Round nine selections

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Wests Tigers – Thursday night – ANZ Stadium

It seems a long time ago, but it wasn't, when the Rabbitohs and Tigers were at the top of the table. Both teams won their first two games of the season, and by convincing margins. The Bunnies scored 90 points in their first two outings, but they haven't scored 20 points in a game since. The Tigers scored 70 points in their first two outings, and have scored 20 points in a game just once since. I'm no mathemagician, but if you want to win games you need to be scoring points. Last weekend the Tigers conceded 60 in what will probably be their low water mark in season 2016 - at least I hope it was. We're likely to see a Dead Tigger Bounce on Thursday night but how high can Tigger bounce? These two teams have managed just one win between them in the last six rounds, but at least the Bunnies had a go last Friday night. Clearly the Tigers put the cue in the rack against the Raiders, and that's not rugby league. Not the rugby league I like I tells ya. Neither team can be tipped with confidence but I can't the Tigers full stop.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 4

Result - Tigers 30 defeated Rabbitohs 22

Parramatta Eels vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Friday night – ANZ Stadium

These sides met back in round three on this night at this venue, and the Eels absolutely dominated. The Bulldogs scored a consolation try to make the score (look) respectable, but all respect was with the Eels that night. Their forwards were expected to crumble under Bulldog pressure but crumble they did not. What makes that performance even more impressive is that they were without Nathan Peats and Manu Ma'u in that game, and both players are lacing on boots on Friday. Semi 'The Big Australian' Radradra scored two tries in round three in one of his best performances thus far. Given his recent call-up to national honours another big game wouldn't surprise. The Bulldogs are hard to get a read on this season - they drift in and out of games like a truck driver 42 hours into a 48 hour shift. If they're on they'll win, but they're on less often than Bert Newton at the minute.

Verdict – Eels by 8

Result - Eels 20 defeated Bulldogs 12

Penrith Panthers vs Canberra Raiders – Saturday afternoon – Carrington Park

Last week I pointed out how much the Panthers were scoring every round. They maintained the pattern in round 8 so I may as well point it out again - 22, 16, 23, 12, 20, 18, 16, 18. It doesn't seem to matter whether they're playing the Broncos or the Roosters, the Panthers score about the same number of points every game. The Raiders usually score more points than that, including in round one when they beat the Panthers 30-22 in Canberra. Now this game isn't in Canberra but it's not in Penrith either. Segeyaro returns this week, with Wallace switching back to the halves to replace the injured Martin. That's a darn good spine the Panthers have there (Segeyaro, Wallace, Soward and Moylan), but it might take them a week or two to gel. The Raiders are outsiders but backable at the price.

Verdict – Raiders by 2

Result - Panthers 19 defeated Raiders 18

Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday night – Allianz Stadium

I've an uneasy feeling saying this, but the Roosters are rolled-gold, lock-of-the-week, get-in-the-queue, red-spot specials this week. Everyone's favourite dog handler is back and he's bringing Waerea-Hargreaves with him. Those two will be desperate to get off the leash and onto the field. Here's to you Mrs Robinson had a bit of a spray after the ANZAC Day game, but let's be blunt - when you let your opponent get out to an 18-0 lead you can't afford a single dud call from an official. Laugh about it shout about it when you've got to choose. Every way you look at it you lose. The Knights have named a squad of 20 for this game so it's hard to know what their team will look like, but they haven't named Mullen and this very young Knights side will struggle without an experienced organiser and playmaker.

Verdict – Roosters by 20

Result - Roosters 38 defeated Knights 0

Manly Sea Eagles vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – Brookvale Oval

The big news leading into this game is that Sea Eagles captain Jamie Lyon has announced he will retire at the end of this season so he can focus on representative footy. Hyuk hyuk hyuk....I like that one....well done Thinker old chap. Regardless of whatever sense of occasion the Lyon announcement brings, the Cowboys are too good. Far too good.

Verdict – Cowboys by 10

Result - Cowboys 34 defeated Sea Eagles 18

New Zealand Warriors vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Sunday afternoon – Mt Smart Stadium

It looks like those bookies are going to let me back the Dragons again this weekend. Granted they have to travel all the way from Sydney to Auckland, but the Warriors have to travel all the way from Melbourne to Auckland. If this game were in Sydney I suspect the Dragons would be favourites, but the Dragons have won 6 from 9 at Mt Smart. In fact, the Dragons have only lost to the Warriors four times anywhere. Warriors coach Andrew McFadden shook the cage and told everyone to lift their game or else. That didn't work last time and I've no reason to believe it will work this time. Mannering out. Lolohea out. I can't have them.

Verdict – Dragons by 4

Result - Warriors 26 defeated Dragons 10

Gold Coast Titans vs Melbourne Storm – Sunday afternoon – Cbus Super Stadium

The Storm haven't unleased in attack too often this season, but they did last week and they did in round two when they played the Titans in Melbourne. Billy Slater was a late withdrawal from that game and the virtually unknown Curtis Scott stepped in to fill the void. A 42-0 victory last round is difficult to ignore, even if the opposition that day was questionable. While the Titans have shown plenty of competitive spirit in recent weeks they've still lost four games in a row. I've no doubt they'll be competitive again this Sunday, but they're facing a team who know how to win the close games better than anyone else.

Verdict – Storm by 1

Result - Storm 38 defeated Titans 0 

Cronulla Sharks vs Brisbane Broncos – Sunday afternoon – Southern Cross Group Stadium

Those in the Shire are getting a little bit excited about their team in season 2016...and that's okay. They're winning games and they're playing with an expansive flair that we haven't seen from Cronulla for many years. But....and there's always a but, the Broncos have conceded just one try in their last three games. Cronulla are one of the form teams in the competition but the Broncos are the form team in the competition. Nikorima will be tested by the Cronulla forwards in the nine jersey as he takes on more minutes, but the return of Alex Glenn for the visitors eases some of my concerns on that front. It's the game of the round and it will go to the wire. Broncos...just

Verdict – Broncos by 4

Result - Sharks 30 defeated Broncos 28

Wally Lewis - round nine selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

  • RABBITOHS vs Tigers
  • EELS vs Bulldogs
  • PANTHERS vs Raiders
  • ROOSTERS vs Knights
  • Sea Eagles vs COWBOYS
  • WARRIORS vs Dragons
  • Titans vs STORM
  • Sharks vs BRONCOS

Comments

mark ashford's picture

Coach you have a great knowledge of the NRL rules.
Can I ask a question?
Not being a smartarse but just don't know.
Can I propose two scenarios?
a A player is heading for the line and he is tackled and ends up one foot short. The tackler is still hanging on and the ball has touched the ground. The attacking player then reaches out and grounds the ball over the line. Classic double movement I guess?....NO TRY

b A player is attacking the line gets ankle tapped and ends up one foot short of the line. No one is holding on to him but the ball has touched the ground. He is just short but reaches out and grounds the ball.
Is that a try or double movement?
I know about forward momentum but the player has clearly stopped.
Is it a try?
Thanks mate a genuine enquiry.

mark ashford's picture

"a" A message to you my friend. Keep up your support of the Cowboys.
They are a definite threat to go back to back.

I hope to be in Townsville later this year and would love to catch up for a beer or whatever.

Another Cows / Broncs GF would be the ultimate.

Thanks mate for doing the table for those not on our comp.

Dragons fanboy 2007's picture

Yeah you were right Big Pete, wasn't too cold for the match.

Coach Potato's picture

Titans get off with the NRL paying the fine.
Broncos refuse to open the front door and get off due to lack of evidence.
Cowboys with rep and international players throughout still with the same 17 that won last October. No questions asked.
What's the deal with protecting Qld and hammering the rest?

Baggy_Gee's picture

I was just trying to bring the ribbing back to teams and less personal, We all knew that this day was coming, and we knew what it would bring. It's a massive kick in the guts and see above for why the hurt is magnified. As to Foran, might be pressure, but he wouldn't have known the exact bearing his millions would have on the cap. People would have shook hands and answered "Don't worry about it mate, good to have you on-board" if he had asked. I do think it is more about his life outside football and we should tread very gently. He seems a genuine bloke and those guys sometimes get their stories muddied because people are looking for an angle.

BigPeteBx's picture

Evening Dragon FB - they got a good crowd and I think Coach Potato but have been impressed, as he didnt even make comment to me afterwards about nthe condition of the ground. He'd have been extra happy because his Panthers went prowling in the park.

R u a Sydney-ite Dragon supporter mate?

I might ask a lot of questions, but its nice to get to know who is in Thinkers Tipping Team (TTT). Friendships, camaraderie develop from occasions like this.

Cheers - enjoy your week.
Big Pete in Bx

Coach Potato's picture

Here's a littl' somthn I put together. Hope y'awl like it

(Sung to the tune 'Lyin Eyes' by who else - ......The Eagles)

You caaan't hide those Lyon dives, immobiiilllle just to save those tries, I thought by now, you'd reaaaaallllliiiiiiiiissssssssssseee. There ain't no way to hide those Lyon dives.

What do you reckon Fortress?
Should Suncorp belt this one out during the game next week? I think it'd be a riot myself.

BigPeteBx's picture

Evening Tiger - I'd say whatever the penalty is in comp points, that Eels would need to play to pay the debt they owe in comp points, until it cuts itself out. 12 points were deducted today, as that is what they had to their "credit", but that isnt to say somewhere in the NRL Hierarchy Agenda, that more isn't to come. Then Eels can settle down to play for a points profit. Assuming that is!!!

Big Pete in Bx

BigPeteBx's picture

A great song that Coach - The original Eagles song that is.
Great band. I saw them last year at Syd Entertainment Centre. Great rockers who made their guitars talk. Then the loss of Glen Frey, who passed away this year. That will be another show I wont forget.

But Coach, I'll have to get you onto The Footy Show, to do your rendition of it. Put another couple of verses to it and instead of a riot, it might bring the house down and Manly walks away with another win.

I like your thinking though!
But I dont think Fortress will come in that easy this time.

Cheers and enjoy the remainder of your week. BTW - is The Red Cow still near Penrith Railway (NOT train) Station?

Big Pete in Bx

The Thinker's picture

It's probably not this simple, but I'm a simple man and it's a simple game....so here's my plan for the Eels.

They release Anthony watmough effective immediately. He picks up a gig as a rep for Pirtek for a while and signs a lucrative contract with a Super League club to see out his on-field career.

With that and that alone, the Eels are under the cap, and their current squad continues on.

The loss of points hurts but we are about to enter the Origin period. The Eels might lose Jennings to NSW....might. They should be able to make some inroads. It's ridiculoulsy unlikely they can win....but I'd love to see them try.

Coach Potato's picture

Hi Mark

If the ball is grounded, (ie the ball carrying arm hits the ground) and there is so much as a defender's hand is on the player at the time this happens, a tackle has been effected and technically the player is not allowed to promote the ball any further than natural momentum would take them.

If, however, the ball carrying arm hits the ground and there is noone touching the player, no tackle has been effected. The most technical real life example of this was the Krisnan Inu try semi-final wk2 versus the Tigers. You may think blatant double movement until they slow it down. Inu goes up for the bomb, although it comes off Tiger Tuqiri and the ball somehow falls back in Inu's lap. He reaches out to score only to come up (yes), a foot (maybe even inches) short. The problem is Tiger Moltzen in attempting to save the try, fails to put a hand on Inu. So Inu is yet to be tackled. (You cant tackle yourself). So he is free to go again. He does, and this time scores.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvKKjQIm1AI

a's picture

Thanks Mark it would be great to meet somebody from this site I don't think I know anyone from this site

BigPeteBx's picture

Its started mate - what a Country lad here, has done.
Mateship brewing already!
Keep the vision alive!

Tell me "a" - do you live in Townsville.
Been there twice now, but that was back in late 70's early 80's. Cowboys Stadium wasnt even built then, but I did stay out at Kirwan.
I actually saw the band Split Enz, do their last concert tour up there before they broke up. I also met Dean Lukin (Aust Olympic Powerlifter) over at Townsville Motor Boat Club (when he was guest for Marlin Fishing Contest) and attended with some friends, The Sth Townsville Football Clubs presentation night held at Townsville Intl Hotel (Sugar Shaker it was know then). Gene Miles was special guest that night. Aaah the memories!!!

Cheers - Big Pete in Bx

Coach Potato's picture

Thinker, for all your thought, the basic problem is getting to 28 points. There are only 15 games left + the 2 byes. They need to win 12 times out of 15.

One of the teams above them may have been able to achieve this feat, but not Parra. To get to 28, they would need to achieve the equivalent of 40 points in the season which is even tough for a minor premier.

Not impossible, but I dont think so. It's over.

Take it to court Parra. Use Titans lenient penalty as exhibit A.

Rocket Ryan's picture

Eaglesssssssssss Boy how much to deliver few pizzas to suncorp for the upcoming double header,at least you'd get something out of the night.

Fortress eagle's picture

How are ya mark ads ford thanks mate for your kind words. I enjoy reading your posts as well as you are passionate about your broncos so I am passionate about my eagles, we are what makes this great game survive we are the unsung Heros there is nothing wrong with been a die in the wool supporter. And yes coach I was born at the fortress the kingdom is mine and I'm very happy to be crowned the king eagle.mark I think the big game next week should be a cracker we do get our troops back the snake,Api and turbo tom and I believe Jamie brurer is back he is a work horse full strength at last and a bigger turnaround thank god in my mind these 2 clubs for consistency for titles won for sheer attacking brilliance are the best of the modern era they always have great clashes over the years and yes we have a great record at suncorp should be the game of that round your mob in my mind are the yard stick this year so to knock ur team over would give the eagles a huge boost for the rest of the year but it won't be easy but footy is a funny game and one never knows mate and yes I'm a blues man but the qlds have built a dynasty up there mind boggling record this years series will go down to the wire I believe can't wait mate.And a big hello to big Pete my fellow mighty eagles supporter hope all well with you buddy. And to rocket gee mate hate to think what you might do to yourself if we do happen to knock your mob over dear oh dear anyways as I always say go the mighty sea eaglesssssssssssssss

Fortress eagle's picture

Rocket sorry mate the only thing I would offer you is a flock of eagles to swoop down on to suncorp bring you back to the fortress where you will be imprisoned for ur treason. I wouldn't be too sure rocket I think with all our troops back this could be a real fight to the death and we do have a great record up there gee u could be in for a very bad weekend. And as I always say go the mighty sea eaglessssssssssssssssssssssssas

Fortress eagle's picture

Hey coach how bouts this one for thurston a 70's disco hit knock on ball knock on ball I don't wanna lose you a good ball but I thought I would try but even if I could it's like thunder lightening I really thought it was freightening when the refs knew I was telling a liartring. How's that Amy Stewart big hit of the 70's for mr thurstons fibbie on scoring his try good song to belt out at suncorp now that would be a hoot hey cowgirl gee gone bit quite there cowgirl what's happened getting bit too much of ya she will be rite mate take a bex and lie down. And as I always say loud and proud go the mighty sea eaglessssssssssss

Coach Potato's picture

Why don't Manly play the old Skyhooks hit - Ego is not a dirty word - just change it to - Eagle, is not a dirty word.

In fact, I grew up always thinking it was Eagle and this was a Manly song, until I found out much later the word was Ego.

Come to think of it, Manly shouldn't need to change the words at all.

a's picture

Hi BigPeteBox I live 2 hours outside Townsville

Coach Potato's picture

I didn't see any live action of the Manly v Cowboys game, and the highlights reel never showed the Thurston no try so I didn't comment, but I believe what you say. He would do this.

He claimed to have scored at the end of the Broncos game just 5 weeks ago where he also knocked on in the process.

Gotta admit, 'a', Thurston's a little cheat.

Apart from Jamie Lyon, Josh Reynolds, and Thurston, others that spring to mind include these. (I also class cheating as the ones that are notorious not only for lying down hurt, but for doing their best to win ruck penalties)

Maybe if we name and shame, they might cut out the crap ..

Cameron Smith
Cooper Cronk
Billy Slater
Anthony Milford
Darius Boyd
Jack Reed
Josh Reynolds
Andrew Fifita
Michael Ennis
James Maloney
Greg Eastwood
Sam Kasiano
Greg Inglis
Adam Reynolds
Robbie Farah
Blake Ferguson
Shaun Kenny-Dowall
Mitchell Pearce
Jared Waerea-Hargreaves
Tariq Sims
Steve Matai
Josh Dugan
Mitch Rein
Greg Bird

a's picture

You forgot about Paul Gallen and Kerin Foran too Coach I think you should add them on too

Rocket Ryan's picture

When you look at AFL and the draft system where picks go the bottom sides I can't help but wonder why the ARL do not try again to put in place the system it spreads the best young talent ,take the Foran from Manly to Parra deal that would've had to be a trade agreed to by both clubs Manly would of picked up some early picks and maybe a player they just don't see him walk away.
There are a few reasons why we don't have it but it is a strength in that code and American sports.

The Thinker's picture

Coach

I agree it's very unlikely....but if they get a sniff and some momentum it would quite an achievement.

Have a look at their draw for the rest of the year and point out the three games they can't win. Sharks away and Broncos away will be tough...but if they don't drop their bundle they'll just about start favourite in every other game.

Rocket Ryan's picture

So Thinker if the fairy tale came true we would see a club that rorts the system goes to extreme lengths to hide the wrong doings get what they want I hope not.

The Thinker's picture

Rocket,
They can only accrue points once they can prove they are under the cap so, theoretically at least, it's a level playing field. I hate cheating more than most but I'm comfortable with the penalty the NRL have come up with. I'm happy to hear suggestions if you've got any though.

And (rew) Gee whiz, let's not forget that the Broncos have 5 Kangaroos lining up in the ANZAC Test (plus 3 Kiwis) while the Eels have 1 Kangaroo - a Fijian winger on 250k a year. And if Semi wasn't playing he'd probably be replaced by a Bronco (Corey Oates).

Baggy_Gee's picture

We do have a chance, but as Todd stated a few time yesterday, that was the interim verdict. I take that to mean if we win a few before actual judgement you might find that there is a few more points rubbed of our ledger this year. We are done, Todd's waffle about being allowed to play for points if we clean up our cap space aside, I'd hate to break up this team. We as a team can do it, and I have full confidence in the BOYS to pull together and put in a good showing. But even a week of playing and winning for no points puts paid to that and the Watmough situation will not be resolved that quickly.

The Thinker's picture

Baggy,
At least they've got some time this week to get their house in order, and at least their next two games are played at home.

It's gotta hurt when it happens to the club you love, but you stick, and it's these moments that make the good times great.

Coach Potato's picture

But Thinker, I also very much disagree with your plan or anyone else's I've seen to get back under the cap again for 2016. It's all very much a manipulation of figures in itself don't you realise?

It all sounds very unfair to me and to the other teams & fans, if Parramatta get to keep all the players the want to keep, even though when all's said and done, most, if not all of those marquee players would have rejected the true Parra offer to join up. They wouldnt be there. Now books are being fiddled to make sure those players they nabbed illegally, can stay.

It stinks and unbelievably all the football community want to see is for exactly this to happen??? Everyone is up in arms about Parra rorting the cap, but then unanimously happy that they fiddle the 2016 books. The world's gone mad.

Personally, I feel they bought Watmough, and Foran illegally, and neither's contracts should be any further honoured.

Coach Potato's picture

... Did I forget Jennings? Yes, I forgot Jennings.
I reckon Gordon was offered extra carrots to join too. He can be on the list too.

Watmough and Foran illegally nabbed from Manly.
Jennings illegally nabbed from Roosters.
Gordon illegally nabbed from the Sharks.
That's my list.

a's picture

Gallen is defferently on that list also so is Foran and Luke

Dragons fanboy 2007's picture

Yes yes I'm a Sydney-ite

Fortress eagle's picture

Coach u have hit the mail on the head watmaough and foran were illegally taken from manly.throuh the eels desperation for winning a comp it's funny now that they have been found out they want us all to feel sorry for them look at what it did to my club a loss of 2 major players and greats at that I'm not saying it doesn't happen to other clubs but why cry about it after the fact they knew exactly what they were doing this is not a small rort this is a grand daddy.the salary cap has it's good points the main is for an even playing field the one that hurts is when u have a team that has a period of dominance and wins titles than hanging on to those players becomes a fight within the clubs.one more thing is having players signing contracts mid season I mean these players are still playing for there clubs they are still involved with that club for that year hoping to win the comp with there team how on earth are they going to concentrate or how are there fellow team mates going to feel knowing they are going to a rival club that following year and it could be they are going to play against that club the following weekend leave it to the end if the year when the comp is done for that year that way it doesn't disrupt the player or the club in general I mean it's a farce. My tip for the test match the Aussies to break a 3 game losing streak and beat the kiwis by 10 all the best everyone and as I always say go the mighty sea eaglessssssssssss

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