For those of you back from Mad Monday celebrations - feel free to chatter away on this page until season 2017 begins...if you want.
The Thinker
NRL tips from the biggest mind in Rugby League
The latest in NRL news
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Comments
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Please explain .. someone ?!!
Trent Merrin to score a try anytime .... $4
Sam Thaiday to score a try anytime ..... $4
Tyson Frizzell to score a try anytime .....$4
Shaun Johnson to score a try anytime .... $4
Te Maire Martin to score a try anytime .... $6.50
Surely the last 2 mentioned have three times as much chance as the first 3. Obviously not.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Coach,
You make a perfectly cromulent point...and most of your betting propositions during this tournament have been profitable ones.
At the risk of stating the obvious, I assume those prices are what they are based on the assumption that the Kiwis are in very average form and the Kangaroos are not.
I'd be writing off the draw with Scotland as an aberration rather than a reflection of where the Kiwis are at.
The Kangaroos will be watching Johnson like a hawk, because they (and everyone else) realise he can win this game on his own.
As for Martin, we aren't sure where he plays just yet. Some chance he joins Johnson in the halves but it's far more likely they go with Tohu Harris.
Sometimes these games sneak up on you and you end up with an International Test to remember....I'm hoping this is one of those.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Really ? Tohu Harris to get the 6 in front of Te Maire ?
That would be as disappointing as seeing Pearce reselected for NSW next year over Cleary, and Frizzell over Cartwright.
As far as my views on tipping goes, it's not unlike my wild and absurd weekly footy tip.
It's that things can happen where the odds suggest virtual impossibilty.
100/1 Prince of Penzance - Melbourne Cup 2015
66/1 Western Bulldogs - AFL 2016
60/1 Davison/Webb - Bathurst 2016
Not anything like those odds, but NZ $4.25 is the longest price they have been at any stage since the tournament started. What's more, they have planted the seed of false confidence into the heads of the Australian players.
Australia won game 1, 14-8 but NZ won the second half 8-4.
The last time NZ beat the Kangaroos in the second half was symmetrically, Four Nations game 1, 2014. NZ went on to win the final, as we know.
Te Maire Martin replacing Leuluai, makes for a stronger team, not a weaker one. I'll be taking $4.25 the win, and Martin $6.50 to score 4 points.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Finally the bar is set at the right height from the start, not just an afterthought if they make the finals.
http://www.nrl.com/panthers-want-a-premiership-tamou/tabid/10874/newsid/...
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Te Maire Martin to score a try + NZ to win .. $21. Sold.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
If anyone is not aware, due to Anfield being a soccer pitch, it has decided in the interests of player safety, to shorten the field of play to 91m, still only space for short ingoals, but a small buffer behind the ingoal area.
1/ is this actually legal? A field only 91m goal line to goal line?
2/ How undeserving is it to hold such an international final on such a shortened field. Do you think if Wimbledon was ever unavailable that they would be happy to play on a mini tennis court?
2/ How complicated will this game become? Will the 10m rule be reduced to 7m? If not you will be seeing teams take a 20m restart and down to the other red zone in only 3 tackles.
3/ How will the lines be marked? What about the 40/20? Will it effectively become a 40/25?
4/ Surely this is an afterthought? If this was a consideration at the time of granting Liverpool to host, it surely would have been deemed an unsuitable size pitch.
Just all sounds pretty farcical at best.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Oops. Looks like I made two point 2s!
Submitted by The Thinker on
Clearly Wayne Bennett didn't want to hang around and take in the atmosphere at Anfield....he just jogged past my house.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I've suddenly worked it out.
The markings on the field will look like they always do: 10, 20, 30, 40 etc. Just that these numbers won't represent metres. They will represent yards. (91cm in a yard)
The 10metre rule will immediately become a 10yard rule (which is only 9metres). Will the refs walk back an extra metre or will it be 9?
The 40/20, normally a 40m kick + a bit extra depending on the angle, will now be a 36m kick + a bit extra depending on the angle.
Maybe this was the Poms plan all along, to hopefully sneak into the final and then make it like playing Chess on a smaller size Chess board.
Pretty embarrassing for Rugby League in general.
At least Suncorp only skimps on seat numbers.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Coach,
They are rather odd - the rugby league 'laws of the game'. They set them out as laws, but then allow games, including World Cup internationals, to be played outside those laws when needed.
This Anfield situation is one such case. By law, you are meant to have 100 metres between the goal posts...but not in the Four Nations final.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Apparently NRL and International dimensions differ:
NRL GROUND DIMENSIONS
Field width: 68 metres (unless otherwise approved)
Length (goal line to goal line): 100 metres
In-goal areas: 8 metres (unless otherwise approved)
INTERNATIONAL DIMENSIONS
Field width: 68 metres (maximum)
Length: 100 metres (maximum)
In-goal areas: 6-11 metres
At least Anfield is the required 68m wide.
Only problem is the 91m length.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
The bit about player safety is BS.
The truthful reason why the main field of play is only 91m, is to accommodate 2 x 6m ingoals.
Behind each ingoal will be solid bitumen.
Player safety , BS.
It's because an ingoal of less than 6m is illegal.
We'll see how much player safety there is especially with it raining in Liverpool and forecast to continue for the next four days.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
We've had the wool pulled over our eyes since year dot.
Anfield - 101m by 68m
Old Trafford - 105m by 68m
Wembley - 105m by 69m
None have room for 100m field of play and two 6m in goals.
Did you ever have a thought that you were being fooled?
How do you feel now that the wool is off?
Submitted by The Thinker on
Sheesh....these rep teams go up a gear when Paul Gallen isn't playing :-)
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
The Fundamental problem is that soccer is the world game and has dominated the world long before Rugby League came on the scene. Now that England is hosting a world class League event they lack the facilities to accommodate it. 100m goal line to goal line is perfect for the round ball, the reason Australia has an abundance of proper grounds is the same as our Olympic record, we win more medals per million population than 90% of other countries and tend to win in more varied events than some of the other powerhouse nations. Because we have sports that don't fit a usual field and we dominate those sports, the rest of the world lacks the ability to adapt.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Pathetic that Tohu Harris was ajudged a better five-eighth option that Te Maire Martin.
All Harris did was play as an extra forward. He did nothing with the ball, and dummy halfs and ball players didn't want him near it anyway.
If you saw the Scotland NZ game you would have seen the only brilliance and spark in attack was the last 20 when they gave Te Maire a run.
When he wasn't in the starting 17, the result was sealed.
It's no different to the Kangaroos saying sorry JT, we are resting you and giving Tyson Frizell the number 6.
Pathetically negative and backwards thinking coaching and selection.
Money back on the Te Maire bet felt like a slap in the face.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Baggy, wouldn't you think the Rugby League playing regions of England earnt some kind of right to host the Four Nations games including the final?
Surely such a game deserved better.
Foul taste in the mouth to know that so many finals and the like have been played at Old Trafford, and Wembley under the exact same shorter field conditions.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I always get this uneasy awkward feeling when Australia plays and the NSW & Qld players hug in celebration.
I would much prefer if they kept it all to handshakes, and mumbled under their breathe something like "yeah good Try mate, but I still hate ya bloody guts".
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
It does but when the facilities don't match the minimum standards required by a national level compertition, let alone the international standard something has to be done.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Hi Thinker, Coach and Baggy not too many of us on here but just to stir the pot!
Darrius Boyd man of the match in in our reclaiming the title AND
Cooper Cronk the man of the series.
A couple of QLDers I do believe.
Looking forward to 2017 ORIGIN.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Moylan gets Man of the Match with Cronk and Smith playing in the team and then never gets another game. Kangaroos should grow an extra leg when the old timers stop hogging the limelight.
Darius didn't exactly do anything special. Made no mistakes but plenty could have said that, and he scored a try without grounding the ball. That was probably the most amazing thing he did all game.
Submitted by The Thinker on
I believe Darius is a better footballer now than he has ever been before. He's not even 30 yet, so it may be a few more years before we see Moylan in the number one jersey for the Kangaroos.
And what does NSW do with Moylan and Hayne – assuming Hayne doesn't leave again? They couldn't plonk Hayne on the wing again could they? Could they?
And I like Moylan....if you asked me who I thought was the next great of the game coming through he's the first I'd name without hesitation.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Cleary can play another 11 years and not be 30 yet.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
With the abandonment of Monday Night Footy (hip hip hooray), the short turnarounds for teams will, generally, relate to how often a team has to play on Sunday. Here is the 2017 draw in regard to games scheduled for Sunday.
If you notice anything stick out from this list, sorry, but you're not Einstein either.
Sunday games first 20 rounds
Tigers...9
Dragons...8
Panthers...5
Roosters...5
Sea Eagles..5
Warriors...5
Knights ....5
Storm .....4
Bulldogs ...4
Raiders ....4
Eels ....3
Rabbitohs ...3
Sharks ...3
..........................
Titans ....1
Cowboys ....1
Broncos ... 0
Submitted by mark ashford on
Coach your Moylan, Cleary and Mansour (providing he gets over his acl injury) will be superstars in the future (if not now) but in the meantime I'm enjoying the QLders dominance.
Really hope Mansour's injury is not too serious.
We QLDers need some real opposition at origin time!
Submitted by mark ashford on
Coach no club has a say in the draw. It's all about ratings and set by #9 and Fox. You should send your complaint (veiled) to the NRL
Submitted by The Thinker on
My son, for one, will be devastated by that draw for the Broncos.
That means they've been given one Sunday afternoon game in three years.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Wish for something a bit too hard sometimes they say.
Broncos Xmas Wish for no Sunday Footy comes true.
Pssst ... don't remind them that will count them out of the big one.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Mark, don't forget Cartwright, Merrin, & Tamou as part of your NSW fantasy.
Also don't count out Leilani Latu. Devastating runner last year and NSW born and bred.
So what have we got :
Moylan
Mansour
Cleary
Cartwright
Tamou
Merrin
Latu
Panthers taking on Qld.
18mths ago everyone laughed at the thought.
Now the thought concerns them.
Nice twist to that tale.
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Correct Baggy - it will always be The World Game. If rugby league can only be played among a handful of "nations", how could it even be classed as world. I'll stick up for the round ball code mate, because I know many a two codes rugby player that started out in soccer/football.
Mum and dad were usually right about acquiring a natural sidestep in soccer. I always say to always teach your kids to do little athletics, as they'll learn to run properly. They might even become sprint champs or beat the opposing player off the mark/spot.
Cheers mate and keep well - Big Pete
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Not wrong there Coach.
Broncos had plenty of power in Friday night games as they had a few of them and got tv rights payments for it as well.
Hmmmmm.......did John Grant look after that one.
Cheers mate - I've been having a probe about, whilst in recess.
Big Pete
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Hello Mark and hope all is well with you and yours.
Not too much of the red stuff being knocked over.
Nice to see that some of us still checking in to see the banter.
Coach is still driving the bus well.
Mate - looking forward to SoO 2017, will be good to see the mix and what youngsters get a look in. Darius B is playing some good football and it must be the ageing of the red stuff (tipple) doing that.
Keep well as we near the end of November.
Cheers - Big Pete
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Baggy and Coach,
The English game is a slight bit slower game (for Clydesdales in the mud shall we say), would bums on seats mean much more and who has the holding capacity to host.
Fear not for now, Aussies are World Champs and don't need to run extra distances to prove that.
Submitted by a on
QLD teams only have 2 Sunday games between them
Submitted by mark ashford on
Yes Coach you will have a formidable team next year all of whom can play for the Blues.
Our ageing "superstars" better be on their mettle.
No Sunday arvo games for the Broncs at home must be a disappointment for the Suncorp faithful. But how do you change the mindset of 9 and Fox.
Believe the Broncs have just signed David Mead from the Titans.
Speedy youngster but can he be controlled, hope he doesn't become another Roberts.
HI Big Pete, has the snow and ice gone from your part of the world?
Many years ago spent a month in Orange doing a job for the Orange Council really beautiful part of Aussie.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
All could play for the Blues, Mark, but we all know NSW selectors have a habit of retaining proven losers.
The 2017 team also boasts NZ internationals Sam McKendry, Dean Whare, Dallin Watene-Zalezniak, James Fisher-Harris, and Te Maire Martin.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
With all the amgst about 6pm starts, lots of people will miss big chunks of the game, and leave them unable to see it live, there is the Broncos who are completely unaffected.
With an endless list of Friday night games, not one of them is a 6pm start.
Let's be serious.
This isn't Channel 9 and Fox overruling the Broncos wish for fairness.
It's clear as the nose on your face about who rules who when it comes to Rugby League in his country.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Morning Coach,
In 2017 the wooden spoon favourites are, in order, the Knights, Dragons, Tigers and Sea Eagles. The Broncos play those teams only once.
The Panthers get to play all four of those teams twice.
When it comes to those favoured to win the premiership the Broncos will play the Sharks twice, Raiders twice, Cowboys twice and Storm twice. The only probable contender they don't play twice is the Panthers.
If I were to put on my gambling hat and plonk my hard-earned on one team for next year it would be the mob from the foot of the mountains.
It's highly likely they'll be undefeated after four rounds and I expect they'll be shorter then they are now.
By comparison the Broncos start the year with the Sharks, Cowboys, Storm and Raiders...they may not win any of those....so by my reckoning they are way too short in current markets.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
It's one treacherous strategy to use last year's standings as a guide to next year's.
Who would have clapped hands about facing Penrith twice last year
I know Broncos fans did. Need I remind?
Of course I should.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Thinker, Parra is to far away from the mountain to be called mountain men, maybe man mountains, but thanks for backing us for the premiership next year. ;P Its almost the new year and the chants of this is our year are starting to build, I for one am sure that the BOYS will go deep into September, and we shall prove that with or with out the new Judas Lyin' we have a good team to compete. Laughable thing is that based on the RL easiest draw rating, we are ahead of the Dogs who are the lowest, but they claim we have the easiest draw for next season. CARN THE BOYS!!!!!!!!!!!!
Submitted by mark ashford on
Coach just an innocent question...does anything satisfy you?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
To Mark.
#Fairness and Equity. An equal playing field.
#Panthers beating Broncos. Doesn't get any sweeter.
To Baggy.
Parra have sold their soul over the last few years.
Anything out that way 'not' up for sale?
If they were a regular business, this level of selling off would be a clearly 'in liquidation'.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Coach your "fairness & equity" statement doesn't hold water when you look at the draw. Your Panthers have a great start to the season.
Perhaps you would like to face the top 4 from last year and end up 0 from 4. You have a great team but remember the higher you boast the higher your fall.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
You don't know what you are talking about, again.
Roosters came 1st on the ladder in 2015.
How many teams whinged their asses out that they had to play them twice this year?
Raiders came 10th in 2015.
How many teams did handstands knowing they would play Canberra twice this year?
You may as well say it will be sunny tomorrow simply because it was sunny yesterday.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Anyways.....I fired an email off to Todd Greenberg as you do. It was meant to be tongue-in-cheek for the most part, while trying to make a point about the value of Sunday afternoon games to our tiniest NRL fans. Anyways....I actually got a response pretty darn quickly....which is nice. For those who are interested in such things, here is my email (for context) and the response below. It does give an insight into the obligations of the NRL under the existing broadcast deal:
Hi Todd,
I realise you can't please everyone (I've tried...its pointless), but my 7 year old son is going to be sad. You see, he likes the Broncos, and when he was five I took him to their only Sunday afternoon game all season. He loved it and wanted to go again, and I said we would go to the next Sunday game. In 2016 they didn't have any...and in 2017...they won't have any. Will you tell him...or should I?
p.s. other than that I think you're doing a smashing job despite the unending criticism from everybody...and I realise you need to keep the broadcasters happy when it comes to the Broncos...I get that...but my son just wants to go to a football game...and he can't.
Hi Thinker,
Thanks for your email.
We value your feedback and accept the draw will not suit everyone. It is important to note that match scheduling is an extremely complex process and is always a tough balancing act as we try to cater for the needs of 16 NRL clubs and their supporters, as well as the game's broadcasters, all with different priorities. Scheduling is also influenced by a number of other factors including club requests for specific match dates and venue availability.
Under the current agreement (ending in 2017), broadcasters will endeavour to show the matches that they believe will appeal to the largest section of fans. Broadcasters have invested significant amounts for this right and this funding is what underpins the clubs and enables us to develop all facets of the game, from the grassroots through to the elite level. Certainly there is widespread support for the Broncos which is one of the reasons broadcasters often select them for weekday night football.
Having said that, the Broncos have indicated they would like to play more afternoon football and next year the NRL will have more control over the draw. So we are very aware of the views of both the club and fans and will take that into account when drawing up the schedule next year. We value you and your sons' comments and I have ensured they are registered and passed on to our Football Department.
We thank you again Thinker, for taking the time to write to us and we thank you and your son for your support of Rugby League.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Bennett and the 3rd year.
Bennett had 3 years at the Dragons at which time I was time to upgrade salary and bugger the Red V.
He went from 2nd year Premier, to 3rd year 5th place and out by finals week 2.
At Newcastle, he stayed three years before he thought it was time to upgrade the salary and bugger working class man's team.
He went from 2nd year Prelim Final, to 3rd year 12th.
Now he's at the Broncos, but it's the dreaded 3rd year. He's gone from Grand Finalist 1st year to out by finals week 2 in the 2nd year. The downward 3rd year trend should be quite disturbing to Bronco fans (as much as the opposite for non-Bronco fans), afterall, it coincides with the year he usually decides to up stumps, which is never good for team harmony and spirit let alone form on the field. Add to that, Marshall who has dragged his teams down the ladder since who knows when.
I guess time will tell. Just don't remind Bennett his salary beyond next year is under review.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
No Rugby League player has ever been found guilty and received any criminal punishment for assaulting a woman.
The only ones I can think of are Greg Inglis and Kirisome Auva'a who both reportedly admitted their guilt but somehow matters never reached the full extent of the law.
If Radradra is found guilty and punished accordingly it would be a first (which you would think on probability is impossible). I mean, all demographic groups, all walks of life - the rich, the poor, the young, the old, etc etc etc have their criminal elements. The Rugby League demographic does not. So far.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Coach,
It's (obviously) an important issue but the sad reality is that the rate of criminal convictions for assault in Australia is low.
Less than 10% of assaults reported to police result in a conviction against the person responsible. And the percentage of assaults that get reported to police is low too....How low is very difficult to say.
Clearly the NRL take it seriously, and are trying to do what they can to be part of the solution rather than part of the problem. That's my take on it at least.
And you can't keep naming and shaming Greg Inglis. All the evidence, including the account of his wife, point to Inglis trying to stop his partner from self-harming.
Submitted by a on
Yes Inglis did nothing wrong
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Sorry, Thinker, but I merely go by what gets reported.
To suggest I'm skewing the truth at all is not really fair.
High profile people don't deserve the benefit of the doubt anymore than no-profile people don't deserve to be treated as guilty until proven innocent. Think of Inglis at the time, a 19y/o male aboriginal facing an assault charge. Had he not been a big. name footballer, he'd be doing time I'm sure. Stats on the 19y/o male aboriginal demographic probably makes it a certainty.
To have trust in the legal system to the extent that anyone walking out of court a free person is proof of innocence would be shamefully naive.
It was reportedly heard in court proceedings that Kenny-Dowall boasted to others about what he had done. Is it therefore possible that hearsay can include stuff you say about youself ??!
No charges were ever laid, or they were dropped, or something, but Greg Bird's girlfriend was glassed and so if it wasn't him, then surely there must be someone else out there that should have gone to jail.
The Radradra story, which appears to involve a full-term pregnant woman, is too horrifying to think about. I hope he's innocent of anything like this.
If he's not though, I hope the legal system applies regardless of being a professional football player.
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