Round twenty one selections

Sydney Roosters vs Brisbane Broncos – Thursday night – Allianz Stadium

The Roosters won the last three minor premierships in a row, and they've won just three games this season. Their last win was way back in round 13, in atrocious conditions over the Tigers. Other than that they've beaten the team running last and the team running thirteenth. They're not just a shadow of the team they were in seasons past, they're a shadow of a shadow. Dark days indeed. Despite that, you've got to give them a chance on recent form. The Bulldogs only beat them by four points, and the Bulldogs beat the Broncos by 26. The Storm beat them in Melbourne by 16 points, but the Storm beat the Broncos in Brisbane by 42 points. And a 12 point loss to the Sharks isn't a disgrace either. The Broncos, with just two wins from their last eight games, are looking a little shadowy themselves. Thaiday, McGuire, Kahu and Reed are unavailable - that's (technically) four internationals, but the return of Gillett is an important one. I'm far from confident, but we've seen the Broncos with their backs to the wall many times over the years. More often than not, they fight back and find a way. If Waerea-Hargreaves was playing I'd be tipping the Chickens...but he isn't...so I won't.

Verdict – Broncos by 4

Result - Roosters 32 defeated Broncos 16

Canterbury Bulldogs vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Friday night – ANZ Stadium

These sides met in round 14 where the Bulldogs prevailed 34-16, and the line-ups on Friday night are much the same as they were back then. The Dragons have done little to show me they've improved. Since round 14 they've beaten a reserve grade Storm outfit and the Knights, but they've been dismantled on every other occasion. The Bulldogs were dismantled last week, but the team that dismantled them would have dismantled everybody. More on that later. With a loss here the Dragons can all but plan their trip to Thailand. I can't say the Dragons have been great in 2016, but the effort was there. Effort won't be enough on Friday night. Woof Woof.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 16

Result - Bulldogs 13 defeated Dragons 10

New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday afternoon – Mt Smart Stadium

Here's something you may not have noticed. The Warriors have lost their last three away games in golden point extra time to the Raiders in Canberra, the Sea Eagles in Perth and the Sharks in Sydney. They'll be happy they're back at Mt Smart where they usually produce their best, including their last two performances at home where they soundly defeated two top eight sides in the Titans and the Broncos. The Panthers are a top eight side currently - a win here and they probably move to seventh, while a loss sees them swapping places with the Warriors. A loss for the Warriors and they could quite easily drop to 11th. These sides played in Christchurch in round 10 where the Warriors started well but were no match for the Panthers in the end. The Warriors record in New Zealand away from Mt Smart is comically bad, so this is more like a real home game for them. That said, if the Panthers hold their form from last week they should prevail again. There are many ways to beat the Warriors (and sometimes they beat themselves). I imagine Nathan Cleary has had a chat to his Dad about a few of those ways.

Verdict – Panthers by 1

Result - Warriors 20 defeated Panthers 16

Parramatta Eels vs Wests Tigers – Saturday night – ANZ Stadium

When you are right 70% of the time you are going to be wrong 30% of the time, and I have a confession to make - I was wrong about Aaron Woods. I had him labelled as a bit of a pudding, probably because he looks like Baloo from The Jungle Book. This season he's racked up triple figures in metres gained every time he has played (including three Origins), and he's doing it the hard way. Three times this season he's run for more than 200 metres, and he was near his best with 183 metres last week. It's on the back of that effort, and the efforts of the lessor known supporting players in the Tigers pack, that the kids in the Tigers backline can perform. The Tigers are unlikely to make the top eight but it's not impossible. The Eels are done. Effort, and the flickering hope of finals football, will get the Tigers home.

Verdict – Tigers by 8

Result - Tigers 23 defeated Eels 8

North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm – Saturday night – 1300SMILES Stadium

While there was plenty of chatter here about the Panthers last week, the Panthers General Manager wrote an article about the Cowboys. Phil Gould described the Cowboys demolition of the Bulldogs as easily the best performance of the season. He described their first half performance as perfect football. That's high praise, and while they take to the field without their most important player they are yet to lose at home all season. In a way the absence of Thurston takes some of the pressure off them in this game. If he were there, and the Storm won, it would be quite a blow. Without him they know they have an ace up their sleeve if these two meet again in the finals (and that's looking likely). It's not often I focus on the wingers, and with good reason, but this game may be the exception that proves the rule. Winterstein isn't the tallest winger in the world and I expect Cooper Cronk to try and isolate him under the high ball. On the other flank Javen Bowen will need to contain Koroibete. The two Fijian wingers have notched up 27 tries for the Storm this season. In a game I'm finding difficult to split their finishing power could be the difference.

Verdict – Storm by 7

Result - Storm 16 defeated Cowboys 8

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday afternoon – ANZ Stadium

The Bunnies have named a cast of thousands on the bench which should boost the attendance figures at Tumbleweed Stadium this weekend. The red and green have all but given up, and those left in the crowd are rusted-ons that are there through thick and thin. They look thin. The Raiders have the top four in their sights and they deserve a finals berth this season. Well done Ricky Stuart...you cranky b*stard.

Verdict – Raiders by 18

Result - Raiders 54 defeated Rabbitohs 4

Manly Sea Eagles vs Newcastle Knights – Sunday afternoon – Brookvale Oval

Talking about the Knights makes me sad. I simply don't want to talk about it, instead I'll close my eyes and pretend it's 1997.

Verdict – Sea Eagles by 32

Result - Sea Eagles 36 defeated Knights 16

Gold Coast Titans vs Cronulla Sharks – Monday night – Cbus Super Stadium

Irrational this may be, but it wouldn't hurt the Sharks to lose a game before the finals series. The Titans are a sneaky hope here, but I have to remind myself of their clash in round six when the Sharks lost both Maloney and Lewis early in the game, and Andrew Fifita in the second half...and they still found a way to win. Finding a way to win has been their thing since round three. Greg Bird returns against his old side, but he's the sort of goofball that will try too hard, overplay his hand, and give away silly penalties. Someone will beat the Sharks eventually, but we may have to wait until they take on a team with a bigger boat.

Verdict – Sharks by 4

Result - Titans 18 drew with Sharks 18

Wally Lewis - round twenty-one selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

  • Roosters vs BRONCOS
  • BULLDOGS vs Dragons
  • Warriors vs PANTHERS
  • Eels vs TIGERS
  • Cowboys vs STORM
  • Rabbitohs vs RAIDERS
  • SEA EAGLES vs Knights
  • Titans vs SHARKS

1997 ARL Grand Final (Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles)

Comments

St.George Illawarra Dragonsfan4ever's picture

Uh Thinker, you made a mistake with Nik's results for Round 21, he got 4/8 not 5/8.

Cheers!!!!!!!!!!!

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