Brisbane Broncos vs Gold Coast Titans – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium
Of the four favoured finalists this weekend, the Broncos are the shortest, and it's no surprise. During their five match winning streak the Broncos have scored 120 points while conceding just 64. No team has scored more than 16 points against them since they reversed their form, a very notable statistic given they went through a period where they were leaking points everywhere. Meanwhile the Titans have scored more than 20 points in the last six weeks only once. That was against the Knights, and even then they only scored 26. The Dragons and Bulldogs scored more points than that against the Knights, and their attacks have been spluttering along for months. What makes things even more dire for the Titans is their record at Suncorp Stadium - three wins from 19 games. In their early years the Titans gave us some outstanding performances at Suncorp in the SEQ derby, but this venue has offered them little in recent seasons. No one earns a finals victory easily, and the Broncos will need to earn this, but they'll earn it.
Verdict – Broncos by 8
Result - Broncos 44 defeated Titans 28
Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks – Saturday night – GIO Stadium
I voiced my concerns about the injury to Blake Austin and the potential impact on the Raiders prospects, but they've proven me wrong, and not for the first time. The Green Machine has racked up 96 points in two games without him, and both those wins were away from home. They were away from home in round 22 also, when they ended the Sharks 'non-losing' streak with a comfortable 30-14 victory. While everyone focused on the Sharks streak few were noticing the Raiders, who have now won 10 in a row. They are the form team in the competition...easily. Meanwhile the Sharks have fallen over, with just one victory since round 20, and that was against the team that finished second last. Rain is forecast for Canberra on Friday, and if the grim weather is a day late the Sharks might be able to grind out an ugly win through their ugly forwards. No-one outside of the Shire wants that. A win for the Raiders is a win for rugby league. Bring on the good weather and the free-flowing football. The ball will sing. The vikings will clap. The Thinker will think happy thoughts.
Verdict – Raiders by 14
Result - Sharks 16 defeated Raiders 14
Melbourne Storm vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – AAMI Park
Winning successive premierships isn't easy, and if the Cowboys manage to achieve that feat they'll be doing it the hard way. Not every team plays every other team twice during the season. The Cowboys have played the Storm twice, the Sharks twice and the Broncos twice. The only team in the top five they didn't play twice was the Raiders...and they played them in Canberra. They also only got to play the Knights once. Despite all that, they still find themselves in the top four and in pretty good shape. Their first obstacle may be the most difficult. As mentioned earlier, they've played the Storm twice already, for two losses. Their last meeting was in round 21 where they lost 16-8. That game did include one notable omission...Jonathan Thurston. Tonsils willing, Thurston plays on Saturday night. Rugby league is a team game but the Cowboys are a much better team when he's there. Those hoping for a repeat of the 2015 grand final need the Cowboys to win this - a loss and they take on the winner of the Broncos/Titans match. The Broncos and Raiders have proven that the Storm are fallible. Winterstein may need some help competing with Vunivalu under the high ball, but I'm with the visitors in a minor upset.
Verdict – Cowboys by 4
Result - Storm 16 defeated Cowboys10
Penrith Panthers vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Sunday afternoon – Allianz Stadium
The Panthers are in a rich vein of form, while the Bulldogs look like a gold mine that was abandoned in the 1930s. I still have a lingering doubt about the Panthers against the very good sides - note that they've played top four sides on six occasions this season and they haven't won any of them. Lucky for them the Bulldogs are not a top four side. Not even close. The Bulldogs have managed just 97 points in attack in their last seven games. During that same period the Panthers have scored 218. I'm stunned that the Panthers are $1.50 to win this. Stunned...gamble responsibly.
Verdict – Panthers by 22
Result - Panthers 28 defeated Bulldogs 12
Wally Lewis - finals week one (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.
- BRONCOS vs Titans
- Raiders vs SHARKS
- STORM vs Cowboys
- Panthers vs BULLDOGS
Comments
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Hell new plan coach, you run the show in place of Todd, I'll keep the bastards honest in refs and JR can be in charge of moral and half time entertainment.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
What's this spirit of the game crap? Not one ref blunder shown in it all.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Bernard Sutton single handedly ruining the game.
People go on about getting rid of the Bunker.
The Bunker itself is fine.
It's the people in it that need to be umemployed.
Submitted by Tailspin on
Yes a, Cowboys down by 4 in the holden cup.
And the Refs calls were atrocious tonight. I was embarrassed to watch it, if the NRL don't fix this problem, they are going to lose fans I reckon.
And Johnny Ray, I disagree, I think the Titans had a good chance of winning, its just the stupid refs calls that stop the momentum and turn it around.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Half time entertainment ? Yeah ! Sombrero's, Poncho's and Mustache Piñata's for everybody !!! ;-D
Submitted by Bear hug on
Hi couch potato.... cant tip as missed my selection for storm-broncos grand final. Cant argue with you on that one Mark Ashford! Well done for getting in before me ☺ After tonights game i not picking against a state capital team.... footy gods got too much invested there
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Good win by the broncos the titans have assembled a good football team hope they can keep moving upwards next year the hayne plane and hurrell are a handfull for defenses.
The loser of cowboys storm game next for us either one no matter
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Hey coach by sunday night 23 of the dancer prancer tips will be gone and just like last one on the couch you will be the first one out with bigpete your origin buddy to keep you company.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Your a dud at maths. steer clear.
After Sunday there will only be 9 possible ways that teams can meet in he Grabs Final. 3 teams on each side o the draw and 3 x 3 is 9. Then allowing for winner and runner up, there will be 18 live options left.
We started with 52.
52 minus 18 is 34.
34 options gone.
I wasn't the first on the Couch, that was Thinker. Out first week. BigPete made it to week 3 and I made it to week 4.
Broncos might have won tonight all things being equal but how would anyone ever know? It started after 2 minutes when a Try was disallowed for an imaginary knock-on. Broncos scored at least a couple o times after knocking on and having he decision reversed, or getting a penalty choosing to hurdle another player. They might have won. Maybe. But it's Titans who should have finished with 40 points, and then you have to argue that Broncos would have scored more.
People just want to see goods games.
Whoever would won last night is not clear, but, one thing is. It was totally shit coming from a fan of the game. Embarrassingly one sided and collusive effort by the reffing trio.
Titans even with injuries to main players, could have won and they were team 8.
Panthers will have to be better than the refs and Bunker.
No much doubt now, they'll have to be bloody good to win.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Disappointed that Thinker is choosing not to back me up.
I hope he doesn't have a tacit agreement with the NRL to zip it.
He will choose to lose people's respect if he does though.
Submitted by a on
Yeah the refs were stupid last night
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
See JR already better than most ideas I've seen and miles better than meatloaf at the AFL grand final.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Origin Game 1 , 2012
Minute 7 of this highlights reel.
Farah intentionally plays at the ball with his leg and dislodges it.
1/ Q- Why wasn't it a Penalty?
A- It wasn't in the rulebook , and truth be known , there is no such rulle. Refs have made this one up.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Oh yeah - forgot to paste.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-24/state-of-origin-game-1-highlights/...
Submitted by The Thinker on
Sorry Coach
I was at the track last night....then kicked on for a wee bit....now up early with the kids.....reality bleughhgh
While I won't be suggesting there was some sort of official collusion to make sure the Broncos won...decisions clearly went their way.
You've often pointed out Coach, that the NRL has every reason to make sure the Titans are a success. Why would they suddenly drop them now?
Submitted by tigerholic on
Morning Folks
I am just as shocked as everyone at the performance of the highly paid Refs. That penalty try just took my interest completely, took away any hope of the refs and bummer getting the big calls correct when it counts.
Baggy, I live West of suncorp.
If the Refs boss comes out and says that the Refs made all the correct calls then he needs to go as well, why don't we run a poll on this site who we think could do a better job in the middle.
If the "Big Marn" could run, I would vote for him.
Submitted by tigerholic on
Hey Coach
Really sorry to have to advise you but the Bulldogs are going to find their Mojo tomorrow and end your Panthers season. The dogs are due for a win, they have finals experience and they know how to get down and grind out a win, at least the Panthers made it to the finals.
Have a great weekend folks, I'm off to Toowoomba to hit BCF for some tackle in readiness for our trip to Iluka in the school holidays.
Bit of a busy few months, Fraser, Airlie Beach next week for a wedding then off to Iluka. If you haven't been to Iluka or even know where it is, look it up as it is a great place to go, it has a great pub called "Sedges Reef Hotel", which is right on the water.
Submitted by Islander on
Are you kidding me! That was the worst game of refereeing i have ever seen.
JR you said channel nine was kissing Broncos ass, looks likes the ref's wanted in on the action as well. How could have they made the right calls, when they were choking on the Bronc's balls in their mouth.
I wont be surprised if Roberts gets away with kicking the Titans player on the ground.
The only up side to this game is that the Broncos will meet either the Storm or the Cowboys in a away game in week two and get their asses whooped. Hopefully the officiating will be better.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
So paranoi d that people will think they favour he Titans so they do the opposite??
It's so crazy it's not worth wasting time thinking about.
How sad that it's only week 1 game 1.
Daryl Brohman and Gus Gould tweets have the guts to say what thy think.
Submitted by Islander on
@BigPeteBx cheers mate its good to be back. Works been kind of crazy over the last month or so.
BTW technically almost everyday is fun in the sun here on the Islands, though we all have our own definition of fun.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Tigerholic
Enjoy the trips. I do know about that pub at Iluka you speak of. There's not many like that left.
I'll be in Brunswick Heads for the first week of the school holidays.
As for the refs....they need to lift their game. If that's all we are talking about through the finals series it will be a disaster.
Submitted by a on
The refs better not ruin the Cowboys game tonight
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Continue to put in inept performances full of mistakes at work and how long do you normally last.
Usually not for that long, but regardless , the problem will always be addressed as a matter of priority.
How do you regard businesses that turn a blind eye to poor performances of their staff? That's right. Not much.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Tigerholic,
Then team has plenty who were in a 1v 4 semi, and then a Prelim only twp years ago.
They also have at least half a dozen who played on Grand Final day in Toyota Cup, so no the big league, but was in front of the same size crowd.
You think they don't have experience, I think they do.
Coming out to say they will target Cleary is music.
So many options all over the park.
Wouldn't make a differencw if he they did shut him down.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
No doubt most people had chalked up a win for the Roosters against the Panthers two years ago.
Current Panthers mob is 3 x the team of 2014, and that team made the Prelim.
Submitted by Bear hug on
The worst game of football decisions i have ever seen. And there's been a lot. Apparently the footy "gods" have lots of money on the broncos. You can stomach some decisions going wrong but when its all and very controversial you gotta question what the hell is going on? Im gob smacked most have brushed it off as broncos deserved the "win". We will never know as Titans werent given the chance. Too many momentum changing referring decisions. Its disgusting to see whats going on with this great game
Submitted by Islander on
Hey Thinker, the following post of yours from an earlier round kind of explains why the ref's had to absolutely make sure the Bronc's won last night. Correct me if I'am wrong but it looks like reason enough for me.
Posted by Thinker (rnd 24)
No show and go from me Coach. Most of my comments about the Broncos are responses to your comments about the Broncos. If you want to hear less about them you know what to do.
I will add something interesting about the Broncos though, and those who dislike them (and there are many) should take note:
I happened to meet David Gyngell last year. Who the heck is that I hear most of you say? David Gyngell is a league tragic, a Roosters tragic and until recently was the CEO of Nine Entertainment. He negotiated the free to air broadcasting agreement between the Nine Network and the NRL. He's probably most famous for getting into a punch up with Jamie Packer on a Sydney street some time ago.
I mention his name because the topic of the NRL broadcast deal came up. He's the reason the Broncos are on Thursday or Friday night nearly every round. He's been in the media business for decades and if he's not the smartest person in the media game in this country he's on the podium. He believes that the success of the Broncos contributes about 35-40% to the value of the broadcast rights package. That's right. One team in a 16 team competition is worth 35-40% of the money the competition gets from the FTA broadcaster.
The NRL competition is dependent on the broadcast deal, and the NRL gets a better broadcast deal because of the Broncos. All the teams in the NRL are dependent on funding from the NRL...and that funding comes from the broadcast deal.
So hate them if you must, but they're helping to fund your club.
Submitted by Bear hug on
Thanks Islander.... light bulb moment for me reading that. Broncos are worth too much to have them knocked out of the competition in an elimination final. Refs ensured that didnt happen! Titans never stood a chance
Submitted by Bear hug on
Thanks Islander.... light bulb moment for me reading that. Broncos are worth too much to have them knocked out of the competition in an elimination final. Refs ensured that didnt happen! Titans never stood a chance
Submitted by doggie on
I too know Iluka well. Good to see you q,landers going to gods country for holidays.
Submitted by The Thinker on
While the conspiracy theories make for interesting reading I think it's far more likely that mistakes by officials are the result of human error and degrees of incompetence.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Wish I could be that rubbish at my job and still keep it. There will be a lot more of this discussion before the week end is over. The Cowboys have a habit of getting shafted.
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Was always going to be a 13+ win to the Broncos. I'll be tipping next week from Hawaii...flying out tonight so may not see a lot of footy for the rest of this weekend and next.
Enjoy everyone!!!
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Loosen your grip bearhug the head has turned purple.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Why is it ok for a Bronco to kick out, but not ok when the shoes on the other foot? Not ok to kick a Bronco?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Watching the first 15m of game 2, and Canberra may as well be in purple instead of green, I'm starting to understand where the problem is.
The refs, onfield and in the Bunker, are horribly intimidated by the home crowd. They can't be fair because they are scared to be.
That's what home ground advantage offers. Not just the edge in penalties, but a refereeing group who are scared stiff to blow it as it is.
Panthers will need to be super because all this crap will go Bulldogs way. C'mon Panthers stick it up the refs. Stick it up the NRL. Stick it up em.
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Dynamite Dreams
The fuse has been lit????
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Dogs totally out of form, then lose their Fullback because it's a day of rest just not a Grand Final Sunday.
Out of form, then lose your Fullback.
Panthers running hot. Playing an winning with style.
Only the NRL could script such a turnaround - and who's to say they won't.
Submitted by fortresseagle on
What a game great win by the sharks I'm one of the few that tipped them and I'm on fire tipped the broncos by 16 and they won by 18.
I tipped the sharks by 1 and they won by 2 a thriller as I predicted the sharks showing great courage under fire.
Yes the refs have been pathetic all year they dudded my team. I warned everyone they are not first grade standard.
But having said that a win is a win and now the broncos move closer to another grand final well done to mark and rocket on your win.
Cowboys and panthers to come and if they both win that's a clean sweep not bad tipping from a mighty eagle.
The fortress eagle the mighty and always the greatest the mighty sea eagles!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Ok. ok.
I'm the first one out this time Canberra - Penrith. No Grand Final replay.
Don't think the winner of Panthers Dogs will fear travelling to Canberra next week. Hodgson injured but moreso Stuart has unbelievably tethered his team's playing style. Gone back to structured sets. They really didn't look like a top 8 team, let alone team number 2.
Submitted by christine on
Canberra should have done more , congratulations fortress for your win with your tip are you the only one that tipped sharks ?
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Yes your very smart fortress. Shame the Raiders have to do it the long way, could have done with a week off. Hodgeson looks like he might struggle next week though.
Submitted by fortresseagle on
One of the only ones Christine . It was close but the sharks showed guts and determination well done to them .
The ref in the cows vs storm game has been pathetic everything going for the storm one that lead to a try that was knocked on by the storm fair dinkum the nrl should get rid of these low life try hard refs and get ones that are up to standards.
Are you listening nrl the people have spoken wake up or risk us losing the plot and taking matters into our own hands bloody pathetic.
Submitted by fortresseagle on
Thanks baggy hope ur enjoying the finals .hard when are clubs arnt there but next year will come so enjoy tge rest of the finals.
Submitted by a on
We will beat the Broncos next werk
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Next week??
I thought Cowboys and Broncos were supposed to meet in the Grand Final for the next decade?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
The Dancer & The Prancer
After 3 games, 6 players have already fallen.
There remains 24 possible options.
15 that are still friendless.
3.(MEL) - CRO
4.MEL - (CRO) - Johnny Ray
5.(MEL)- COW - GaryChesterUK
6.MEL - (COW)- christine
7.(MEL) - BRI - Johnny Awesome
8.MEL - (BRI) - Mark Ashford
15.(CAN) - CRO - Baggy_Gee
16.CAN - (CRO) - Islander
17.(CAN) - COW - Rick
18.CAN - (COW)- 'a'
19.(CAN) - BRI
20.CAN - (BRI)
31.(CRO) - PAN
32.CRO - (PAN)
33.(CRO) - BUL
34.CRO - (BUL)
39.(COW) - PAN
40.COW - (PAN)
41.(COW) - BUL
42.COW - (BUL)
45.(BRI) - PAN
46.BRI - (PAN)
47.(BRI) - BUL
48.BRI - (BUL)
--------------------
1.(MEL) - CAN - Newbie from Perth ** CAN'T WIN **
2.MEL - (CAN) - Tigerholic ** CAN'T WIN **
9.(MEL) - PAN - BigPeteBx ** CAN'T WIN **
10.MEL - (PAN) ** CAN'T WIN **
11.(MEL) - BUL ** CAN'T WIN **
12.MEL - (BUL) ** CAN'T WIN **
13.(MEL) - G/C ** CAN'T WIN **
14.MEL - (G/C) ** CAN'T WIN **
21.(CAN) - PAN ** CAN'T WIN **
22.CAN - (PAN) - Coach Potato - CAN'T WIN
23.(CAN) - BUL ** CAN'T WIN **
24.CAN - (BUL) ** CAN'T WIN **
25.(CAN) - G/C ** CAN'T WIN **
26.CAN - (G/C) ** CAN'T WIN **
27.(CRO) - COW ** CAN'T WIN **
28.CRO - (COW) ** CAN'T WIN **
29.(CRO) - BRI ** CAN'T WIN **
30.CRO - (BRI) ** CAN'T WIN **
35.(CRO) - G/C ** CAN'T WIN **
36.CRO - (G/C)** CAN'T WIN **
37.(COW) - BRI - Tailspin ** CAN'T WIN **
38.COW - (BRI) - doggie ** CAN'T WIN **
43.(COW) - G/C ** CAN'T WIN **
44.COW - (G/C) ** CAN'T WIN **
49.(PAN) - G/C ** CAN'T WIN **
50.PAN - (G/C) ** CAN'T WIN **
51.(BUL) - G/C ** CAN'T WIN **
52.BUL - (G/C) ** CAN'T WIN **
Submitted by Tailspin on
Well, I thought the broncos v titans game was a shambles, and I wont say any more on that. The Sharks played really well to win, great game to watch, now the Storm v Cowboys was an awesome game, Cowboys nearly back to their best, just have to get that stupid shit out of their game and they will be in the GF, Storm, well what can you say, great defence, but I'm afraid Green called it right, the refs let the storm get away with their same shit in the ruck area again. Anyway, hope your Panthers beat the Dogs Coach, but I have this sneaky feeling in my rum belly that the dogs are going to beat them, but I hope it's just wind and I'm wrong.
Submitted by Tailspin on
Coach, number 39 for me and you.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
The Theories Series - part 2
-----------------------------------
The streak score theory - top 4
That to make top 4 you need three winning streaks totalling 10 games or more. Doesn't guarantee a place, but you need 10.
Theory 2016 confirmed.
Winning streak score
STORM 16 ....(Top 4 - 1st)
SHARKS 15.... (Top 4 - 2nd)
RAIDERS 15 ....(Top 4 - 3rd)
BRONCOS 12
COWBOYS 10 ....(Top 4- 4th)
BULLDOGS 9
PANTHERS 9
EELS 8
TITANS 7
WARRIORS 7
TIGERS 7
SEA EAGLES 7
DRAGONS 6
RABBITOHS 6
ROOSTERS 2
KNIGHTS 0
The streak score theory - bottom 4
With the same principle as the top 4, the theory is that if a team has three losing streaks in a season totalling 10 games or more they are looking at bottom 4. Doesn't guarantee bottom 4 but you need 10.
2016 theory confirmed.
Losing streak score
STORM 0
SHARKS 3
COWBOYS 3
RAIDERS 4
BULLDOGS 5
PANTHERS 6
BRONCOS 7
EELS 7
DRAGONS 7
TIGERS 8
TITANS 9
WARRIORS 9
---------------------
SEA EAGLES 12 - ...Bottom 4
ROOSTERS 13 - ...Bottom 4
SOUTHS 15 - ...Bottom 4 (13th if not for Eels points deduction)
KNIGHTS 22 - ...Bottom 4
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