Game details

Date: Wednesday 17th July 2024

Time: 8.05pm kick-off

Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Tickets: General tickets unavailable because Queensland gets Origin

Team list - Queensland Maroons

1. Reece Walsh (Brisbane Broncos)
2. Selwyn Cobbo (Brisbane Broncos)
3. Dane Gagai (Newcastle Knights)
4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Redcliffe Dolphins)
5. Valentine Holmes (North Queensland Cowboys)
6. Tom Deardon (North Queensland Cowboys)
7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c) (Manly Sea Eagles)
8. Reuben Cotter (North Queensland Cowboys)
9. Ben Hunt (St George Illawarra)
10. Lindsay Collins (Sydney Roosters)
11. Kurt Capewell (New Zealand Warriors)
12. Jeremiah Nanai (North Queensland Cowboys)
13. Patrick Carrigan (Brisbane Broncos)
14. Harry Grant (Melbourne Storm)
15. Moeaki Fotuaika (Gold Coast Titans)
16. Felise Kaufusi (Redcliffe Dolphins)
17. Kalyn Ponga (Newcastle Knights)

Team list - New South Wales Blues

1. Dylan Edwards (Penrith Panthers)
2. Brian To'o (Penrith Panthers)
3. Bradman Best (Newcastle Knights)
4. Stephen Crichton (Canterbury Bulldogs)
5. Zac Lomax (St George Illawarra Dragons)
6. Jarome Luai (Penrith Panthers)
7. Mitchell Moses (Parramatta Eels)
8. Jake Trbojevic (c) (Manly Sea Eagles)
9. Reece Robson (North Queensland Cowboys)
10. Payne Haas (Brisbane Broncos)
11. Liam Martin (Penrith Panthers)
12. Angus Crichton (Sydney Roosters)
13. Cameron Murray (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
14. Connor Watson (Sydney Roosters
15. Isaah Yeo (Penrith Panthers)
16. Mitchell Barnett (New Zealand Warriors)
17. Spencer Leniu (Sydney Roosters)

Game preview

A few changes for game three, most significantly for QLD with some major changes in their backline. Both wingers from game two (Taulagi and Coates) are out with injuries. They are replaced by the returning Cobbo and Holmes who shifts from the centres. Two new centres with Gagai returning from the wilderness and Tabuai-Fidow returning from injury. Jaydn S'ua is a surprise omission from the starting thirteen, replaced by Kurt Capewell, and Ponga is the new face on the bench. If Queensland win game three, it's the star-studded backline that will get the job done. Less changes for NSW, with Best the likely replacement for Mitchell in the centres. Note that Best would have been selected earlier if he were available, and he showed he can handle this arena in his Origin debut. That said, he's trained away from the rest of the NSW squad today, with Burton lining up in the centres. So there's some chance he's a line-up change there. Other than that, the Blues have stuck with the team that played some near-perfect football in game two, and why wouldn't they. The challenge, and this isn't new news for anyone, is to win a decider at Suncorp Stadium. The last times these sides played at this venue was Game Two last year, where QLD claimed a series victory with a comprehensive 32-6 victory. In 2022, there was a game three series decider at Suncorp. That year, NSW won game two comfortably (44-12), only to lose the game that mattered most (22-12). A very similar thing happened in 2020, where NSW won game two comfortably (34-10) before losing the game that mattered most at Suncorp (20-14). It's a pattern that's hard to ignore. QLD coach Billy Slater, who understands the media better than most, has cleverly made much of the focus of game three on him. The media might catch on soon, but they haven't yet, so well played Billy. By doing so, he's letting his team focus on the result. The commentary teams will tell you that the NSW forwards are too strong, but they're not, and that this NSW team is different to all the other NSW teams, but they're not. NSW can certainly win this - they have, after all, won 3 of the last 6 series. But I'll tip QLD because they've won 2 of the last 2 series, and 14 of the last 18, and I'm a little bit biased. Hopefully I'm celebrating on Wednesday night, and Andrew Johns put on one of his petulant displays with the microphone post-match.

Verdict - QLD 22 to defeat NSW 18

Predicted first try scorer - Dane Gagai

Predicted player of the match - Patrick Carrigan