Penrith Panthers vs Brisbane Broncos – Thursday night – CommBank Stadium

For the Broncos fans hoping their team can still make the top eight, I have difficult news. The Broncos are currently on 16 points. Over the last four seasons, you've needed 32 points to finish 8th (2025 and 2023) and 30 points in 2024 and 2022. Given the congested nature of the current ladder, I'm almost certain you will need 32 points...and possibly even more. With no byes left in their draw, I think the Broncos need to win every match for the rest of the season. That's not impossible, but their next five games are all against sides currently in the top eight. The first hurdle is Thursday night, and there's a fair chance they don't clear that one. They played the Panthers in round one in Brisbane where the visitors were comfortable 26-0 victors. This time around they travel to CommBank in Sydney, where the Panthers haven't lose a game this year. The Broncos are throwing everything at this one, with a raft of key additions to the line-up (Haas, Walsh, Carrigan, Mam, Reynolds, Walters, Carapani). Based on that list you could almost give them a chance, until you notice that the Panthers are welcoming back Cleary, Yeo, Martin, Mclean and Papali'i. I expect a contest, but I fear the Broncos will fall short.

Verdict - Panthers by 7

Result - Broncos 14 defeated Panthers 12

Cronulla Sharks vs Newcastle Knights – Friday night – Ocean Protect Stadium

4th placed Cronulla take on 5th placed Newcastle in a match of great consequence for the future finals picture. Note that the Knights have actually won more games than the Sharks, and still have a bye up their sleeve. The Sharks have been on a bit of run in recent weeks, winning 6 of their last 7. I wasn't expecting them to beat the Dolphins last week, and certainly not by such a margin. Clearly they're playing well, but that result was out of the box. The Knights tried to spoil the birthday party last week against the Bunnies but fell agonisingly short. They created plenty of chances (about 6 disallowed tries from memory) but fall short they did. The issue this week is their atrocious record against the Sharks. They've lost six of their last seven, and haven't won a game at Shark Park for over a decade. Clearly they don't like the joint...and who could blame them.

Verdict - Sharks by 7

Result - Sharks 20 defeated Knights 18

Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm – Friday night – Allianz Stadium

The Storm are in a similar predicament to the Broncos, were they can barely afford to lose a game for the rest of the year if they wish to play finals. They have slightly more wiggle room than the defending premiers, but not nearly enough to be comfortable. And like the Broncos, they probably need to win against a formidable opponent away from home this round to stay in the hunt. That challenge got markedly more difficult when Hughes joined Munster in the casualty ward. Their decline is something of a surprise, primarily because they've been so darn professional and so darn good for so long, but losing the quartet of Papenhuyzen, Coates, Katoa and Kamikamica from last season has left a hole they haven't been able to fill. The Chooks look well entrenched in the top four and are on track and on schedule. They'll be without Tedesco and Collins on Friday night as they rest their heads for another week, but they have a deep roster and should get the job done here.

Verdict - Roosters by 10

Result - Roosters 14 defeated Storm 6

Canberra Raiders vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Saturday afternoon – GIO Stadium

I can't get carried away with the Raiders because they have disappointed me often this season, but they were very good against the Bulldogs last week. One swallow does not a summer make...but a good win nonetheless. A repeat of that performance and they win again, and they have already beaten the Bunnies this season in Perth. Walker returns for the Rabbitohs this week and he owes his club a decent performance after his latest on-field brain explosion. This is probably the hardest game of the round, but I've ended up with the Raiders for two main reasons - the weather in Canberra in July is just awful, and the Raiders have a much better balanced bench. If the Bunnies have any issues with injuries throughout the game, they'll be scrambling to cover positions. A coin toss really, but:

Verdict - Raiders by 2

Result - Raiders 34 defeated Rabbitohs 24

New Zealand Warriors vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Saturday night – Go Media Stadium

It's been fifteen years since the Dragons won a game in Auckland, and this might be the best Warriors side they've had to face in all that time. Barnett, Capewell and Watene-Zelezniak return for the home side, and I simply can't mount a case for the visitors. The Dragons wil turn up and have a crack, so at least their fans can't complete that they aren't having a go, but class prevails.

Verdict - Warriors by 14

Result - Warriors 20 defeated Dragons 12

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Wests Tigers – Saturday night – Accor Stadium

Both sides could probably math their way to a top eight finish this season, but it's not going to happen. The best they can do from here is win more games than they lose, and book some holidays for September. These sides met not long ago, when the Tigers surprised a few with a 22-16 victory. That Bulldogs team included Crichton, Xerri and Tupouniua, and none of them will be available on Saturday. The Tigers didn't have Doueihi in round 13, but they did have Koroisau, and I've regularly mentioned they're much better when he's there. He's on the extended bench, but unlikely. Plenty of noise around Jarome Luai this week and he's one footballer that doesn't seem to mind. If anything, it's likely to bring out his best, and I'm happy to tip the Tigers in an upset.

Verdict - Tigers by 4

Result - Bulldogs 32 defeated Tigers 0

Gold Coast Titans vs Manly Sea Eagles – Sunday afternoon – Cbus Super Stadium

The Sea Eagles have the third best points differential in the NRL this season, but find themselves outside the top eight. That would suggest there's been some big wins this season, and some narrow losses, as there was last weekend in extra time to the Cowboys. This looks like the sort of game the Sea Eagles could win by some distance, but I have my doubts. When these sides last met in round 12 the Sea Eagles prevailed 12-10 at Brookvale. There will likely be more points on a Sunday afternoon on the coast, but I don't think there'll be much between them at the business end. The Titans were unlucky against the Storm last week, and Hannay had a fair point about his troops and their 'misfortune' when it comes to the 50-50 decisions. Not much they can really do about that, but it's great to see them competing each and every week, and clearly getting better. I'll be crossing everything and hoping the home side can win this, but when it comes to a tip I'll be sticking with the visitors...just.

Verdict - Sea Eagles by 2

Result - Titans 38 defeated Sea Eagles 32

Redliffe Dolphins vs North Queensland Cowboys – Sunday afternoon – Suncorp Stadium

It's not easy to get a read on that Dolphins result last weekend. Prior to that they were arguably the form team in the NRL, so a 66-0 loss at home is hard to process. It's more likely to be an anomaly rather than a slump. Tabua-Fidow, Cobbo and Bostock return to bolster the prospects. For the Cowboys, Deardon is again on an extended bench. There's talk he will play on Sunday so worth watching for team updates. The Dolphins have won their last four games against the Cowboys and you'd expect the coach to have them switched on and fired up after the debacle last round. A return to form and this is the game of the round.

Verdict - Dolphins by 4

Result - Dolphins 36 defeated Cowboys 16

Wally Lewis - round twenty selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

• PANTHERS vs Broncos
• SHARKS vs Knights
• ROOSTERS vs Storm
• RAIDERS vs Rabbitohs
• WARRIORS vs Dragons
• BULLDOGS vs Tigers
• Titans vs SEA EAGLES
• DOLPHINS vs Cowboys