Brisbane Broncos vs Gold Coast Titans – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium
Of the four favoured finalists this weekend, the Broncos are the shortest, and it's no surprise. During their five match winning streak the Broncos have scored 120 points while conceding just 64. No team has scored more than 16 points against them since they reversed their form, a very notable statistic given they went through a period where they were leaking points everywhere. Meanwhile the Titans have scored more than 20 points in the last six weeks only once. That was against the Knights, and even then they only scored 26. The Dragons and Bulldogs scored more points than that against the Knights, and their attacks have been spluttering along for months. What makes things even more dire for the Titans is their record at Suncorp Stadium - three wins from 19 games. In their early years the Titans gave us some outstanding performances at Suncorp in the SEQ derby, but this venue has offered them little in recent seasons. No one earns a finals victory easily, and the Broncos will need to earn this, but they'll earn it.
Verdict – Broncos by 8
Result - Broncos 44 defeated Titans 28
Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks – Saturday night – GIO Stadium
I voiced my concerns about the injury to Blake Austin and the potential impact on the Raiders prospects, but they've proven me wrong, and not for the first time. The Green Machine has racked up 96 points in two games without him, and both those wins were away from home. They were away from home in round 22 also, when they ended the Sharks 'non-losing' streak with a comfortable 30-14 victory. While everyone focused on the Sharks streak few were noticing the Raiders, who have now won 10 in a row. They are the form team in the competition...easily. Meanwhile the Sharks have fallen over, with just one victory since round 20, and that was against the team that finished second last. Rain is forecast for Canberra on Friday, and if the grim weather is a day late the Sharks might be able to grind out an ugly win through their ugly forwards. No-one outside of the Shire wants that. A win for the Raiders is a win for rugby league. Bring on the good weather and the free-flowing football. The ball will sing. The vikings will clap. The Thinker will think happy thoughts.
Verdict – Raiders by 14
Result - Sharks 16 defeated Raiders 14
Melbourne Storm vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – AAMI Park
Winning successive premierships isn't easy, and if the Cowboys manage to achieve that feat they'll be doing it the hard way. Not every team plays every other team twice during the season. The Cowboys have played the Storm twice, the Sharks twice and the Broncos twice. The only team in the top five they didn't play twice was the Raiders...and they played them in Canberra. They also only got to play the Knights once. Despite all that, they still find themselves in the top four and in pretty good shape. Their first obstacle may be the most difficult. As mentioned earlier, they've played the Storm twice already, for two losses. Their last meeting was in round 21 where they lost 16-8. That game did include one notable omission...Jonathan Thurston. Tonsils willing, Thurston plays on Saturday night. Rugby league is a team game but the Cowboys are a much better team when he's there. Those hoping for a repeat of the 2015 grand final need the Cowboys to win this - a loss and they take on the winner of the Broncos/Titans match. The Broncos and Raiders have proven that the Storm are fallible. Winterstein may need some help competing with Vunivalu under the high ball, but I'm with the visitors in a minor upset.
Verdict – Cowboys by 4
Result - Storm 16 defeated Cowboys10
Penrith Panthers vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Sunday afternoon – Allianz Stadium
The Panthers are in a rich vein of form, while the Bulldogs look like a gold mine that was abandoned in the 1930s. I still have a lingering doubt about the Panthers against the very good sides - note that they've played top four sides on six occasions this season and they haven't won any of them. Lucky for them the Bulldogs are not a top four side. Not even close. The Bulldogs have managed just 97 points in attack in their last seven games. During that same period the Panthers have scored 218. I'm stunned that the Panthers are $1.50 to win this. Stunned...gamble responsibly.
Verdict – Panthers by 22
Result - Panthers 28 defeated Bulldogs 12
Wally Lewis - finals week one (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.
- BRONCOS vs Titans
- Raiders vs SHARKS
- STORM vs Cowboys
- Panthers vs BULLDOGS
Comments
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Do teams ever win? Or only ever teams lose from playing poorly.
So often a team plays below their best because the opposition didn't allow them to. Today was just a perfect example of this.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
When was the last time Panthers won 7 games in a row?
Was 2003. A Premiership year.
The last time Panthers had a winning streak of 7, they won the comp.
Panthers current winning streak? 6.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Greetings football fans,
I've updated the tipping competition. Just four games, and three favourites won, but no-one managed a perfect round.
Footy Chick takes a slender lead at the top and the rest of the rhyming trio are holding the prizemoney positions.
Tailspin is some chance of taking a prize, even through he didn't get his tips in one round.
I'll have the preview page for week two of the finals published on Monday night and I'll have my previews and selections published on Wednesday.
All the best
Submitted by doggie on
evening coach. believe it or not, my wireless broadband did stop working plus I had a few mates around. way too good buddy. don't appreciate the s..t comment but anyhow will be backing the chocky soldiers from here on. not one of my mates was going for dogs so ive already copped some shit but happy to cop some more from you. panthers are on the verge of a good dynasty I feel.
Submitted by doggie on
coach. I just noticed the comment about small d. my missus wants to hunt you down with a replica of my d and jam it where you probably like it. don't mention me again in your comments coward.
Submitted by The Thinker on
So the crowd for the Panthers vs Dogs final, between two Sydney teams from rugby league heartland, drew a shade over 22,000 fans to the ground. This was the only final played in Sydney this weekend.
For the last nine Broncos home games their average crowd has been 35,000. Their lowest crowd, for a Thursday night game, still drew 3,000 more people than the Panthers vs Dogs final.
I went to the Broncos vs Bulldogs game at Suncorp - there were almost as many Dogs fans at that game as the game in Sydney today.
And there are people here trying to tell me the people of Brisbane won't turn up if they hosted a grand final.
Spare me.
p.s. Panthers were good today.
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Thanks Coach - I get your sharp drift on that.
Its not possible because should Panthers win next week they'll play Storm the week after. Thanks anyway - I only got hold of a good finals draw this weekend and penciled it in all.
Have good week - Big Pete
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Yes fortress - heaps to catch up on.
Arsenal have a few to get but depends when Wenger wants to outlay and on who. Man Utd had plenty of chances last night but buried them. Went down 2-1 to City but it has shown the depth they have and its certainly a very long season.
Have a good week at Brooky - Big Pete
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Game on comments doggie.
I'm good now.
Sorry about kicking your blue and white ass.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Origin III a dead rubber, drew a crowd of 61267.
That's 11,000 more than Suncorp's capacity.
It shows support for the game far in excess of what Suncorp would be physically capable of - and let's not think that if NSW were two up, that a dead rubber at Suncorp would get any more than 35,000.
In regard to a smaller capacity, it's hugely on the nose that Suncorp have recalculated their Grand Final prices so that they would get the same level of gate as ANZ.
A Grand Final doesn't deserve fans who have paid twice as much to be at a place filled with half as many,
Thanks Thinker.
The abnormally average Panthers summary goes back to ... Suncorp of all places ... where the score was Broncos 12, Panthers 31. Since that time, Panthers have not been behind on the scoreboard at the 80 minute whistle. That's more than good. That is the most consistent team in the league.
So I don't think it's fair to anyone, that a one word summary is used as analysis of the most comfortable win of Finals week 1.
I don't see how you get anyone's audience with such crud.
Discrimination against the team in Black has never been so rampant. Subconsciously, it must all be about the fact Panthers could soon be representing NSW against the best QLD team in the big one.
I'd be over the moon if you get to say they were good in that one.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Apologies again doggie. Heat of the battle words only.
The small d was actually referring to use of lower case instead of capital letter.
Submitted by tigerholic on
Thinker
I am forced to agree with you for the first time this year. The crowds that the Bronco's draw week in week out are commendable, but what happens if we do the unthinkable and take them off a Friday night time slot and make them play on a Saturday arvo, they are night time specialists.
Tradition says that the GF is in Sydney, not Brisbane or Melbourne, what would happen if the NRL changed the GF to either one of Townsville, Brisbane, or even in Melbourne. I am sure the atmosphere would be fantastic but with some smaller grounds a lot of fans would miss out.
I think the NRL and the game itself need to evolve with the times and the demands of the fans, although I know that TV plays a huge part in scheduling, I think the GF needs to stay with tradition and be played in Sydney.
Have a good week
Submitted by Coach Potato on
James Roberts is set to miss next week because of his boot into a Titan.
Small justice that the refs refused to even penalise on the field.
Titans lost their Plane, now Broncos have lost their Jet.
Submitted by Doggie on
Apology accepted coach. Panthers were very good and have a great chance of going all the way.
Submitted by The Thinker on
I actually agree with the argument that the grand final should stay in Sydney because of tradition. I'm with you there...and Wayne Bennett. Both of us would be advantaged by a Brisbane grand final...and both of us are against the idea....BUT....
If the NRL decide to take a grand final away from Sydney....Brisbane deserves to get one.
Anyone arguing Brisbane shouldn't get the grand final because people won't support it are just plain wrong. Stick to the tradition argument.
The Broncos have had one Sunday afternoon game in Brisbane in the last two years. One. I went to it. It was against the team that finished second last that season.
40,000 people turned up.
Submitted by tigerholic on
Yes Thinker
No one can argue the stats of fans packing into Suncorp, huge money spinner. I didn't go to any games this year, could have gone to the Titans/Tigers but was working, the cost to take 4 kids and the Mrs along is huge, how do we argue to get the overall cost of going to the footy down.
Can the NRL introduce a membership that entitles members to big discounted tickets and food and drinks, the NRL could throw in some cash to off set the cost, similar to being a member of an NRL club, I'm sure they can afford it after all they only give the minor premiers $100,000 compered to the AFL who give 5 or 6 times that amount.
Thanks for another great comp this year, what are we going to do in the off season without the footy 5 days a week? Can't talk to the Missus for that long:)
Submitted by The Thinker on
Tiger,
You raise a very valid point. Most league fans aren't flushed with funds. The cost of going to the game, compared to watching it for free at home, is a big issue.
Scheduling is another issue. My kids are still too young to go to a game at night. So they haven't been to a game at Suncorp this season. They want to, but the scheduling means they can't.
I realise the broadcasting deal supports the competition, and without night time fixtures the deal is smaller...but you also want kids going to the football.
It's not easy.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Coach,
I'm just giving you a gentle nudge about the Panthers. Don't take it personally.
They're a great team to watch....Raiders vs Panthers should be quite a spectacle.
Submitted by Anonymous on
The problem with hosting a game in Qld is the ground capacity restrictions, if they get 75% and above for a game during the year or a final then how do you fit all the other fans from interstate. The Grandfinal should just stay in Sydney and leave it at that. I love tradition.
Submitted by Johnny Awesome on
The problem with hosting a game in Qld is the ground capacity restrictions, if they get 75% and above for a game during the year or a final then how do you fit all the other fans from interstate. The Grandfinal should just stay in Sydney and leave it at that. I love tradition. Sorry I thought I was logged in on the anonymous comment.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
And thanks from anyone that was interested that doggie has a big D.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Canberra play Sharks in a Suncorp GF you would just hate to see empty spaces.
Thinker says trust us, but will trust be broken. Only giving them a chance will tell. It does feel like a risk though.
As you say, the stadium policy for week 1 backfired big time for two Sydney teams. Suncorp with two non- Qld teams? Will have to see.
I'm also nudging you in the ribs to comment more about a game that produced 4 tries all contending for try of the year. No doubt one of them wins.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Doggie's wife catch up with you hey Coach?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Yeah. I said no thanks I already had a door stop.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
The Dancer And The Prancer
Amazingly there are still 7 winning chances, and noone wants them yet. Ice cool strategy from seven others.
3.(MEL) - CRO
4.MEL - (CRO) - Johnny Ray
5.(MEL)- COW - GaryChesterUK
6.MEL - (COW)- christine
7.(MEL) - BRI - Johnny Awesome
8.MEL - (BRI) - Mark Ashford
15.(CAN) - CRO - Baggy_Gee
16.CAN - (CRO) - Islander
17.(CAN) - COW - Rick
18.CAN - (COW)- 'a'
19.(CAN) - BRI
20.CAN - (BRI)
31.(CRO) - PAN
32.CRO - (PAN)
39.(COW) - PAN - The Thinker
40.COW - (PAN)
45.(BRI) - PAN - Rocket Ryan
46.BRI - (PAN)
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I wonder what case Roberts will put forward to say be didn't kick anyone because challenging the judiciary means if he guilty charge stands, he misses the Prelim as well - if they make it that far.
Tells me the Broncos are absolutely desperate.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
.. especially with a Bronco judiciary record of 2 from 15.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Not sure how it could possibly be not guilty.
Then again , not sure how the review panel missed Parker's head butt.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Bloody team full of grubs.
Submitted by The Thinker on
2 from 15....that's a lousy record for a team the NRL are trying to help
Submitted by Coach Potato on
It's not a friggin coin toss. A game of two-up where 50/50 is the expected probability. Tells more the story of a team that have done plenty of unforgiveables over the years.
Submitted by a on
I think the grand final should be held in the higher team home is
Submitted by Coach Potato on
You mean unless the top team is Penrith because as we all know, they should never be allowed to play a final at their home ground ?
Submitted by The Thinker on
I didn't say it was...but 2 from 15 is a low success rate...which is exactly what you said earlier.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
What some perceive as favours given to the Broncos are much more to do with decades of the Club's powerbrokers and coach intimidating the league into complying with their demands on the field and off.
Submitted by The Thinker on
My mistake. I thought I should take my tinfoil hat off...but it just needed a quick adjustment.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Always go with your first thought.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Thinker you say you missed it.
If you or anyone else want to see round 26 again, here it is.
If you only get to watch the first half, you've spent 40 minutes well.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YUUJABR_h3s
Submitted by Coach Potato on
In this day and age, with lots of money wagered on each game, what is the bloody go with teams that are not transperant with their team injury lists?
Kerrod Holland was named at Centre all of last week, with only the Dogs and those with the keen eye, knowing all along, he was busted as. Didnt Gai Waterhouse and those in the know get hauled over the coals for not disclosing that More Joyous was injured? Even when Holland didn't run out on the field, nothing was said about the change by commentators or other media. Only that Morris had moved to fullback to replace Hopoate. You would think that Fine Cotton wool was being offered to pull over people's eyes and we couldn't tell the difference.
Now the Raiders are set to name Hodgson, when we all saw that he's a busted unit. But exactly why is he a busted unit? severe sprain/ ligament damage, fracture, dislocation, we don't know and why not?
Why do fans and media have no ability to know the extent of the injury? If he was never any chance of playing , is then named to p!ay, and people on face value in good faith bet money on Canberra, then haven't they been duped if he pulls out on game day? Would it not be like taking bets on Winx to win the Queen Elizabeth, with only the connections, and those smelling a rat, knowing she wouldn't be a starter? Where is the transparency with injuries and why are clubs not obligated to disclose the detail? Canberra also have Austin out with an undisclosed hand injury. Anyone who knows hand injuries though knows , it's either minutes or months. If it's a dislocation you don't even miss five minutes of game time putting it back in, and taping it up. If it's a fracture then those small bones take months to knit. So are you gonna name Austin too Raiders? I hope so.
Because to me, it's paramount to cheaters trying to prosper.
And we all know that so far this finals series, those ones havent.
Submitted by Doggie on
Corey Parker could be a witness for Roberts. He could tell the judiciary that kicking out is fine.
Submitted by Doggie on
Damn you Baggy Gee, were not married and she will see that comment and start to put some pressure on for a ring on her finger. Lol.
Submitted by fortresseagle on
hey doggy its good to know ur hung like a horse mate my lady has the same problem with me mate lol...............................great finals footy comming up will have my tips comming up soon very hard to pick again good luck to all .
coach totaly agree on the players injurys, they must think were mugs both austin and hodgson wont play, and even if they do the sharks will target them and rightfully so.
big pete what crackin mate hope iots dry up ur way been hearing lots of rain up your way,been cool down hear but you can feel that spring is kicking in not long befopre the heat and the hotties on the beach cant ait mate.
fortress eagle of the mighty sea eagles!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Submitted by Coach Potato on
http://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/teams/raiders/raiders-ho...
Ok so Canberra has fessed up.
Austin has a broken hand which happened 20 days ago.
Hodgson has torn ankle ligaments from 3 days ago.
Both are down to play in 4 days time.
What a huge risk to play either or both of them.
What a huge compliment to Penrith for them to think they can't win without them.
Sounds a lot like they're buggered if they do, and buggered if they dont. The choice is theirs.
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Evenin Fortress.
We did have rain which eased up over the weekend for us, but more predicted tomorrow on. Waters/rivers/dams had risen around the district.
Canberra doesn't sound like being the best place to be this weekend. Might be Sharks day - wet and watery.
Doggie didnt mention his Oberon days to Coach about how the small d came about. It is bloody freezin there in Winter. He went North to be with the brumbies. Dont know if Doggie surfs, but if he does, he'd be doin a bit of hangin - like Fortress. Instead, Doggie has joined us in the grandstand for the remainder of the season.
Lucky you guys and the beach hotties. We just get the shopping centre short shorts treatment. Keep well - Big Pete.
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Oops Fortress - Sharks dont play this week, but have a Sharks Day at Cronulla Beach. Wet and Wild. Enjoy the rest of the week.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
.. unless Fortress has worked out Raiders are playing Sharks in the big one? Because yhat's the only way they will meet.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/rugby-league/canberra-raiders/dday-appro...
It's D-Day in Canberra today.
Ii wonder if the true test is if Austin can use two hands to do the Viking Clap?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Pretty sure you're on the wrong team Blake?
Sorry to tell you, there wouldn't be a place for you in this squad by a long shot.You failed weekly in he Panthers colours. What choice did they have?
http://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/blake-austin-exclusive-c...
Submitted by Coach Potato on
It's hardly the case that you showed yourself out the door.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Oh yeah. D-day for Broncos too.
I predict Roberts to get off, then go straight on a bender to celebrate.
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