Round twenty one selections

Sydney Roosters vs Brisbane Broncos – Thursday night – Allianz Stadium

The Roosters won the last three minor premierships in a row, and they've won just three games this season. Their last win was way back in round 13, in atrocious conditions over the Tigers. Other than that they've beaten the team running last and the team running thirteenth. They're not just a shadow of the team they were in seasons past, they're a shadow of a shadow. Dark days indeed. Despite that, you've got to give them a chance on recent form. The Bulldogs only beat them by four points, and the Bulldogs beat the Broncos by 26. The Storm beat them in Melbourne by 16 points, but the Storm beat the Broncos in Brisbane by 42 points. And a 12 point loss to the Sharks isn't a disgrace either. The Broncos, with just two wins from their last eight games, are looking a little shadowy themselves. Thaiday, McGuire, Kahu and Reed are unavailable - that's (technically) four internationals, but the return of Gillett is an important one. I'm far from confident, but we've seen the Broncos with their backs to the wall many times over the years. More often than not, they fight back and find a way. If Waerea-Hargreaves was playing I'd be tipping the Chickens...but he isn't...so I won't.

Verdict – Broncos by 4

Result - Roosters 32 defeated Broncos 16

Canterbury Bulldogs vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Friday night – ANZ Stadium

These sides met in round 14 where the Bulldogs prevailed 34-16, and the line-ups on Friday night are much the same as they were back then. The Dragons have done little to show me they've improved. Since round 14 they've beaten a reserve grade Storm outfit and the Knights, but they've been dismantled on every other occasion. The Bulldogs were dismantled last week, but the team that dismantled them would have dismantled everybody. More on that later. With a loss here the Dragons can all but plan their trip to Thailand. I can't say the Dragons have been great in 2016, but the effort was there. Effort won't be enough on Friday night. Woof Woof.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 16

Result - Bulldogs 13 defeated Dragons 10

New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday afternoon – Mt Smart Stadium

Here's something you may not have noticed. The Warriors have lost their last three away games in golden point extra time to the Raiders in Canberra, the Sea Eagles in Perth and the Sharks in Sydney. They'll be happy they're back at Mt Smart where they usually produce their best, including their last two performances at home where they soundly defeated two top eight sides in the Titans and the Broncos. The Panthers are a top eight side currently - a win here and they probably move to seventh, while a loss sees them swapping places with the Warriors. A loss for the Warriors and they could quite easily drop to 11th. These sides played in Christchurch in round 10 where the Warriors started well but were no match for the Panthers in the end. The Warriors record in New Zealand away from Mt Smart is comically bad, so this is more like a real home game for them. That said, if the Panthers hold their form from last week they should prevail again. There are many ways to beat the Warriors (and sometimes they beat themselves). I imagine Nathan Cleary has had a chat to his Dad about a few of those ways.

Verdict – Panthers by 1

Result - Warriors 20 defeated Panthers 16

Parramatta Eels vs Wests Tigers – Saturday night – ANZ Stadium

When you are right 70% of the time you are going to be wrong 30% of the time, and I have a confession to make - I was wrong about Aaron Woods. I had him labelled as a bit of a pudding, probably because he looks like Baloo from The Jungle Book. This season he's racked up triple figures in metres gained every time he has played (including three Origins), and he's doing it the hard way. Three times this season he's run for more than 200 metres, and he was near his best with 183 metres last week. It's on the back of that effort, and the efforts of the lessor known supporting players in the Tigers pack, that the kids in the Tigers backline can perform. The Tigers are unlikely to make the top eight but it's not impossible. The Eels are done. Effort, and the flickering hope of finals football, will get the Tigers home.

Verdict – Tigers by 8

Result - Tigers 23 defeated Eels 8

North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm – Saturday night – 1300SMILES Stadium

While there was plenty of chatter here about the Panthers last week, the Panthers General Manager wrote an article about the Cowboys. Phil Gould described the Cowboys demolition of the Bulldogs as easily the best performance of the season. He described their first half performance as perfect football. That's high praise, and while they take to the field without their most important player they are yet to lose at home all season. In a way the absence of Thurston takes some of the pressure off them in this game. If he were there, and the Storm won, it would be quite a blow. Without him they know they have an ace up their sleeve if these two meet again in the finals (and that's looking likely). It's not often I focus on the wingers, and with good reason, but this game may be the exception that proves the rule. Winterstein isn't the tallest winger in the world and I expect Cooper Cronk to try and isolate him under the high ball. On the other flank Javen Bowen will need to contain Koroibete. The two Fijian wingers have notched up 27 tries for the Storm this season. In a game I'm finding difficult to split their finishing power could be the difference.

Verdict – Storm by 7

Result - Storm 16 defeated Cowboys 8

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday afternoon – ANZ Stadium

The Bunnies have named a cast of thousands on the bench which should boost the attendance figures at Tumbleweed Stadium this weekend. The red and green have all but given up, and those left in the crowd are rusted-ons that are there through thick and thin. They look thin. The Raiders have the top four in their sights and they deserve a finals berth this season. Well done Ricky Stuart...you cranky b*stard.

Verdict – Raiders by 18

Result - Raiders 54 defeated Rabbitohs 4

Manly Sea Eagles vs Newcastle Knights – Sunday afternoon – Brookvale Oval

Talking about the Knights makes me sad. I simply don't want to talk about it, instead I'll close my eyes and pretend it's 1997.

Verdict – Sea Eagles by 32

Result - Sea Eagles 36 defeated Knights 16

Gold Coast Titans vs Cronulla Sharks – Monday night – Cbus Super Stadium

Irrational this may be, but it wouldn't hurt the Sharks to lose a game before the finals series. The Titans are a sneaky hope here, but I have to remind myself of their clash in round six when the Sharks lost both Maloney and Lewis early in the game, and Andrew Fifita in the second half...and they still found a way to win. Finding a way to win has been their thing since round three. Greg Bird returns against his old side, but he's the sort of goofball that will try too hard, overplay his hand, and give away silly penalties. Someone will beat the Sharks eventually, but we may have to wait until they take on a team with a bigger boat.

Verdict – Sharks by 4

Result - Titans 18 drew with Sharks 18

Wally Lewis - round twenty-one selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

  • Roosters vs BRONCOS
  • BULLDOGS vs Dragons
  • Warriors vs PANTHERS
  • Eels vs TIGERS
  • Cowboys vs STORM
  • Rabbitohs vs RAIDERS
  • SEA EAGLES vs Knights
  • Titans vs SHARKS

1997 ARL Grand Final (Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles)

Comments

Coach Potato's picture

If it was you making the Bunker call tonight, Tiger, it would be your head on the block tomorrow just the same.

Coach Potato's picture

I have a theory on golf handicapping too. Much easier to work out.

Recall your best score ever. Eg 10 over par, then add 1/2 a shot per hole (ie. add 9)
So your best score in relation to par, and add 9.

My example from earlier shows me as a 12, and spot on -but of course, it's my theory.

Would be keen to know if this calculation is an accurate guide to others handicaps.

Coach Potato's picture

Thinker, a team, you said in your intro, would drop out of contention this week. They played tonight.

Coach Potato's picture

Ok Benny and Parks. Time for your weekly wrap.
Got anything to say about who was the better team tonight?
... Nar, didn't think so. Same old shit.
Love the bit where Benny says "it is what it is"
Reporter asks for more and Parks helps out "Like Benny said, it is what if is". Love it.

You want arrogance of the highest order. Here you go again.

http://www.nrl.com/rd-21-press-conference-broncos/tabid/10959/contentid/...

Rocket Ryan's picture

It is what it is never as bad as it seems never as good as it seems win or lose istill love the broncos.

#moreupsthandowns

Coach Potato's picture

More ups hey?

Must be enjoying losing more than winning.

Anything to say about who was the better team?

a's picture

Hopefully Broncos do better next week

boozemaster2000 's picture

Hi Coach, sorry I didn't get my tip in before Thursday. I was travelling between countries, so you gotta give me some slack man!! If I can still tip for the remaining games, I'll go as follows:

Bulldogs
Penrith
Wests
Melbourne
Canberra
Manly
Sharks

And for the couch tip, I'll take the Panthers, but that will be a tight one. Warriors at home, both sides unpredictable. But I think Panthers will be on a high after last weeks game, and probably having a good sniff of finals.

Tailspin's picture

Roosters played well and broncos played shit again, as I predicted, it was the roosters turn to win. I just cant see the Broncos winning with the way they are playing, they have no confidence, no flair, no nothing really. At one stage Darius Boyd running across field with the ball looking for a runner and the whole lot of them were walking and not interested in receiving the ball resulting in boyd being tackled with the ball. I've never seen the broncos playing so bad, it's a shame.

GaryChesterUK's picture

So I won on the game last night, going to try again!

Bulldogs - Dragons

At the moment I'm going for points - over 40.5 @ 10/11 (About 1.9)

However, I shall now sleep on it and see what the weather is doing before kick off! Anybody else having a bet? Or predicting anything?

Johnny Awesome's picture

It is what it is is just one comment. What more can be said? He also acknowledged Broncos need to lift. I loved his reply when questioned about the losing streak indicating deep problems at Red Hill?
His reply was:
"I can put my finger on it, but you don't have enough time to hear it,"
Yep there is stuff happening behind closed doors. In saying that you can't take three Australian players out a team have another major player not finish the game and expect to win against a quality side like the Roosters. What they had on paper yesterday was a really good team and their status on the ladder doesn't reflect their strength. Watch out to the other teams taking them on some top eight teams will be getting nervous Cheers Mr Aeesome

christine's picture

For the rest of the season I don't care who broncos play against i'm not taking broncos again , not even if the play knights or souths will I tip them .

mark ashford's picture

Coach let me be the first to say the Roosters played exceptionally well.
The Broncos with up to 7 first choice players out looked very ordinary.
There is trouble in the camp. I read on another site that Josh Maguire is the cause. May explain his brain snaps trying to make good.
I won't go into any detail as it may not be true but came from a few sources.
From what I read I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncs didn't win another game this season.
The bunker turn over was a joke but still wouldn't have saved them.
The (by far) better team won on the night.
I've been waiting all season for the Roosters to come good...pity it had to be last night.
Coach take your best 6 out and see how your Panthers go.
I think the Warriors will test your Panthers tomorrow. If I'm wrong then I'll be the first to send congrats.
Watched a 1983 game today between the Dogs and Dragons.
Shamefully I didn't know too many of the players but it was an eye opener. Scrums fed in the middle and won by either team. Fights galore, but nothing serious. One ref, no video ref, no bunker, no walking off the mark, no wrestling...was really enjoyable.

mark ashford's picture

Rocket...I know my post above is pretty negative but the Broncs have some internal troubles and so many guys out.
With a full squad and if Wayne can reinstall some confidence they should win against the Dragons, the Eels and a rematch with the Roosters.
That will give them a spot in the 8 after that it's up to the RL Gods.

Coach Potato's picture

Very fair comments Mark.
Although I hate to tell you in 2014 we had probably 8-10 first choices out for large parts of the season and only lost the Prelim by 6 I think it was.

What the team lacks is belief in their halves. Not sure where that all started, but that's how they are playing. There's really no answer to that. Forwards coming back ain't gonna fix it.

I think Darius has also tried his only trick, the show and go a few too many times. When the defence doesn't flinch,, he falls down as if shot. Bloody hilarious.

Spot on, Lifehouse, if it requires me to say so myself.

Coach Potato's picture

Hard to believe that you have a realistic chance of 5 out of 5 with that strategy christine.

mark ashford's picture

Coach I remember your Panthers woes in 2014 only so well.
So far this year they have remained fairly intact and I wish them well.
Of course I would love my Broncs to hold up the trophy this year but don't think it will happen.
Sharks? Storm? Cowboys? or maybe your Panthers.
Lets see what the next 6 rounds bring.

Coach Potato's picture

Did I hear right that Sharks aren't even getting a home final in week 1?? Minor premiers by a squillion, and they could be playing away to the Dogs??

NRL stinks when it comes to thinking of dollars in front of home ground advantage.

christine's picture

Mark I know you want to remain loyal to your broncos but tip with your head not your heart that's all i'm going to say , the rest is up to you .

Baggy_Gee's picture

Ah Mark, the Eels have had just as many first choice players out/stolen/sadly burnt out, and we can still compete. It's odd that a team coached by Wayne doesn't have the depth that he usually cultivates. As per my comment back during the origin period, their non origin players are still players I'd be quite OK having playing with the BOYS.

Baggy_Gee's picture

The dogs should be short 2 players. Sam for that hit off the ball and grub mk. 2 for that trip.

mark ashford's picture

Just heard a fox commentator say "whether or not that was a forward pass doesn't matter" (the josh Reynolds try)
So forward passes in our game don't matter any more.
The dogs are a grubby team, tipped them but would love to see the Dragons win.

doggie's picture

Go u good doggies. Come finals time the dogs of war come out to play. Beware.

doggie's picture

Hey bigpete. Did u see my post. Thinker put it up from last week under his name. Bit more stuff about Oberon etc.

a's picture

Renloyds could be in trouble

Tailspin's picture

Cowboys to win in a thriller tonight, ye ha.
Go the boys.
Bulldogs very lucky to get the win last night I think.

Coach Potato's picture

Reynolds should miss the Manly game if not the Broncos game too.
Must be his fourth or fifth attempt at this kind of act.

The NRL is as weak as it's ever been if they do nothing.

Coach Potato's picture

Broncos start to the weekend last 7 rounds.
The NRL and Broncos in bed together schedule hijacking has come back to bite both on the ass.

Rnd 20 Friday v Panthers
Rnd 21 Thursday v Roosters
Rnd 22 Thursday v Dragons
Rnd 23 Friday v Eels
Rnd 24 Thursday v Bulldogs
Rnd 25 Friday v Storm
Rnd 26 Thursday v Roosters

Don't forget to have a good weekend Broncos.

christine's picture

Yeah really coach watch & see ...

a's picture

GoCowboys for tonight

christine's picture

Coach you mock me for my strategy but who is the one on the couch & who isn't ?

christine's picture

Coach it's not five from five it's six from six going for seven from seven if you care to check your own ladder for your couch comp .

Coach Potato's picture

Sorry I must have confused you.
I was talking about your strategy of picking the team that plays Broncos the last 5 rounds. Sounds like a winner (not mocking).

Coach Potato's picture

Te Maire Martin, play well in your comeback game.
NSW cup v Newtown Jets 3pm @ Henson Park.

You are only young and may not know that Newtown is a Rugby League founding member going back to the first day in 1908, and Newtown has played at Henson Park as far back as 1936. The oldest Rugby League ground in use as far as I am aware. (Bunnies first used Refresh Oval in 1948). What a great experience for you Te Maire. Enjoy.

Coach Potato's picture

Refresh??!! Bloody spell corrector - wrong most of the time.
I meant to say Redfern.

Coach Potato's picture

Thanks for GF 97Thinker.

Amazed that Shaun Johnson didn't create that move, that it was Robbie O'Davis.

Coach Potato's picture

GaryChesterUK,
I'm putting the equivalent of £10 on the Catalans Dragons to win. Super League 2016. Not giving you a tip here, more likely in Aussie slang, a "bum steer".

Currently 12/1. They are 5th now, but hopefully 4th by end of the 7 game round robin finals series and into the semis. Featuring Aussies Pat Richards, Justin Horo, Dave Taylor, and Willie Mason.

mark ashford's picture

Coach is Todd Carney still playing for Catalan? or has he moved on and if so do you know where he is?

BigPeteBx's picture

Good Saturday afternoon Doggie.

Yes, I did read that and responded with more on it, but I thought you might have given me the nostalgia flick.
In mention were the names Trudgett and Ballingers.

Keep well and think of us Southerners down here, with the temps we are getting. Could be 16 degrees here today - heatwave in Winter. The breeze will soon cool that down.

Cheers and keep well.
Big Pete

BigPeteBx's picture

Hello there Gary -
if those fellows can keep their momentum up, it might not be a proverbial bum steer.

Cheers - Pete

BigPeteBx's picture

Yes Coach - can sometimes be a problem when you are also thinking of "Rehash"

BigPeteBx's picture

Hello Tailspin and hope all is well at Bundy.

Bronco's are playing as a tribe of individuals and not as a team.
If they have problems within, they best weed it out or sacrifice playing in the finals.

I backed Chooks on Thursday night, as I knew Broncs had to travel South and they weren't travelling too well either.

I don't know about a shame, but a Bennett coached Qld team usually isn't back-peddling, this time in a season.

Cheers and take care of The White Bear.

BigPeteBx's picture

Good Saturday afternoon to you MA.

As long as Todd is staying out of mischief/trouble, he can play anywhere and that includes on the field, if he's not suspended.

Cheers Bro - Big Pete

BigPeteBx's picture

Gee Coach - I draw could be on the cards between Broncs and Drags.

But if The Gong sea breeze is blowing - The Sun Lovers wont like that, especially if goals are the decider.

BigPeteBx's picture

Good Saturday afternoon Fortress and E/Rocks if u r enjoying a leisurely afternoon drop.

As I said before, Manly should take it week by week and then we can climb over what we have to.

I wont say Eagles will thump Knights, because Knights only got beaten by 4 pts by Raiders in Canberra- 4 rounds ago.

However,Fortress, that was a keen prediction with Broncs/Chooks match you made. I thought as a tipper (or u r only posting) and as I said earlier, Broncs had to travel South to play and they haven't been travelling too well lately. Needless to say mate, I tipped Chook's to win and it wont be their last before the season ends for them.

Thankfully, we don't have to play them again. We have Eels and Dogs on the road then Storm at home (Brooky I hope).

Cheers - heading out this arvo/evening and a big morning tomorrow with a legends m/tea, where I am.

Keep well - Big Pete

BigPeteBx's picture

Grand Final should be played between Townsville and Melbourne.

That makes Sydney the ideal location and keeps with tradition.
When the ploughs and dozers come in to modify stadiums, then an alternate can be made. Maybe even back to SCG, whilst ANZ is getting pruned up a bit.

a's picture

Warrors ended Panthers streak in holdern cup

mark ashford's picture

Hi BigPete
Yes Toddy has been a naughty boy over the years but he can play RL.
Just read that Foran has been released by the Eels.
Any chance he will resign with the Eagles?
Played his best there beside DCE.
I'm not a golfer (am I missing out on anything?) friends say don't take it up?
Not a soccer fan either except for a passing interest in the Roar when they were winning.
Have always had a soft spot for the Spurs in the UK league since a young tacker. Don't believe they are going too well.
A bit chilly there mate? It's a balmy 22 degrees here, light winds and blue skys. Keep your woolies on.

mark ashford's picture

Christine thanks for the tipping advice mate. You should always tip with your head not your heart. But its hard to go against your team.
If I had not tipped the Broncs in their losing run I would still be a few points off the lead.
Hope you are well!

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