North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos – Thursday night – 1300SMILES Stadium
Where relevant I'll do my best to explain the implications of different outcomes when it comes to the top eight.
The Cowboys, currently 7th, could finish as high as 5th and as low as 9th. 5th or 9th are unlikely, but possible. If they stay in the top eight they will be travelling to Sydney for the first week of the finals, unless they can get themselves into 5th or 6th place with a win on Thursday night. A loss means they could miss the eight, but may not. If the Dragons lose on Sunday, the Cowboys are in the top eight regardless of all other results. The Broncos, currently 3rd, cannot drop out of the top four, but there is a chance (albeit slim) that they can finish in the top two. With the Storm as minor premiers, no-one really wants to finish fourth. If the Broncos win, they avoid 4th.
I certainly gave the Eels a chance last week, but that performance by the Broncos in round 25 has me scratching my head harder than ever. It wasn't just the loss, or the magnitude of the loss – it was the way the Broncos lost that left me baffled. To quote Gus the Snail – it was very unBroncos. Poor defence and schoolboy errors...a repeat of that performance and they'll be losing again. My tip here is on a hunch really, and I'm hunching the Broncos one really bad game is out of the way before the finals commence. September is not the month to have a bad game. The Cowboys picked up their first win in a while last round but they had to work for it. I'm assuming a switched on Broncos is a tougher opponent than the Tigers. Five minutes into this game and we will know if the Broncos switch is on or off. I'm tipping on.
Verdict – Broncos by 10
Result – Broncos by 10
Parramatta Eels vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Friday night – ANZ Stadium
A home game for the Eels played at the home ground for the Bunnies, but given the circumstances I expect the Eels will still have the bulk of the support in the crowd. This game is essentially meaningless for the Rabbits – they can't even break into the top ten and the worst they can do is drop one place on the ladder from 11th to 12th. They aren't farewelling any legends of the club on Friday night...so why would they try? Pride I suppose. The pride of Redfern. The Eels could move to third (technically they could move to second but it's so unlikely it hardly seems worth mentioning). Even if they don't have the carrot of a top three finish to play for they can avoid the stick of falling out of the top four with a win. A loss and the Sharks can potentially take their place in the top four. Whether fourth spot is a carrot this season remains to be seen. As mentioned previously, fourth spot means a trip to Melbourne next week. In any case, I think the Rabbitohs are only turning up to this game to be polite, and the Eels would have to try really hard if they wanted to lose. I've seen some pretty weird things on rugby league fields over the years but that would be right near the top of the weird list. I say the Eels win this by 40, and head down to Melbourne with a sense of self-belief...and legitimately so.
Verdict – Eels by 40
Result – Eels by 6
Sydney Roosters vs Gold Coast Titans – Saturday afternoon – Allianz Stadium
Providing the Broncos and/or Eels win earlier games, the Chooks need a win to stay in the top two. The Titans could (possibly) move up one place on the ladder to 13th with a win, or could (possibly) slip down one place to 15th with a place. The Titans will be without James, Wallace, Peats, Roberts and Copley. The Chooks are one winger short of naming their best seventeen. Nothing is certain in this game, but this is right next door to certain.
Verdict – Roosters by 28
Result – Roosters by 4
Manly Sea Eagles vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday night – Lottoland
If the three teams below the Panthers on the ladder win the Panthers are out of the top eight with a loss. It seems unlikely, but it's not crazy unlikely. With a win the best they can do is move to fifth, which isn't much different to finishing sixth in the scheme of things. There's a little more pressure on the Sea Eagles – a loss leaves the door open for the Dragons to take that last spot in the top eight away from them. The Sea Eagles have had a pretty good season to be fair but to my eye it looks like they peaked some time ago. In the last three weeks they've lost to the 15th placed Tigers and the 12th placed Bulldogs and they barely got away with a golden point win over the Warriors (who haven't looked like beating anyone forever). Compare that form to the Panthers – in the last three weeks they have faced an opponent with everything to play for. The Panthers have won twice and lost narrowly to the Dragons last weekend. That form should be good enough, and the Panthers did beat the Sea Eagles in round 18. Given the circumstances I could almost call this for game of the round, except that every time the Cowboys and Broncos play each other they give us a rip-snorter.
Verdict – Panthers by 2
Result – Sea Eagles by 16
Melbourne Storm vs Canberra Raiders – Saturday night – AAMI Park
There are only two games this round that will have no influence on our top eight, and this is one of them. You don't need me to tell you how dominant the Storm have been this season, but let me tell you this – The Storm have a points differential of +271. Only one other team (Broncos) have a differential higher than +100, and the next best differential in the top eight is on +68. What's even more disturbing is that they are getting better as the season wears on (or their opposition is getting worse). In their last five games they've scored 190 points and conceded just 45. If they were performing at that level all season their points differential would be +667. Sheesus McSneezus. Is this competition over? It almost looks like it.
Verdict – Storm by 14
Result – Storm by 26
Newcastle Knights vs Cronulla Sharks – Sunday afternoon – McDonald Jones Stadium
I think we have all accepted that the Knights have won the wooden spoon, but I doubt any team has ever won the wooden spoon with as much class as the Knights have done in season 2017. I hope they pack the joint out on Sunday afternoon, and I hope they win. The Sharks can (potentially) finish 8th with a loss but it's pretty darn unlikely. If the Eels managed to lose to the Rabbits the Sharks could be playing for a top four spot (again...unlikely) and they're too far behind the Broncos on points differential to think they can move past them. So to me it looks like the Sharks may not have much to play for by the time this game kicks off. Because of that, and because they haven't been that impressive in recent weeks anyway, I'm tipping what the bookies are telling me is an outrageous upset. Those of you winning your tipping comps shouldn't do this, but I'm not winning so here goes nothing...
Verdict – Knights by 2
Result – Sharks by 8
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Sunday afternoon – ANZ Stadium
The good news for the Dragons is that they are definitely playing for a top eight spot...unless the Panthers and Sea Eagles game ends in a draw. The Red V have a superior points differential to the three teams above them on the ladder. It's a big game. Note that this is the second game this round where the home team is playing at ANZ – the home ground of the away team. The Bulldogs are in a rich vein of form by their standards, and they did beat the Dragons earlier this season, but given the circumstances I can't see them winning this.
Verdict – Dragons by 8
Result – Bulldogs by 6
Wests Tigers vs New Zealand Warriors – Sunday night – Leichhardt Oval
It's almost cruel that these two teams are playing the last game of the regular season, because these are the two teams that would really like this season to be over. The Warriors have won just one game away from home all year. The Tigers might be in 15th place but I've no reason to believe the Warriors will do anything to improve their away record now. The Tigers get to farewell Aaron Woods and James Tedesco with a home game...and Woodsy loves this ground. Back the big hairy bear to score a try at any old price.
Verdict – Tigers by 8
Result – Tigers by 12
Wally Lewis - round twenty six selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.
- Cowboys vs BRONCOS
- EELS vs Rabbitohs
- ROOSTERS vs Titans
- SEA EAGLES vs Panthers
- STORM vs Raiders
- Knights vs SHARKS
- DRAGONS vs Bulldogs
- TIGERS vs Warriors
Comments
Submitted by a on
Yeah I think Sharks will win 13+
Submitted by mark ashford on
Now there you go Devil, that was funny. Your humorous side is sneaking out.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Kenny Edwards......dear oh dear oh dear
Submitted by The Thinker on
You can say that again Thinker....dear oh dear oh dear
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
My most profound and sincere apologies for anyone who heard a scream a few minutes ago. I just can't stand it.
Submitted by Mary S on
Well, Eels have done it 22/16, but certainly in a much tighter game than anyone anticipated!! Bunnies put up a bl......y good fight!
Submitted by a on
Annoying devil witch team do you support
Submitted by newbie from perth on
@ BigPete
Yeah, Perth Stadium should scrub up well when it’s all gussied up. Belmont is about 4 or 5 kms out of the city centre heading east. From East Perth you’d head over the Swan River onto Great Eastern Hwy. The Swan River on the left hand side and Belmont on the right. Don’t worry mate, it’s miles away from the WACA and GP. My brother actually contacted me today about getting some tickets for the double header. Gonna try and organize a “posse” to go up and partake of the gladiatorial spectacle. Should be (Johnny) Awesome!
I’ve just remembered that Belmont used to have a side in the local Perth competition back in the day and they had the Rabbitohs strip. Then a Kiwi fella that earned a ton of money up on the oil rigs up the coast turned around and bought the club. Didn’t take long before he changed the name to the Perth Kiwis and changed their strip to all black (and maybe a bit of white but not sure). Proceeded to wave the big bucks at all the good players from all the other clubs and was winning premierships almost straightaway. They no longer exist as a club though. Over here we have a couple of divisions with the main league consisting of:
Rockingham Sharks
Fremantle Roosters
South Perth Lions
Joondalup Giants
North Beach Sea Eagles
Kalamunda Bulldogs
In the other (lower) division(s) I think we have:
Willagee Bears
Mandurah Storm
Ellenbrook Rabbitohs
Kwinana Wolves
Alkimos Tigers
Yeah, doesn’t look that great but you have to remember that our overall player base is competing with 1) a smaller population and 2) guys (and gals too) that want to play Aussie Rules (we are an Aussie Rules state after all). Everyone who plays RL over here do so because of their passion for the game. And for that reason I salute them, one and all.
Finally, apologies but Newbie is not a fan of the BBL. I just barely “tolerate” the one day version but absolutely love Test Cricket. I know some people might say that it’s as boring as bat s - - t but I love it. It’s a “test” of how patient both the bowler and batsman are in achieving what they want to do. Block. Block. Let it go. Block. Let it go. Whoosh! with a glorious hook shot for 6. Block. Vicious square cut for 4. That’s what I love. I understand and accept that people want some fast paced action and a result on an evening out but nah, not for me.
Thanks for the post bro’ and you keep well also. Cheers.
Submitted by The Annoying Devil on
All jokes aside I'm proud to come from Northern Ireland my father was a mobile pastor who would drive around and assist in baptism marriage and funerals his business was called Hatchem matchem and despatchem He said I was annoying because I asked too many questions
One day we were driving and he took me to a forest sat me down next to a fire and pulled out a bottle of holy water and splashed me with it he said how does it feel son I said it burns
On his death bed he said son remember the forest that was my greatest work I drove satan out of your body as gods water burned your body.
I never had the heart to tell him it burned because he sat me to close to the fire.
Submitted by Havanna on
Hey everyone, and Good Morning wow what an exciting weekend of footy. Mark your team got up well done, you must be chuffed.Gosh so many great games today. Hope lady luck smiles upon you all, have a Super Saturday good people..................................................................
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Good morning all our happy Thinker site tippers and posters.
Thought you might like to know, if you find time between tomorrows NRL match, to flick over to Prime TV 5.30pm and watch the segment of Mike Whitneys Sydney Weekender Show, which was produced here close to my "haunts".
It will take you on a 4 wheel driving tour of Abercrombie River National Park, Two Heads Brewery just 4 minutes walk from where I live and into The Alfred which is only a few doors away.
Cheers and enjoy your weekend, good luck to all your teams and Happy Fathers Day to all, tomorrow.
Remember, we are all fathers, or act to be that missing link to something missing in our lives. Have a cheery, but not teary day.
Keep well - Big Pete
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Thanks for the great transcript Newbie.
I know of some of those places. I recall Kwinana from rail days, as I think it was a port for ships/containerisation/exports etc.
When I worked with NSW Railways in freight, we used to send quite a bit of Edgells Cannery products (produced here), to Parkeston then onto Kewdale.
Never fear Perth was also a lover of their round ball code of footy - soccer. Perth Glory had some good players come to their ranks in A-League. Several good coaches/managers as well, but for many, it was a working holiday mate.
Newbie - I like the sounds of that North Beach Sea Eagles.
May I ask what their club colours are?
Cheers - Big Pete
The news is with new Perth Stadium, the NRL double header is a go'er, but NRL wont release opposing teams, until the release of 2018 NRL, draw towards the end of this year.
Submitted by The Annoying Devil on
Hello a
Im a rabbitoh
looking forward to next year with Gagai and Inglis returning from injury
Just heard that Maquire wont be the coach next year.
Submitted by christine on
Annoying devil I was a souths member in 2015 & I wouldn't believe those rumours about Maguire unless it is officially announced , how do you go being an irish souths supporter do you go to the home games & have you met the warrior he's at every game ?
Submitted by The Annoying Devil on
Yes im a member and Im pretty sure its no rumour its as obvious as Jim Dymock coaching the dogs next year.
Submitted by christine on
Annoying devil Watch this space in regards to Maguire & see what happens , i'm no longer a souths member so I don't really care who the coach is ...
Submitted by a on
Titans almost did it
Submitted by The Walkin Dude on
Tipped Roosters (obviously), but was hoping the Titans would do one thing right this year and get it done at the end there. No dice.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Roosters sneak home against a determined Titans without Neil Henry.
Eels not so good last night, Rabbits nearly got them.
If big Sam had played it may well have been a different result.
Only convincing game so far is Broncs over the Cowboys.
The Annoying Devil
You have stopped being "annoying" and started to offer some RL comment
Maguire and Hasler have had a poor year results wise.
I thought Hasler had been offered an extension, don't know about Maguire
Apart from "pub talk" how sure are you
Submitted by newbie from perth on
@ BigPete
Back in the day North Beach wore Manly colours. All our local teams “borrowed” team strips from the Sydney clubs. All my friends and relatives who followed (and played) RL were Fremantle Roosters and we wore Eastern Suburbs (as the Chooks were known back then) colours. I’m pretty sure all the Sydney clubs used to “sponsor” our clubs to a certain degree with free jerseys and socks and what-not. But North Beach definitely wore the Manly strip of old.
Back in those days North Beach were a “powerhouse” club and were winning flags left, right and centre. There was an intense rivalry between North Beach and Fremantle. They were roundly viewed as the “Silvertails” (just like Manly were in days of old) as they had a lot of cash at their disposal whereas Fremantle always seemed to do it hard. Had some great clashes over the years and as spectators, some heated arguments sideline (fuelled by too much alcohol I must admit) but always had a laugh and a beer in the club after each game, whether it was home or away. Great bunch of people up at North Beach and a beautiful part of Perth right on the coast to boot.
Unfortunately I’m not sure what sort of strip they have now but it just might be the “Manly-style” one that’s maroon with a big white V on the front. Whatever it is, you now have a local team to follow in the WARL. Congratulations Big Pete. Hope this helped. Cheers bro’…
Submitted by The Annoying Devil on
Yes mark got the mail on Maguire from a good source and it wasn't reggie the rabbit
Dessie has been offered an extension but I'm hearing he's a dead man walking Dymock bleeds blue and white and has served his apprenticeship
Submitted by a on
Come on Bulldogs you can beat Dragons tomorrow
Submitted by mark ashford on
Great win by Manly over the Panthers. Interesting they were favoured to take the crown this year. What went wrong?
Is "Hook's" job in doubt?
With all these coaches being sacked (supposedly) who will replace them
Submitted by christine on
Big pete well done to your team for tonights win & how are the eyes today ?
Submitted by mark ashford on
Storm V Raiders
after 20 minutes it's 20 nil.
have a look at the 2 teams
storm all lean, muscled and hungry for a win
raiders, half the team look like they have just spent 24 hours in an all night maccas.
Submitted by The Annoying Devil on
James graham signed with st George
Submitted by Footy chick on
Mr Thinker
Phil Gould is quoting you again tonight. He's definitely reading your tips.
Hi Phil xxx
Submitted by mark ashford on
TAD
I'm having a bit of trouble coming to grips with all this.
James Graham (one of the dogs best) to the Dragons to make room for Woods (arguably one of the tigers worst) and Josh Reynolds (another dogs best) going to Tigers to make way for Keiran Foran (who is one of the warriors worst, played his best at manly) Tedesco going to who knows where to allow who? to come into the Tigers.
Esse Esse and Moga, 2 of the Broncs best going to the Knights to allow WHO to come in? Gagai the Knights best to Souths Plus the many other mid or late season transfers on the cards.
WTF is going on with retention staff at the clubs.
Submitted by a on
Well I hope James Graham wins his final game at the Bulldogs club tomorrow
Submitted by EagleROCKS on
Up the mighty sea eagles, chants the crowd around the ground.
This is our year, sea eagles to win. Its been won by the dragons, the rabbitohs we dont deny, but this is our year so join in our cry.
Manly Warringah, Manly Warringah.
They'll all be waltzing behind you this year.
Manly Manly Manly is the chant you'll hear around the ground.
They'll all be waltzing behind us this year.
Up the mighty sea eagles is the cry you hear above the din.
Manly Warringah, the eagles to win.
From Cronulla to Penrith. From Brookvale to the cricket ground.
Join in our chorus for we are victory bound.
Manly Warringah, Manly Warringah.
They'll all be waltzing behind you this year.
Thats the song you will hear as they run onto the cricket ground.
They'll all be waltzing behind us this year.
Manly Warringah, Manly Warringah.
They'll all be waltzing behind you this year.
Thats the song you will hear as they run onto the cricket ground.
They'll all be waltzing behind us this year.
We crushed the pussy cats, and showed all our critics and haters once again what a mighty and legendary club we support.
Keep it up boys lets go get them!!!!!!!!!!
Rockin and Rollin at the Mighty Fortress Brookvale Oval!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Submitted by christine on
Mark You forgot blair to go to knights as well in your transfers ...
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Thanks Newbie - sure did help and well described for me.
I sure know the logistical and geographical layout of it now.
Cheers mate and keep well - Big Pete
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Thanks Christine - I had faith in the lads at Brooky yesterday evening.
Big event for them as they farewelled Brett Stewart and Matty Ballin as players calling it a day. Steve Matai was included. but I'm not sure if he was present.
Eyes aren't going too bad, except for glare and needing my sun glasses at night and day. Nah.....just day. Night is for the humming songs, some have here with us.
Have a nice Sunday - Big Pete
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Morning Eagle Rocks and nice to see you in rhythm and song, this fine Sunday morning.
We as a club, have been known lately and labeled as non-travellers, unless it is over The Coat Hanger to attend a Grand Final.
Well, its a long slog from here, as finals footy is a complete new ball game.......but it is achievable, as we did once before from around 7th.
ANZ is the location these days, so I guess we can take a short cut to there. Pabdul might even be there to greet us.
Hahahaha...............but anything can happen in this open NRL Comp we've seen this year. I'll now take it week by week and see what develops.
Cheers - Big Pete
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Morning Mark A.
Coming to grips with it, can be confusing, when deals are done and new signings being made, right in business end of a season. Any season for that matter and it should stop, as it intrudes on the playing season and confidence in players.
EPL in UK has a transfer window, when all deals are done. That is it and if you miss out, you wait for the next window of opportunity to arrive.
I think they have two each season and players need to be signed, sealed and delivered (yes, I'm yours) humming..... by midnight on the said close off date.
Cheers mate and have a nice Sunday - Big Pete
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Nice to see a Manly fan who knows that bridges exist and the SFG is no longer the venue of the finals. Looks like you'll be lining up again against the Panthers next week too Pete. Just not sure of this round, a lot of teams coasting to easy wins that they were expected to get. Might run into a rested Panthers side next week but it's always a crap spot in the eight to finish as its sudden death from here on in. Best of luck Pete with both the next round and your recovery.
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Good morning Havanna and Tigerholic.
Looks like Tigers might just have the edge tonight in Round 26.
Foran and Johnson ruled out of Worriers oops Warriors and Elijah Taylor out of Tigers. Think Elijah has a rib injury, in update I received last night.
Benji's brother waiting for a call, as replacement, as that will get him an NRL debut start. Wouldn't hurt to blood him, TigPies have nothing to loose by it. Go Tiggies!!!!
Cheers and have a nice Sunday - Big Pete
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Thanks Baggy G for your wishes. Never know what is ahead. Climb every Mountain....humming.
Eels did well and have made up for many lost seasons.
We'll hang in there mate and see what develops. This is our preparation stage. Sudden death footy often brings out the best in a lot of teams, as they search for that little bit extra.
Keep well - Big Pete (heading out shortly, see you this arvo)
Submitted by EagleROCKS on
Good luck Baggy against the Storm.The Mighty Eagles will play anyone,if we play like we did yesturday, we wil win we crushed them and that was that !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
By the way if the Saints beat the dogs today, then we will play Stgeorge in the finals Big Pete!!!!!!!
Submitted by a on
Welcome back EagleROCKS who do you want to play next week Dragons or Panthers
Submitted by EagleROCKS on
Dont care who we play "A" but hope ur team makes it, so dragons to hopefully lose for u mate!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Submitted by a on
Thanks EagleROCKS hopefully Bulldogs will be able to knock over Dragons
Submitted by christine on
Eagle rocks welcome back & I just want to say to you congratulations to manly for their win against Penrith yesterday & sorry to see the boys go ( brett stewart ,matt ballin , steve matai ) they've all been a big part of manly for a long time & good luck in the finals ...
Submitted by Mary S on
Hi Eaglerocks -its been a while.
Your post at 12.42am today sounded as if you were having a very good time indeed, celebrating the convincing win by Manly -Good to have you back. Must admit, the result didn't favour my pick for my footy comp. but I made the choice based on a couple of previous ordinary performances. The boys did you and other Manly supporters proud!! Good luck for future games.
Submitted by a on
Yes Dragons lost Cowboys are in the finals go Cowboys beat Sharks next week please
Submitted by EagleROCKS on
Thanks Christine for your kind words. Yes the boys were really fired up last night, and great to send off the Prince of Brookvale and Matty Ballin.Stevie Mattai wasn"t there ,but they played highlights of his great manly careeer on the big screen. Massive crowd great atmosphere ,and a Magnificent performance.Fortress was nervous as before the game, but he was singing and dancing at the end,gosh if ever a passionate supporter his over the moon let me tell ya.
Well done "A"on the cows staying alive. I really think your boys deserve to be in the 8, and hope that put a smile on your dial!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Submitted by EagleROCKS on
Thankyou Mary S for you kind words. Yes we won and now on to the finals.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Greetings football fans
I've updated the final NRL ladder for 2017. Congrats again to our minor premiers the Melbourne Storm. A special mention for the Roosters who were 15th in 2016 and have finished 2nd this season.
And commiserations to the Dragons who just missed out on the finals. Their 28 point tally was enough to make the finals in 2016, 2015 and 2014 but not this year.
I've also updated our tipping comp. Plenty of you smart-alecs got 7 from 8 but only two of you finished the regular season with a perfect round. Congrats to The Voyeur and BigPeteBX...who did pretty darn well given the week he's had...I was worried he wasn't going to tip at all...and now he's swooshed straight past me into second place.
Note that we will continue to tip throughout the finals series before we have our top three placegetters and prizewinners in our competition.
I will have the preview for week one of the finals published as soon as I can.
All the best
Submitted by Johnny Awesome on
Good morning all,
It's spring time in the Nations Capital and a nice warm 5 degrees here in Tuggers. I must say. i'm pretty disappointed in regards to Saints and Canberra but congrats to Nth Qld for getting in. At full strength Nth Qld are as good as the rest of the top 8 excluding Melbourne who are just something special. Saints were contenders for the wooden spoon at the start of the season so in one respect they did ok overall. But gee, they finished off pretty ordinary yesterday, very depressing watching it. I didn't realise the tipping was still happeneing next week so thanks Mr Thinker for keeping the season alive. Time to make lunches before catching the bus for work. Cheers from Mr Awesome
Submitted by lillychino on
Hi
A big thank you to everyone for the pleasure and excitement I have had in the tipping competition. Congratulations to everyone for a season well played especially to Scott m, Big Petebx and The Thinker - the big winners!
See you all again next year.
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