Round twenty one selections

Sydney Roosters vs Brisbane Broncos – Thursday night – Allianz Stadium

The Roosters won the last three minor premierships in a row, and they've won just three games this season. Their last win was way back in round 13, in atrocious conditions over the Tigers. Other than that they've beaten the team running last and the team running thirteenth. They're not just a shadow of the team they were in seasons past, they're a shadow of a shadow. Dark days indeed. Despite that, you've got to give them a chance on recent form. The Bulldogs only beat them by four points, and the Bulldogs beat the Broncos by 26. The Storm beat them in Melbourne by 16 points, but the Storm beat the Broncos in Brisbane by 42 points. And a 12 point loss to the Sharks isn't a disgrace either. The Broncos, with just two wins from their last eight games, are looking a little shadowy themselves. Thaiday, McGuire, Kahu and Reed are unavailable - that's (technically) four internationals, but the return of Gillett is an important one. I'm far from confident, but we've seen the Broncos with their backs to the wall many times over the years. More often than not, they fight back and find a way. If Waerea-Hargreaves was playing I'd be tipping the Chickens...but he isn't...so I won't.

Verdict – Broncos by 4

Result - Roosters 32 defeated Broncos 16

Canterbury Bulldogs vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Friday night – ANZ Stadium

These sides met in round 14 where the Bulldogs prevailed 34-16, and the line-ups on Friday night are much the same as they were back then. The Dragons have done little to show me they've improved. Since round 14 they've beaten a reserve grade Storm outfit and the Knights, but they've been dismantled on every other occasion. The Bulldogs were dismantled last week, but the team that dismantled them would have dismantled everybody. More on that later. With a loss here the Dragons can all but plan their trip to Thailand. I can't say the Dragons have been great in 2016, but the effort was there. Effort won't be enough on Friday night. Woof Woof.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 16

Result - Bulldogs 13 defeated Dragons 10

New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday afternoon – Mt Smart Stadium

Here's something you may not have noticed. The Warriors have lost their last three away games in golden point extra time to the Raiders in Canberra, the Sea Eagles in Perth and the Sharks in Sydney. They'll be happy they're back at Mt Smart where they usually produce their best, including their last two performances at home where they soundly defeated two top eight sides in the Titans and the Broncos. The Panthers are a top eight side currently - a win here and they probably move to seventh, while a loss sees them swapping places with the Warriors. A loss for the Warriors and they could quite easily drop to 11th. These sides played in Christchurch in round 10 where the Warriors started well but were no match for the Panthers in the end. The Warriors record in New Zealand away from Mt Smart is comically bad, so this is more like a real home game for them. That said, if the Panthers hold their form from last week they should prevail again. There are many ways to beat the Warriors (and sometimes they beat themselves). I imagine Nathan Cleary has had a chat to his Dad about a few of those ways.

Verdict – Panthers by 1

Result - Warriors 20 defeated Panthers 16

Parramatta Eels vs Wests Tigers – Saturday night – ANZ Stadium

When you are right 70% of the time you are going to be wrong 30% of the time, and I have a confession to make - I was wrong about Aaron Woods. I had him labelled as a bit of a pudding, probably because he looks like Baloo from The Jungle Book. This season he's racked up triple figures in metres gained every time he has played (including three Origins), and he's doing it the hard way. Three times this season he's run for more than 200 metres, and he was near his best with 183 metres last week. It's on the back of that effort, and the efforts of the lessor known supporting players in the Tigers pack, that the kids in the Tigers backline can perform. The Tigers are unlikely to make the top eight but it's not impossible. The Eels are done. Effort, and the flickering hope of finals football, will get the Tigers home.

Verdict – Tigers by 8

Result - Tigers 23 defeated Eels 8

North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm – Saturday night – 1300SMILES Stadium

While there was plenty of chatter here about the Panthers last week, the Panthers General Manager wrote an article about the Cowboys. Phil Gould described the Cowboys demolition of the Bulldogs as easily the best performance of the season. He described their first half performance as perfect football. That's high praise, and while they take to the field without their most important player they are yet to lose at home all season. In a way the absence of Thurston takes some of the pressure off them in this game. If he were there, and the Storm won, it would be quite a blow. Without him they know they have an ace up their sleeve if these two meet again in the finals (and that's looking likely). It's not often I focus on the wingers, and with good reason, but this game may be the exception that proves the rule. Winterstein isn't the tallest winger in the world and I expect Cooper Cronk to try and isolate him under the high ball. On the other flank Javen Bowen will need to contain Koroibete. The two Fijian wingers have notched up 27 tries for the Storm this season. In a game I'm finding difficult to split their finishing power could be the difference.

Verdict – Storm by 7

Result - Storm 16 defeated Cowboys 8

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday afternoon – ANZ Stadium

The Bunnies have named a cast of thousands on the bench which should boost the attendance figures at Tumbleweed Stadium this weekend. The red and green have all but given up, and those left in the crowd are rusted-ons that are there through thick and thin. They look thin. The Raiders have the top four in their sights and they deserve a finals berth this season. Well done Ricky Stuart...you cranky b*stard.

Verdict – Raiders by 18

Result - Raiders 54 defeated Rabbitohs 4

Manly Sea Eagles vs Newcastle Knights – Sunday afternoon – Brookvale Oval

Talking about the Knights makes me sad. I simply don't want to talk about it, instead I'll close my eyes and pretend it's 1997.

Verdict – Sea Eagles by 32

Result - Sea Eagles 36 defeated Knights 16

Gold Coast Titans vs Cronulla Sharks – Monday night – Cbus Super Stadium

Irrational this may be, but it wouldn't hurt the Sharks to lose a game before the finals series. The Titans are a sneaky hope here, but I have to remind myself of their clash in round six when the Sharks lost both Maloney and Lewis early in the game, and Andrew Fifita in the second half...and they still found a way to win. Finding a way to win has been their thing since round three. Greg Bird returns against his old side, but he's the sort of goofball that will try too hard, overplay his hand, and give away silly penalties. Someone will beat the Sharks eventually, but we may have to wait until they take on a team with a bigger boat.

Verdict – Sharks by 4

Result - Titans 18 drew with Sharks 18

Wally Lewis - round twenty-one selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

  • Roosters vs BRONCOS
  • BULLDOGS vs Dragons
  • Warriors vs PANTHERS
  • Eels vs TIGERS
  • Cowboys vs STORM
  • Rabbitohs vs RAIDERS
  • SEA EAGLES vs Knights
  • Titans vs SHARKS

1997 ARL Grand Final (Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles)

Comments

christine's picture

Mark I'm doing ok & I normally tip broncos myself but i'm giving up on them now for the rest of this season same as souths I haven't tipped them for at least half this season when you see the warning signs you know what you have to do .

mark ashford's picture

Hi Chris
Glad to hear you're doing ok.
Funny season this one. Teams who should have been winning, Souths, Roosters, and now the Broncs are struggling.
I think Roosters, Souths and hopefully my Broncs will win some games before the finals.
Anyway keep well and keep the faith.

Baggy_Gee's picture

I think Todd might be off finding a "bubbler". Flaming moron, but half decent football player, same as that other pooch pervert down at the Raiders a few years ago. I understand having a laugh with mates, but wouldn't the stupid go away when the phones/cameras came out?

Coach Potato's picture

Well done Warriors, but no shame Penrith. You are in it so often til the end. Not too much more you can ask.

Steel Panther's picture

Warriors finally win a golden point game!!!!!!!!!!

mark ashford's picture

Oh dear COACH you were saying you would hold up the trophy this year or next.
You're now out of the 8
Warriors deserved the win so many forward passes by Penrith I was going crosseyed.
Coach the Broncs can come back but I feel your Panthers gave all they had.
Hope you have something to say Coach.
Monsour was magnificent, unbelievable strength and commitment, put him in any team and they win.
Just as you hate the Broncos I'm overjoyed your Panthers lost.

Coach Potato's picture

Ahhh I said something 20 minutes ago straight after the finish and it started with congrats to Warriors.

Can you tell the difference about what you get from people when Broncos lose?

Yes I did say this year or next. That doesn't mean it will be this year does it? You really got a A in English? Surely they didn't test comprehension.

Rocket Ryan's picture

Out of pepper And out of luck coachy boy

Rocket Ryan's picture

Better get back in the 8 you could end up as 1 of the bottom teams

Rocket Ryan's picture

Coach predicted a flag this year or next i believe not coachy boy panthers tonight out of the eight who would thought

Me of course

Rocket Ryan's picture

Warriors not all that convincing panthers just couldn't take it

Rocket Ryan's picture

Warriors not all that convincing panthers just couldn't take it

mark ashford's picture

Hard to take Coach isn't it when you spruik so loud.
So it's now 2017..... good luck.
You next face the much improved Roosters. Good luck on that as well.
The Broncos will come back and if we meet you in a finals match, which I doubt it will be bye bye Panthers.

Rocket Ryan's picture

The silence is deafening coach how about a bit of poetry

mark ashford's picture

Coach I think comprehension is your problem that is the ability to understand something.
Your Panthers drop out and next face an improving Roosters at their home ground.
You love to give it to the Broncs.
Two days ago I told you the Warriors would beat you and they have.
Why don't you show a bit of humility, take your victories or losses, when they come and be nice like the rest of us.

mark ashford's picture

Rocket we lost this weekend but a Panthers loss is as good as a Broncos win wouldn't you say.

Coach Potato's picture

Panthers are in it game after game,
You could not ask for much more.

Broncos really just can't say the same.
There efforts of late have been poor.

mark ashford's picture

Yeah suck it up Coach we are still above you on the ladder

mark ashford's picture

Tiger nice win by your boys. Sorry Baggy but that's how it is.
As Wayne said "it is as it is"
Can't believe Coach keeps asking losing teams to praise the winners in after game press conferences.

Rocket Ryan's picture

Coachy boy come up to the mark more praise for the warriors panthers in it game after game but out of the eight

Rocket Ryan's picture

Mark we broncos do love
a little roast pototo

The Thinker's picture

I just watched the Panthers post-match press conference - no credit given to the Warriors...the Coach and Captain only talk about themselves.....tsk tsk tsk!!!

Coach Potato's picture

Panthers Broncos finals head to head record

1990 Panthers 26 Broncos 16 - Panthers rgo on to each Grand Final
2003 Panthers 28 Broncos 18 - Panthers go on to ake the title
2004 Panthers 46 Broncos 20 - Panthers go on to reach Prelim.

Why would another finals game be a problem?.
Two Grand Finals and a Prelim after using your team like a stepping stone in the post season.

Coach Potato's picture

Yeah I saw Thinker.

Admittedly it was Golden Point, obviously anyone's game and forgivable to dwell on a couple of errors.

A bit different to getting hammered by 40-14 by Dogs, 48-6 by Storm, 31-12 by Panthers, and 32-16 by Roosters and not giving any credit to the other team.

Putting these two in the same category is not what you would expect from someone who claims to be the Muhammad Ali of footy experts.

Baggy_Gee's picture

It really is getting a bridge to far. At least John Falou got a run, I am always surprised how little field time he gets. We have some great young talent, we need to use it. The BOYS will rise, we should get a lot better next year. But that's always the catch cry of bottom 8 teams, "Wait till next year" I'm sure that we have the talent, and drive and direction from Brad and the new board to shake it up. Lets get on with the end of the year, mad Monday, and our new start with the pre season.

Coach Potato's picture

Parra don't have a lot to play for re play offs but anyone interested in a holding their contract next year will keep playing til the end of 2016.

Then there's the fans and I think they are owed another cheer or two before seasons end.

Rocket Ryan's picture

Coach those stats aren't worth a crumpet your out of the eight AGAIN

Baggy_Gee's picture

Damn straight they owe us a win. A good one as I sit in the supporters bay at Suncorp and watch it live. Looking forward to the rebound in 2018, NRL can't take our cash away, then we get a massive amount of kick in the cap, and we can chase the next notch on our premiership belt.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Bronco's are basically out of the eight as well.

Coach Potato's picture

You will find there was a few kind words for the Warriors but the Panthers press conference was interesting cut short at 2 and half minutes. Nice one NRL.

Bennett, on the other hand, not one to mutter anything past half a sentence most of the time, is given 7 or 8 minutes of poor quality air time. That's a whole lot of half sentences. What a laugh this guy is to waste reporters times with the "it is what it is" rubbish ( and then not elaborate on about what the hell he is on about)

There is a big difference, Thinker.
Feeling a Derryn Hinch catch cry coming on.

Steel Panther's picture

Coach you forgot the Warriors 36-18 win in Round 13.

Coach Potato's picture

Sam McKendry,, Dean Whare, and Te Maire Martin.
Two internationals and undoubtedly the third will soon be.

We aren't exactly at full strength ourselves are we Broncos?

Baggy_Gee's picture

Approx $4 million of cap on the bench, Wow, this is just a bad season.

Rocket Ryan's picture

Broncos still in the eight baggy you just worry about paying that million off and clean up the drugs and porn shows out your way.

The Thinker's picture

Ali you say....not sure that's a comparison I've ever made but there you go.

Over the years Wayne Bennett must have said a thousand times words to this effect:

"Don't worry about the things you can't do anything about. Focus on the things you can."

His focus, and the focus he tries to instill in his team, is the notion of working on your own game and getting that right. Let the opposition worry about their game. He talks about the Broncos because he is focused on the Broncos. His club captain focuses on the Broncos because Bennett wants his players to focus on the Broncos. If a journalist asks them a question about a game they just played....well guess what? They talk about the Broncos. It's not rocket surgery.

But to summarize your position, when Bennett and Parker don't praise the Panthers its a disgrace, and when Griffin and Moylan don't praise the Warriors its completely understandable.

I said the Panthers were good when they beat the Broncos and you said I hadn't said enough. That I should have said more. Well no....I think good is pretty accurate. They weren't great and they still aren't.

In the games leading up to their win over the Broncos, the Panthers just scraped home against the Rabbits (who haven't won a game since), they lost to the Tigers, they lost to the Sharks, and they just scraped home against the Eels (who haven't won a game since). Now they've lost to the Warriors. The only teams they are beating are teams that aren't going well.

The Panthers last three games this season are against the Tigers, Titans and Sea Eagles....there's a fair chance those are four of the five teams that will be fighting it out for the last two slots in the finals series. They've got a battle on their hands just to get there.

Coach Potato's picture

Ali claimed to be the greatest and he truly was.

Coach Potato's picture

A Golden Point game press conference should have the same better team won time as with the ones post smashing after smashing?!

This site gets funnier by the minute.

mark ashford's picture

Coach you don't just get it do you. Panthers are a "good" team just not great.
What is it with this "praise the winning team" thing you are obsessed with
Does it make you feel better if your losing Panthers praise the winners?
I think you should be filthy and saying we'll get you next time.
This is not the girl scouts Coach.
It's RL and the best team wins.

Coach Potato's picture

He talks about the Broncos because he is arrogance personified.

mark ashford's picture

Who are you talking about Coach "arrogance personified"

Coach Potato's picture

The best team wins a lot of the time.
The rest of the time, its hard to pick who was better.
Games where it could have gone either way.
Much harder to concede who is the better team when the game could have gone either way.

When a team gets smashed, they just need to fess up .

Coach Potato's picture

Wayne James Bennett.

Coach Potato's picture

Wayne James Bennett.

Coach Potato's picture

I have no doubt he is a kind caring individual given his personal circumstances, but when it comes to footy, this is how I would describe him.

The Thinker's picture

Coach,
Bennett and Parker praised the storm and the Bulldogs after those losses.
Let it go.

Coach Potato's picture

Oh goody, so now I'm being muzzled.
Must have hit a nerve somewhere.

Coach Potato's picture

The streak table says Raiders win tomorrow and they are the 4th team to score 10 which is what you need to finish top4. Different to what the real ladder, my one says the Cowboys are not in a top 4 position. Who would have thought a few months ago that neither of these teams would be in the top4.

Two Sydney, a Melbourne, and a Canberra..

1 SHARKS 15
2 STORM 15
3 BULLDOGS 10
4 RAIDERS 9
_-------------------------
5 EELS 8
6 COWBOYS 7
7 BRONCOS 7
8 TITANS 7

a's picture

JT will be back next week

Tailspin's picture

Bloody hell a, the boys give it a good shot but just weren't good enough, great second half from them though, good signs for the finals.

Pages

The latest in NRL news