Brisbane Broncos vs Gold Coast Titans – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium

Of the four favoured finalists this weekend, the Broncos are the shortest, and it's no surprise. During their five match winning streak the Broncos have scored 120 points while conceding just 64. No team has scored more than 16 points against them since they reversed their form, a very notable statistic given they went through a period where they were leaking points everywhere. Meanwhile the Titans have scored more than 20 points in the last six weeks only once. That was against the Knights, and even then they only scored 26. The Dragons and Bulldogs scored more points than that against the Knights, and their attacks have been spluttering along for months. What makes things even more dire for the Titans is their record at Suncorp Stadium - three wins from 19 games. In their early years the Titans gave us some outstanding performances at Suncorp in the SEQ derby, but this venue has offered them little in recent seasons. No one earns a finals victory easily, and the Broncos will need to earn this, but they'll earn it.

Verdict – Broncos by 8

Result - Broncos 44 defeated Titans 28

Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks – Saturday night – GIO Stadium

I voiced my concerns about the injury to Blake Austin and the potential impact on the Raiders prospects, but they've proven me wrong, and not for the first time. The Green Machine has racked up 96 points in two games without him, and both those wins were away from home. They were away from home in round 22 also, when they ended the Sharks 'non-losing' streak with a comfortable 30-14 victory. While everyone focused on the Sharks streak few were noticing the Raiders, who have now won 10 in a row. They are the form team in the competition...easily. Meanwhile the Sharks have fallen over, with just one victory since round 20, and that was against the team that finished second last. Rain is forecast for Canberra on Friday, and if the grim weather is a day late the Sharks might be able to grind out an ugly win through their ugly forwards. No-one outside of the Shire wants that. A win for the Raiders is a win for rugby league. Bring on the good weather and the free-flowing football. The ball will sing. The vikings will clap. The Thinker will think happy thoughts.

Verdict – Raiders by 14

Result - Sharks 16 defeated Raiders 14

Melbourne Storm vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – AAMI Park

Winning successive premierships isn't easy, and if the Cowboys manage to achieve that feat they'll be doing it the hard way. Not every team plays every other team twice during the season. The Cowboys have played the Storm twice, the Sharks twice and the Broncos twice. The only team in the top five they didn't play twice was the Raiders...and they played them in Canberra. They also only got to play the Knights once. Despite all that, they still find themselves in the top four and in pretty good shape. Their first obstacle may be the most difficult. As mentioned earlier, they've played the Storm twice already, for two losses. Their last meeting was in round 21 where they lost 16-8. That game did include one notable omission...Jonathan Thurston. Tonsils willing, Thurston plays on Saturday night. Rugby league is a team game but the Cowboys are a much better team when he's there. Those hoping for a repeat of the 2015 grand final need the Cowboys to win this - a loss and they take on the winner of the Broncos/Titans match. The Broncos and Raiders have proven that the Storm are fallible. Winterstein may need some help competing with Vunivalu under the high ball, but I'm with the visitors in a minor upset.

Verdict – Cowboys by 4

Result - Storm 16 defeated Cowboys10

Penrith Panthers vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Sunday afternoon – Allianz Stadium

The Panthers are in a rich vein of form, while the Bulldogs look like a gold mine that was abandoned in the 1930s. I still have a lingering doubt about the Panthers against the very good sides - note that they've played top four sides on six occasions this season and they haven't won any of them. Lucky for them the Bulldogs are not a top four side. Not even close. The Bulldogs have managed just 97 points in attack in their last seven games. During that same period the Panthers have scored 218. I'm stunned that the Panthers are $1.50 to win this. Stunned...gamble responsibly.

Verdict – Panthers by 22

Result - Panthers 28 defeated Bulldogs 12

Wally Lewis - finals week one (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

• BRONCOS vs Titans
• Raiders vs SHARKS
• STORM vs Cowboys
• Panthers vs BULLDOGS