantage. It is devilishly clever, and they tend to fly home with two points (and a bag of cash) as a result. Adam Reynolds (and Glenn Stewart) are still a few weeks away but the rest of the line-up looks solid. Night-time suits the Bunnies too - the Warriors play better during the day and the time zones push this game past the bedtimes of most of the lads from Auckland. As I said...it's the perfect crime.
Verdict – Rabbitohs by 8
Result - Rabbitohs 36 defeated Warriors 4
Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm – Saturday night – Pepper Stadium
There could be a dozen line-up changes in this game before Saturday night, but I'll go with what I know. Slater is back and Soward is playing. We shall find out on the night. A slightly strange performance from the Storm on Monday night - the Roosters were at or near their best and it was almost as if Craig Bellamy put his queue in the rack. The purple machine rarely put in successive sub-par performances but they are on a quick back-up, and successive away games brings the Panthers well and truly into contention. The injury to Matt Moylan sways me - his exclusion limits the Panthers attacking options and the Storm know a thing or two about closing down the attack of their opponents. I'm far from confident, and if Slater is a late withdrawal I'd be changing my tip.
Verdict – Storm by 4
Result - Storm 20 defeated Panthers 0
Cronulla Sharks vs Sydney Roosters – Sunday afternoon – Remondis Stadium
Paul Gallen, aka 'The Gentleman of Rugby League', returns to lead his beloved Sharks. Sadly, for Gallen, he faces a red-hot Roosters outfit with an unchanged line-up that just demolished the team that was on the top of the ladder. The Sharks have also jagged the Sunday afternoon timeslot, which has been something of a death sentence for the lads from the Shire. They often save their worst for Sunday afternoons, and did so again last weekend when they got comprehensively destroyed by the Dragons. I am reminded of the Knight from Monty Python (it's just a flesh wound). I say Chickens....I say Chickens by a considerable margin.
Verdict – Roosters by 30
Result - Sharks 10 defeated Roosters 4
Canterbury Bulldogs vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Monday afternoon – ANZ Stadium
Which bookmaking genius woke up and decided to make the Bulldogs favourite on Monday afternoon? All of them apparently. The Dragons were ruthless and brilliant last weekend and sit perched at the top of the ladder - deservedly so. Their defence is still holding up, and in the last two rounds they've been scoring points as well. Meanwhile the Bulldogs are outside of the eight and have conceded more than twice as many points as the Red V this season. As soon as I can find Ms Thinkers' handbag I shall be emptying it onto the Dragons I tells ya. Emptying it...gamble responsibly.
Verdict – Dragons by 8
Result - Bulldogs 29 defeated Dragons 16
Parramatta Eels vs North Queensland Cowboys – Monday night – Pirtek Stadium
The Cowboys record in Sydney has never been great, and at Pirtek Stadium it's arguably worse -particularly when you consider that the Eels haven't exactly been the best Sydney team in recent years. I guess with each successive win the Cowboys edge closer to their next loss, but the same can be said for the Eels...and everyone. The Cowboys keep on winning, and an all Queensland grand final is entirely plausible this season. The Eels needed their share of luck to get the win last weekend, although to be fair a bit of luck was due to fall their way. I have to stick with the northerners - the weather in Sydney on Monday shouldn't kill them.
Verdict – Cowboys by 2
Result - Cowboys 36 defeated Eels 30
Wally Lewis - round thirteen selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.
- BRONCOS vs Sea Eagles
- TIGERS vs Titans
- KNIGHTS vs Raiders
- RABBITOHS vs Warriors
- Panthers vs STORM
- Sharks vs ROOSTERS
- Bulldogs vs DRAGONS
- Eels vs COWBOYS
Comments
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Thinker sir, correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the Souths v Warriors game a 3.30pm kick off in Perth? That makes it 7.30pm in the evening here in Auckland. Trust me I won't be in bed at that time, I'll be watching the game. However, depending on the score at half time I may go to bed early. That aside I still think you are on the money with your tip. Good luck this weekend...especially on Friday night!!
Submitted by The Thinker on
You may be right Steel
The guide says 5.30pm but that could be eastern seaboard time. Yay....four daytime games
p.s. I have it on good authority that Ryan Hoffman is tucked in tight at 7pm every night the NRL schedule allows it.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Wow who saw that back flip coming? At least some good came from it, in comes sensible contract cooling off periods, i.e. if you play half a season with your team mates of course your going to stay if pushed. Guaranteed longevity for clubs to plan around, and contract extensions can be worked out at any time. Bad things are there are 2 news rules, rule 1, Do not tell your members about your signing, rule 2 DO NOT tell your members about your signing.
Great work by the NRL board but a fraction to late to save the Titan's from a Manly sponsored player raid.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
*AHEM* https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Js-SHDhoNPw ;-D
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Are you suggesting that young #7 for Manly is like Adolf Hitler? He didn't say stones plural.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
All joking aside, this all depends on which side of the fence you are on. Manly supporters will be over joyed about the news while the Titan's fans will be gutted. Now to cross absolutely everything until Foran is locked in as one of my BOYS for next year.
Here are my tips since I won.
Broncos - Just impossible to tip Manly based on performance this season, and coming up against the Bronco's, who's baby side crushed the Knights and they have a full strength team, no brainer.
Titans - Beaten last start by the Rabbits, but it wasn't as one sided as some of the later games. Tigers with a week off and something to prove at home, Nah J. Roberts to score a hat trick and the Titans to prove that they might shake up the top 8 later in the season.
Raiders - Again not as bad as the score line said. Ricky has gotten the Raiders pillaging and plundering and we shall not consider the after game celebrations. I missed the game between the Knights and Warriors and do not know if the Knights performance was their brilliance or Warriors laziness. I'll go with the Green mean wrecking machine that the Raiders are looking to be.
Rabbits - No not the grey haired legend that calls the games but the small floppy eared pests who should roll the Warriors after most of NZ is in bed asleep. Thinker called it a perfect crime, how about midnight robbery?
Panthers - At home they were pretty formidable last week. We couldn't keep them down. Something is bugging me about the Storm especially after last start performance. Can't shake it and will go with the big cats.
Roosters - Sharks had 40 - 0 put on them last week, and the Roosters didn't allow a try. Do the maths.
Dragons - Again defence wins games, and with an attack that has put on 74 points over the last 2 games while allowing 24 points. Hard to back the Doggies, though this might be a lot closer than I or a lot of people may think. Dragons by a couple of points ( or tries, or cricket scores)
Eels - These BOYS can get the job done! HOORAH! These BOYS have the best chance to change their own destiny this weekend! HOORAH! Sorry gotta pump myself up to keep the faith. Should be a good game, and it'll be close, golden point close, and after Chris got his smile back last weekend things are looking up. Go the BOYS!
Submitted by mark ashford on
Hi all
How about that Cherry Pie....really why on earth would you leave a club like Manly for the Titans.
Nice and early this week...
Broncos
Tigers
Knights
Rabbits
Storm
Roosters
Dogs
Cowboys
Good luck to you all!
Submitted by The Thinker on
I know Mark....did you see the house he bought on the Coast? One block from the sand at Broadbeach from memory.
In Manly he'd get a couple of bike lockers for the same price.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Sorry I left a couple of rants very late last week, so to be fair to everyone and give a second chance to comment or ignore.
Item # 1
#BringBackTheScrum.
Baggy raised a good point about where the scrums are at these days. I'm proposing to restore the scrum as a true competition for the ball once more.
Item #2
Gold Coast / NRL conflict of interest.
Neil Henry was said to have been in danger of being fined by the NRL for his insinuation that the refereeing was not up to standard. But who was going to pay? NRL to NRL? Neil to John ala Peter to Paul? Such a conflict of interest, not as big though as a footy team in the business of making money. Making money equals winning games. Ref decisions equal winning games, and there refs asociation under the direction of the NRL.
Item #3
Protected and unprotected species list
Last weeks ultra late hit from Pauli Fui Fui Pauli on Soward went unpunished. Not graded high enough to miss a game. The incident went without penalty. Parra went on to win, dont be fooled they won without this. But my point is compare the James Graham - Adam Reynolds incident. Grahams was almost simultaneous but got penalised plus a 5 week suspension. Where is the protection for the kicker now NRL? Protection for rabbits, but open hunting season for Panthers?
AsI say please comment or please ignore at your leisure.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Confused Thinker. You say that without Moylan, Penrith's attacking options will be too limited, but if Slater is out you think Panthers will win? How? Please explain.
Submitted by a on
Yeah please explain thinker
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I'm wondering if I should reveal, just yet, my formula which selects the premier in 3 by regular seasons end. (Yes, before the finals begin, possibly earlier).The winner has come out of this 3 the last decade or so I've analysed. Would be more useful info later in the season, but will include maybe Friday if I get a majority vote - 10 or more telling me to give it up.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Coach/a
An explanation...of sorts.
Slater, loved by some and loathed by some more, has extraordinary vision. Everyone recognizes his attacking prowess but less people see how much clean-up work he does at the back. He shuts down plenty of attacking raids. If he doesn't shut them down he helps his team do it. If you get a chance to see a Storm game live - spend some time watching Slater at the back when they are defending. He is a conductor and, more often than not, he directs his line to where they need to be. Inglis is more brilliant, but Slater is a better reader of the game.
With Moylan out, the Storm have one less dynamo to shut down. Moylan is creating more try assists for the Panthers than anyone else. I think the rest of the Panthers are containable if Slater plays....back the total score unders if you trust me.
With Slater out, Penrith may have enough in attack to trouble the Storm anyway. I don't think they can run up a total, but they could do enough to win...at home.
And yes Coach...I'm keen to see your 3 most likely.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Thanks Thinker. Actually damn. I thought I had you stymied. Shame its not a Friday game, I would have been more confident of the team you didn't tip.
Vote tally ..... 1
Submitted by a on
Yes Panthers will struggle this weekend for sure
Submitted by a on
Another not Storm usually beat the Panthers. The Panther record aganist the storm is very very very very poor
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Bad news Coach, the NRL have just gutted the Titans playing roster with today's issues. Hard to know what they are really doing with the team apart from throwing cash at them in a fairly haphazard way. But if you look at the Titans, Tigers and the Knights they seem to be badly run as a business. I understand that if you don't have a product to sell you can't make money, in this case winning. But if they are just there to make up the numbers and allow the NRL to chase a bigger TV deal by having a few cellar dwellers, which allows for more air time of the top 6 teams. Is there a point to it all?
Submitted by Declan_S on
In a bit of a form slump at the moment, not a great time :/
Count me in Coach, I'm interested. Also don't forget Graham got extra judiciary points for his treatment of the ref afterwards!
Broncos
West's
Knights
Warriors
Storm
Roosters
Dogs
Cowboys
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Manly - Came within a minute of ending Cowboys record streak. That, and two wins against Melbourne. They certainly belie their place on the ladder. Oh, and the Thinks Jinx.
Wests - Teams get sick of the mood coming to training on a losing streak. With each week they hunger more and more for a bright and cheery recovery session. Leichhardt Oval, the hallowed SCG of the west (well west of CBD) might be enough to conjure enough points.
Canberra - Knights went real close against the Warriors. Didn't have much luck / didn't get many favours. Tried hard, but apart from Gagai, don't have any spark in attack. Looked like a team waiting for something to happen. Raiders look more like a team that makes something happen.
New Zealand - Still not convinced by the Keary Sutton combo, and Warriors have been cruising along ok. Matter of fact you'd have to do a double-take if someone said they were going for 4 straight.
Melbourne - I think things would really have to go Penrith's way to beat a team like Melbourne, even at home. Anyone notice they aren't getting things go their way? (even at home)
Cronulla - Convinced last few meetings between the two haven't been flukes. Can't put my finger on it but one teams worked something out over the other. Roosters current bogey team no doubts.
St George - The most supported team in the comp when they all come out of the closet. Closets open at the moment. More clinched right fists padding against left side of red V's in about 5 years.
Parramatta - Cowboys will say they fell asleep against Manly. Quite a neat trick in the middle of a football game you might say. No. I think Manly found a huge chink in the Cowboys armour. Its their right side defence (everyone). Guess who plays left wing for the Eels? A bigger, faster version of Mal Meninga.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
No worries Declan, that's vote #2.
Whatever Graham got for his tackle was 100% more than Pauli Pauli got for his. One was almost simultaneous with the kick, the other was off a 6 yard run. NRL's own rule book says if you are committed before the kick - it can't be late, and it can't be a penalty.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Baggy, I imagine the salary cap skaters on ice Titans worked out Cherry Evans would have again blown the budget, and would look hypocritical only months after exposing the Eels Deals. Yes, they would have had to fine themselves half a $Million.
Matter of fact, I think I've worked it out. Titans are the NRL's capital loss tax write-off. The more the Titans lose as a business, the lower the NRL's taxable income. The Titans making a dollar is of no interest to the NRL. The less they make the better. Isn't that just the biggest conflict of interest you have ever heard?
Submitted by Sully on
Danger Game this Time around on trip to Perth for Rabbitohs with a 3.30pm Daytime Kickoff suiting the Warriors & Warriors have landed this Afternoon (Wednesday) ready for the challenge,tough road trip but should be a cracking game in front of a Sell Out Crowd!!!!
Submitted by Coach Potato on
.. not to mention the extra 4 hours sleep in!
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Yeah cool. Count me in Coach. Not alot to say this week only I still think that their will be some serious upsets. Let's see how many of these things I can get right. Lots of luck everybody with your picks.
Titans - Any team that can almost knock off Rabbits is team worth taking playing up against Tigers who are looking like bottom four team at best this season. Titans by eight points.
Sea Eagles - Almost beat Cowboys last week so I'm going with them to beat the Broncos this week. That and if I was Titan fan I would so organise it right now with my Legion mates to buy car load of tickets to this game at Suncorp and stand there during match with my back turned as a form of quiet protest against what Daly Cherry Evans did to them. Say what you like about him but personally that's no way for a Queenslander to treat fellow Queenslanders. As somebody who represents them at Origin level, Titans fans deserve a lot better than that ! Another close game. Sea Eagles by eight points.
Raiders - Raiders to come back strong in this game against constant strugglers, Newcastle Knights. Raiders by twelve points.
Warriors - Warriors to stun everybody as I predict (and that's only if I am right about Greg Inglis and he has been secretly playing injured all season hence Rabbits recent slump) blowout in this match. Our mate Newbie will be totally glad he went to this game. Warriors by sixteen points.
Storm - The Panthers won't win here as Storm don't lose that many in row. Expect complete reversal of what we saw from them on Monday night now Panthers have lost most of their star players now Moylan is out. Storm by eighteen points.
Roosters - This game will be grudge match for Roosters as they will be looking to avenge what happen to them this year on Easter Sunday when Sharks crucified them on field. Roosters by six points.
Bulldogs - Bulldogs to surprise Dragons here in tight contest. Bulldogs by four points.
Eels - Cowboys struggled to win at home against Sea Eagles then you have to favour Eels here, playing then at home. Eels by two points.
Thanks again everybody ! Thanks Thinker ! Go Warriors ! Kiwi Power ! Peow ! Peow ! #Bringbackthescrum ;-D
Submitted by a on
Hard round to tip
Submitted by Coach Potato on
That's vote #3
Submitted by Rick on
Hi Coach I am interested too, count me in please.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Give it up Coach, we all want a piece of your genius. And its a sad indictment of the NRL that even with a billion dollars of assured revenue they have to stoop to tax dodging, that's before their share of tickets, merc, and other stuff. But the moment you said that it does make sense from a business point of view.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Tax strategies huh......an opportunity to relocate Cronulla out of the crowded Sydney market.
Singapore Sharks!!!
Submitted by Tailspin on
Hey everyone, here is another weekend of great NRL TV viewing
Broncos too good for Manly by 8
I'm going with the thinker on this one, Titans by 6
Toss of the coin and home team advantage, Knights by 2
Hmmm, is Inglis playing injured or not??? Rabbits by 4
Storm here but I'm not convinced, by 2
Roosters by a squillion, even with Gallen in
Bulldogs the favourites??? anyway, I'm picking the inform Dragons by 8
And last but not least, of course the Cowboys by 10
Have a great weekend :)
Submitted by Footy chick on
I'm in Coach.
Show us what you've got!
Submitted by a on
Here are my tips
Broncos by 8 I think Manly will be trying hard again but I think Broncos will pull it off here
Titans by 1 I think this will be a hard one to pick but I think Titans by 1
Raiders by 1 also a hard one but I will say Raiders by 1
Rabbitoths by 4 I think Rabbitohs will win 3rd straight in Perth here
Storm by 10 Their is no way in the world that Panthers will win
Roosters by 2 I think Sharks will fight hard because Sharks usually beat Roosters but I think Roosters will pull it off
Bulldogs by 6 I think Bulldogs are going to pull it off here
Cowboys by 10 I think Cowboys should win easily here
Submitted by christine on
coach count me in
Submitted by a on
Im in too coach
Submitted by Johnny Boney on
Hi Guys, this week I tipped...
Broncos by 10- Manly will be boosted with Cherry-Evans staying at Manly for a lifetime but Broncos with too much class so I picked Broncos here.
Titans by 6- Titans in here in a great game, Tigers without Farah, my reason why I put Titans.
Raiders by 14- raiders too good for the Knights here and have more points in the, compared to the Knights.
Rabbitohs by 10- Rabbitohs here due to warriors poor record at nib stadium and Rabbits are hosting so rabbitohs for me.
Storm by 20- Storm to smash Panthers here, Slater's back and Panthers have a poor record against Storm.
Roosters by 24- roosters to smash Sharks here, Sharks in poor form and even though Gallen's back for Sharks, I still think Roosters have way too much class for the Sharkies.
Dragons of course by 12- Dragons in a tough and brutal game. Graham back for the Dogs. But I'm a Dragons fan so the Saints for me.
Cowboys by 16- cowboys have too much class here.
Thanks a lot and cheers to everyone. Cheow.
Submitted by Wally Lewis on
Me too Count.
Submitted by a on
Did Wally Lewis just post a comment Oh My God he really,just did we are all in then
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Wow, that's a first. Good to see you here King.
Submitted by a on
Yeah King I hope that you post comments here more often
Submitted by Shanghai on
Yes indeed ... great to see The King put pen to paper (so to speak). I hope this is not a little teaser and there is more to come in the weeks to come.
I'm keen too Coach .......
My tips this week:
Broncos - too strong all round I think
Tigers - not with a lot of confidence but something tells me ....
Raiders - just because
Rabbits - love coming over here and have built a really strong local support base ... Perth crowd to get them over the line
Storm - should get the chockies in this one
Roosters - chookies should also get the chockies
Dragons - can't see the doggies winning but they have stunned me before
Cowboys - should do the business
Happy tipping and happy punting to those who partake
Submitted by Assa on
Currently sitting tied top on 57 at my work footy tipping comp. But this week I have gone the same as The Thinker. Now I'm very worried!!.
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Hi everyone,
I know this has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with this week’s games but what a great win to my Gooners in last Saturday’s FA Cup. Managed to get the right number of goals scored (4) but got the scoreline wrong (3-1 instead of 4-0). Damn, so close too. The $12.00 was looking good for a while but hey, these things happen.
As mentioned previously, Newbie tends to over think the games so decided last week not to look at who were playing who until tonight and then to limit myself to 15 seconds decision time in picking who I thought would win. Maybe that’s why a few might seem a bit suss. Then again, you never know what might happen.
Having said that, I reckon it’s time we got this show on the road…
Broncos - don’t worry about the Friday night curse Boss. You should get this one.
Titans - ditto
Knights - really? Just one win since round four? Gee, I have my doubts now as well. Still, you’d think they have to come good sooner or later eh?
Rabbitohs - yeah, this one is here in Perth. A few things happened here and there and upshot is that Newbie can’t make it to NIB. Damn! The Bunnies love playing here. The Boss’ comments are “spot on”. Sorry Johnny, can’t see your boys getting up. Mind you, I’ll be pleased as punch for ya if they do. Especially if it’s by 16. Best of luck brother.
Storm - they’ll want to erase last week’s effort from their collective consciousness.
Roosters - after last week’s dazzling performance, who else could I tip? Mind you, I still remember recent occasions when the Sharkies ambushed my boys when no-one gave them a chance. We’ll see eh? Shanghai, don’t forget to tune into GEM on Sunday bro’.
Doggies - haven’t seen the prices yet Boss. Favourites? Really? Newbie’s scratching his head. I’ll stay blue and white though.
Eels - not sure why I picked the Eels. Hey, I only had 15 seconds to make my mind up. Then again, Baggy is full of confidence with this one so you never know. Fingers crossed!
Ha-ha, just thought of something. As I was typing out the word “Knights” in my tips above it reminded me of the name of a racehorse that used to race mainly in Qld a few years ago. The name of this equine was Pistol Knight. Get it? No, it has nothing to do with guns or pistols. It was a play on words to do with alcohol. Now do you get it? Excellent! Took me a while to get it I must admit but when I did I thought to myself (1) what a brilliant piece of word play and (2) how the hell did Qld Racing allow it. I do seem to remember there was a trotter with the same somewhere in the world but I’m thinking it was a long time ago. Awesome!
@ The Coach - yeah, reveal your secret formula. In years to come when everyone has forgotten it, you and I could possibly be making some pocket money on the side using said formula.
@ King Wally - is that really you King? Or is someone just having a bit of a laugh? Hey, if you are the real McCoy, what about giving everyone here in Thinker-Land a “shout out” Friday night if you’re commentating at the game. Man, would that be cool or what!
OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Until next week people. Cheers.
P.S. If Mars had earthquakes would they be called marsquakes? Hmmm…
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Hmmm? That's a very generous invite Footy Chick.
..oh! Yeah right. Of course, the formula. Cool. Ok. Just excuse me a moment while I count to 20 and think of blank paper. ... 18...19.........20. Right, so where were we then? Oh yeah. Ok. Well thanks everyone for your responses. Looks like you are all keen to know who the winner in 3 is this year.
You may recall our tutorial earlier in the season where we discussed the hypothesis that to finish in the top 4 a team required to have their three best streaks totalling 10 or more games, single games not counting in the score. Also a team with 4 streaks of say, 4...3...2..and 2 would still only score 9. The last one not counting. That's just the rule.
The Premiers theory takes this analysis one step further. The assumption is that to be crowned champion NRL team, you need to have a streak score in the top 3 come round 26. A streak score outside the top 3 just doesn't translate to winning the big one. Here, I go back as far as that vintage year of 2003. Nice note to finish on I thought. Tell me if you think my hypothesis shows as confirmed or disproven?
2014
Sydney 13
Canterbury 12
South's 11 **** Premiers
Manly 10
Penrith 10
Manly (2nd) Penrith (4th) but neither in top 3 streaks. Canterbury (7th) but 2nd in streaks.
2013
Sydney 16 **** Premiers
South's 14
Melbourne 14
Manly finish 4th, but only with a streak score of 11
2012
Canterbury 15
Melbourne 12 **** Premiers
Souths 12
Manly 12
2011
Melbourne 17
Brisbane 16
Manly 13 **** Premiers
2010
St George 11 **** Premiers
Penrith 11
Gold Coast 11
Sydney finish 6th, but with only streak score of 9
2009
St George 14
Canterbury 13
Gold Coast 12
Melbourne 8 **** Premiers
The only year in recent times that didn't fit the formula. Even 8th placed grand finalist Parra had a better streak score of 9.
2008
Manly 14 **** Premiers
Melbourne 12
Cronulla 10
Sydney 10
2007
Melbourne 19 **** Premiers
Manly 16
Nth Qld 11
2006
Melbourne 18
Canterbury 12
Brisbane 10 **** Premiers
Newcastle 10
2005
St George 15
Wests 13 **** Premiers
Brisbane 12
Parramatta win the minor premiership with an incredibly low streak score of 10. Not in the top 3. Tigers finish 4th, but with 2nd best streak score. Cowboys finish 5th, but with only a streak score of 9.
2004
Canterbury 16 **** Premiers
Sydney 13
Brisbane 11
Penrith 11
Roosters take the minor premiership, but Canterbury easily the best streak score.
2003
Penrith 17 **** Premiers
Canberra 14
Sydney 12
Canterbury 12
Panthers need to win the last round to secure the minor premiership but compare their score to the Roosters.
So talking 2015, there's not much doubt the Cowboys with their record breaking first streak, are assured of a score in the top 3. As for the other 2, Broncos and Dragons looking ok but really is a little early because there isn't even a team with 3 streaks. Here is the streak ladder so far. My Panthers definitely are playing more like the streak ladder, than the real ladder.
Cowboys - 9
Broncos -9
Dragons - 8
Roosters - 5
Storm -5
Rabbitohs - 5
Warriors - 5
Knights - 4
Sharks - 3
Titans - 3
Raiders - 3
Bulldogs - 3
Sea Eagles - 2
Panthers - 2
Tigers - 2
Eels - 0
And on that note, I've got some more counting to do
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Coach...Couch...Count..wel close enough I guess, although just dont forget to type the "o" , Walter James Lewis AM
Submitted by a on
So Cowboys might be premries this year
Submitted by Coach Potato on
1 in 3
Submitted by a on
Do you think Cowboys can win anyone else's
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Nice counting Coach.....I gotta say that's a fair amount of analysis there. Round 13 shaping up to be one of the toughest this season. Here goes...
Broncos - I have to stick with the home team who have shown good form all season but I expect Manly to be on the rise in the coming weeks.
Tigers - Tipping here with no confidence. Playing at Leichhardt swings me only just.
Knights - I liked what I saw of the Knights last week despite being down on troops.
Rabbitohs - While the Warriors have been winning of late it's been winning ugly against teams a lot weaker than the Bunnies. I just can't tip them here.
Storm - To bounce back this week. It will be a must win game for them during the Origin period.
Roosters - Impressive last start against the Storm. Surely too strong for the Sharks.
Bulldogs - The Doggies are starting to get past all their suspension and injury woes and are beginning to look stronger. This will be a real test for them.
Cowboys - It will be no surprise to me if the Eels win this one. NQ can't keep winning forever.
@Christine...hope you are feeling better.
Good luck everyone and enjoy the long weekend in OZ.
Submitted by Tailspin on
I'm in couch, keen to see what you got
Submitted by Tailspin on
Ha ha, that was a bit late couch, but great sums, hope the cowboys go all the way. Can anyone explain to me why the Dragons betting odds are bigger than the Dogs because if you are betting on form it doesn't make any sense.
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