Brisbane Broncos vs Gold Coast Titans – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium
Of the four favoured finalists this weekend, the Broncos are the shortest, and it's no surprise. During their five match winning streak the Broncos have scored 120 points while conceding just 64. No team has scored more than 16 points against them since they reversed their form, a very notable statistic given they went through a period where they were leaking points everywhere. Meanwhile the Titans have scored more than 20 points in the last six weeks only once. That was against the Knights, and even then they only scored 26. The Dragons and Bulldogs scored more points than that against the Knights, and their attacks have been spluttering along for months. What makes things even more dire for the Titans is their record at Suncorp Stadium - three wins from 19 games. In their early years the Titans gave us some outstanding performances at Suncorp in the SEQ derby, but this venue has offered them little in recent seasons. No one earns a finals victory easily, and the Broncos will need to earn this, but they'll earn it.
Verdict – Broncos by 8
Result - Broncos 44 defeated Titans 28
Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks – Saturday night – GIO Stadium
I voiced my concerns about the injury to Blake Austin and the potential impact on the Raiders prospects, but they've proven me wrong, and not for the first time. The Green Machine has racked up 96 points in two games without him, and both those wins were away from home. They were away from home in round 22 also, when they ended the Sharks 'non-losing' streak with a comfortable 30-14 victory. While everyone focused on the Sharks streak few were noticing the Raiders, who have now won 10 in a row. They are the form team in the competition...easily. Meanwhile the Sharks have fallen over, with just one victory since round 20, and that was against the team that finished second last. Rain is forecast for Canberra on Friday, and if the grim weather is a day late the Sharks might be able to grind out an ugly win through their ugly forwards. No-one outside of the Shire wants that. A win for the Raiders is a win for rugby league. Bring on the good weather and the free-flowing football. The ball will sing. The vikings will clap. The Thinker will think happy thoughts.
Verdict – Raiders by 14
Result - Sharks 16 defeated Raiders 14
Melbourne Storm vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – AAMI Park
Winning successive premierships isn't easy, and if the Cowboys manage to achieve that feat they'll be doing it the hard way. Not every team plays every other team twice during the season. The Cowboys have played the Storm twice, the Sharks twice and the Broncos twice. The only team in the top five they didn't play twice was the Raiders...and they played them in Canberra. They also only got to play the Knights once. Despite all that, they still find themselves in the top four and in pretty good shape. Their first obstacle may be the most difficult. As mentioned earlier, they've played the Storm twice already, for two losses. Their last meeting was in round 21 where they lost 16-8. That game did include one notable omission...Jonathan Thurston. Tonsils willing, Thurston plays on Saturday night. Rugby league is a team game but the Cowboys are a much better team when he's there. Those hoping for a repeat of the 2015 grand final need the Cowboys to win this - a loss and they take on the winner of the Broncos/Titans match. The Broncos and Raiders have proven that the Storm are fallible. Winterstein may need some help competing with Vunivalu under the high ball, but I'm with the visitors in a minor upset.
Verdict – Cowboys by 4
Result - Storm 16 defeated Cowboys10
Penrith Panthers vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Sunday afternoon – Allianz Stadium
The Panthers are in a rich vein of form, while the Bulldogs look like a gold mine that was abandoned in the 1930s. I still have a lingering doubt about the Panthers against the very good sides - note that they've played top four sides on six occasions this season and they haven't won any of them. Lucky for them the Bulldogs are not a top four side. Not even close. The Bulldogs have managed just 97 points in attack in their last seven games. During that same period the Panthers have scored 218. I'm stunned that the Panthers are $1.50 to win this. Stunned...gamble responsibly.
Verdict – Panthers by 22
Result - Panthers 28 defeated Bulldogs 12
Wally Lewis - finals week one (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.
- BRONCOS vs Titans
- Raiders vs SHARKS
- STORM vs Cowboys
- Panthers vs BULLDOGS
Comments
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Tailspin, you already took 37.
Only one tip allowed.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Round 13 , 2011, in what was to be Ivan Cleary's last year at the Warriors, he introduced a 20 year old halfback Shaun Johnson, who not only held his own, he starred, and he took his team to the Finals.
After turning age 21 on finals Eve, took went on to lead his team to a Grand Final.
Round 13, 2016 in his first year at the Panthers, Anthony Griffin introduced an 18 year old halfback , Nathan Cleary, who not only held his own, he starred, and he took his team to the Finals.
What he and his team achieves from here, the pages have not yet been written.
There is a handy amount of symmetry in the two stories though.
He's still 18 through til November. When he turns 19 we can look back on how that chapter read.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Again I know Thinker not one for conspiracy theories but considering that Sydney's biggest game of the year so far has been all Sydney AFl match that was on this weekend at ANZ, it makes you wonder what could NRL do this year to beat that especially if Giants go on to win this year. Sharks winning their first grand final in fifty years as a club with retiring NSW captain Paul Gallen skippering the side to maiden premiership in his last ever game for them, yeah that might do it ! I think we should all expect alot more dubious calls from ref's in the week's ahead ... :-)
Submitted by Coach Potato on
These are the only teams who truly can get a home Prelim
Roosters - Allianz
Souths, Bulldogs - ANZ
Broncos - Suncorp
Cowboys - 1300Smi!es
Storm - AAMI
Warriors - Mt Smart
With the exception of the Warriors , interestingly coincides with teams who have progressed through to October in recent years.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
JR, Sharks in their 50th, playing Panthers in their 50th.
Any good NRL? His about you bloody organise it?
Submitted by Tailspin on
Yeh I know Coach, I'm just messin with ya.
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Broncos will now have to take another queenslamd side out if we are to progress cowboys not good enough last night.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
That will be nice Rocket, Week 2 of the finals, 66% of the teams from QLD have knocked each other out. Would have been fun if the Titans had got up Friday night then.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Hey there Coach
Earlier this year I pointed out that certain teams do more traveling than others. Here is an example:
The Bulldogs only left Sydney six times all season (one of those was a home game they took to New Zealand - which they get a novelty cheque for doing). So 18 of 24 matches were in Sydney, and 15 of those 18 were at ANZ or Belmore.
The Cowboys played 11 games at home this season...of 24.
So the Bulldogs get to play 75% of their games in their home town while the Cowboys play 45%. If those teams make the grand final...the Bulldogs play at home again.
So when I pointed this out a while ago you basically said its no big deal...they're all big boys who should just suck it up. You even posted a video about how comfortable those Tiger flights are for those 120kg forwards at the Storm.
So that's no big deal, but if Penrith have to take a game 20 minutes up the road in a bus it's the biggest crime in sport.
Penrith are big boys too.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Shit!??
A Queenslander saying they weren't the better team.
Dominance is gone and taken friend Arrogance with it.
Submitted by a on
Nah Cowboys will win next week
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Not sure if you understand.
There's many home grounds within metro Sydney.
Geographically not an especially large area.
It's not about travelling time.
Visitors are meant to feel like they are in enemy territory, not made to feel at home.
If you fail to understand this, you may just need to strike another one up.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
If Panthers win through to week 2, they will travel to Canberra and then following week to Melbourne.
The team has vowed to play anyone, anywhere, anytime - so that much is covered.
Weeks 2 and 3, Panthers would not be the lower team so rightly play away. Week 1 we should rightfully be playing on home soil. For the visitor, that rightfully should be enemy territory. Not the opposite.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Go back in time only a week, read carefully and know that ANZ was first choice for this game, Bulldogs home ground.
If it was available, it would have been used.
Even Suncorp was thrown up as an alternative.
What about fucking Pepper you assholes.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
....
http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/canterbury-bulldogs/canterbury-bulldo...
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Where are you doggie?
Hope you're not going to be like one cowardly Bronco who only speaks after the game - if his team wins.
Submitted by doggie on
Just logged on coach. Hoping for a good game with no controversy. Doubt that will happen. Im not that confident but what the hell, doggies to win. Where is the game played at, I haven't got a clue. Good luck to your boys coach and if they knock out my team im going for yours. Cheers.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
No worries doggie. Good luck to the Dogs.
Playing at the SFS - Allianz.
Should be a good game if it's allowed to be.
Dogs are saying they won't play in the spirit.
Reynolds and two Morris"s set to milk two penalties each.
Cheatin pricks.
Terry Lamb's team also still wants an Ellery Hanley and get away with it. We'll see.
Anyway they turned ANZ into an AFL field this week, so not enough time to change it back. Pretty amazing how they do it. If you haven't seen it, this is what happens.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mbBJlFp6q0
Panthers are so much tougher than they used to be.
They also have payback for 2 yrs ago.
Determined to win wherever the NRL says.
Sharks were super to overcome intimidated refs in Canberra.
Will see how Penrith go playing the Home Final Away - Part II.
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Anyone anytime ANYWHERE stop whinging coach you haven't lost yet
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Expect klemmer to have a big game he could be hard to handle
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Getting a little nervous coachy boy????
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Klemmer, 15 hit ups, 178 m's, 35 tackles and 4 penalties. Big game all right, get under his skin and watch as James Graham skins him alive in public afterwards. Good player, not much of the thinking stuff.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Panthers were $1.50....now $1.65
I still think they're absolute specials....what am I missing?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
You"re missing that people lose on the punt.
Submitted by doggie on
dogs looking good coach. long way to go but.
Submitted by doggie on
whos cheating now coach. deliberately puts his hand in touch. should have been dogs ball.
Submitted by doggie on
bit quiet coach
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Desperate for a friend doggie.
Interesting move by Hasler's to name all forwards on the bench on a sunny September day. Will be less interesting and more dud strategy when Panthers start opening em up.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
That pass from the eighteen year old.
Talk about peach.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Woof woof to the one with the small d.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Talk dog shit
Submitted by Coach Potato on
The Dogs Of Surrender.
Iyour nternet stopped working ?
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Nice panther dive at the 73 minute. That was blatantly obvious, nearly as good as Judas Lyon.
Submitted by fortresseagle on
Brilliant performance by ur mob coach as I said in my tips and got I right again there desire and attack will be too good stunning attack to burn the dogs .
Well folks I picked 3/4 and the cowboys played well in there loss .
Week 2 very interesting as the pressure starts to mount who will move on who will bow out stay tuned to the one and only fortresses tips bought to you by the mighty sea eagles .
Fortress eagle when only the best will do !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
You got anything to say about being wrong big time Rocket?
Submitted by a on
Raiders vs Panthers next week
Submitted by Coach Potato on
My guess is more piffle from old Sprocket.
Tigerholic, what am I supposed to do with your condolences?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
NRL, only a half full SFS.
Surely a jam packed Pepper Stadium is a far better look.
Please have a look at that in the off season . We won regardless but so unfair.
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
I agree coach, pepper would have been rocking.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
The Dancer And The Prancer
18 possible outcomes left.
9 still friendless.
Surely they won't last long - although I thought that most of this week.
3.(MEL) - CRO
4.MEL - (CRO) - Johnny Ray
5.(MEL)- COW - GaryChesterUK
6.MEL - (COW)- christine
7.(MEL) - BRI - Johnny Awesome
8.MEL - (BRI) - Mark Ashford
15.(CAN) - CRO - Baggy_Gee
16.CAN - (CRO) - Islander
17.(CAN) - COW - Rick
18.CAN - (COW)- 'a'
19.(CAN) - BRI
20.CAN - (BRI)
31.(CRO) - PAN
32.CRO - (PAN)
39.(COW) - PAN
40.COW - (PAN)
45.(BRI) - PAN
46.BRI - (PAN)
Submitted by tigerholic on
Well done to the Panthers, played a fantastic game. Bulldogs were f-----n hopeless.
Good luck next week Coachy boy, Raiders and Panthers will be a great match. I'm just dirty that I lost the tip, was looking to get 3/4, very impressed with the Panthers , no blunders from the refs that would have changed the game. When will the Panthers come across the Broncos, in the current form of the Panthers, Bronco's will need to improve a lot.
Interesting two games next week. Have a great week folks.
Tigerholic
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Hey Reynolds, you're one tame bully.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
The only chance of Panthers Broncos / Panthers Cowboys is the Grand Final. Either would be a Dream. Would be Dynamite.
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Evenin Coach.
I noticed with yours of today at 7.14pm in The Dancer and The Prancer and in a previous post you said my selection cant win.
I did take No 9 and had it allocated to me. I seem to think that both Melb and Panthers won in Finals Week 1 and I am not showing on your lists or am I interpreting your evaluations differently.
Please check for me.
Big Pete
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
G'day Fortress - hope u r well mate.
Yes, I know, I haven't heard, but that is your call (Uncle Sam Eagle).
We'll be in the mix next season and watch this season continue on its merry note. I hope history is made and there is a change.
Cheers and keep well
Big Pete
Submitted by fortresseagle on
Hey big Pete how's it been for you yeah very hard not seeing the mighty eagles playing in the finals.
We will be there next year mate.
Arsenal looking good in the epl new signings going great guns should be interesting comp this year.
Still need your e-mail address mate will ask thinker so we chat over the summer heaps to chat about keep well mate chat soon .
Eagle rocks where are you mate catch up soon maybe go for a dip when it starts to warm up .
Great evening to all .
Submitted by Coach Potato on
No worries Pete.
If the NRL decides that Panther Melbourne are allowed to meet in both the Prelim and also the Grand Final , I'll le you know.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Like a said half-way through the game, why would Hasler go in with no backs on the bench. Must have thought he could belt Panthers out of it. No doubt it worked for a while. A good half hour. Didn't show as an 80 minute strategy though. Injuries to Morris, and then Reynolds, putting Jackson out to centre as your only alternative. Big question marks over that game plan.
And I told you that Kerrod Holland was busted from Rnd 26.
I looked all week for the Dogs to say boo about it but nohing.
Speaking of busted, if Blake can't play... Te Maire Martin. You're in. Centre is not your first position, but I remember you did a nice job against the Broncos out there.
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Coach even you would agree the bulldogs were sub standard. I like a lot of punters expected much more a des hasler spray at half time had no impact they were finished and ended up a rabble.
I'm going to change tactics and get on the pennys to outgun the raiders next week.
My dancer tip is now 45 i dont want to ever think 46 could happen.
Submitted by The Thinker on
I'll have number 39 thanks Coach
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