Game preview
A quick summary of games thus far - NSW came from behind to claim game one by a narrow margin, with most of their points scored after the send off of Qld fullback Kalyn Ponga. They got there, but only just, with a moment of bobbling magic from Tedesco getting them over the line with not much more than a minute to spare. It's easy to forget that in game two the Blues led 12-0, given the final scoreline of Qld 44 to NSW 24. Dominance. Multiple changes in game three, especially so for NSW with Koroisau, To'o, Lucas and Staggs all out and Brailey, Best, Olakua'atu, Martin and Crichton brought in. For Qld, Collins and Finefeuiaki are out with Carrigan, Nanai and Horsburgh brought into camp. I should spend some time on NSW coach Laurie Daley who, I suspect, will have a few things to say after this game whether they win, lose or draw. He's faced his share of criticism this series, and while I've found some of the selections and his use of the interchange perplexing, he's no slouch as a coach. People will reference his Origin coaching record (6 series for 5 series losses) but they forget that most of those losses were during that mighty reign of Qld. Daley has never lost a series 3-0, and even won an Origin series when NSW selected Josh Reynolds and Trent Hodkinson in the halves. In a series against a team that included Slater, Inglis, Thurston, Cronk and Smith...that's an extraordinary achievement. Note that Craig Bellamy coached NSW for 3 years for just 2 wins and 7 losses. No-one would suggest that Bellamy can't coach. Anyhoo, Daley has a challenge on his hands, and while I can't definitively say they can't win, it does seem unlikely. There are too many Qld players in stellar form, and the inclusion of Carrigan and Nanai for game three potentially makes them ever better. Things can go wrong on the night, as they did in game one when Ponga was sent off. But all things being equal, this Qld line-up are singing and NSW look like they don't even know the lyrics. There's been plenty of team changes for NSW, and it doesn't hurt to try new things, but shaking the snowdome and hoping to find the magic is a risky strategy. It didn't work for game two, and probably won't work for game three either.
Verdict - Qld 30 to defeat NSW 16
Predicted first try scorer - Selwyn Cobbo
Predicted player of the match - Kalyn Ponga
Don't forget to submit your predictions for our State of Origin competition. First prize is $50 cash. You can find the Origin comp here.
Game details
Date: Wednesday 8th July 2026
Time: 8.05pm kick-off
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Team list - Queensland Maroons*
- Kalyn Ponga (Newcastle Knights)
- Selwyn Cobbo (Redcliffe Dolphins)
- Robert Toia (Sydney Roosters)
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Redcliffe Dolphins)
- Jojo Fifita (Gold Coast Titans)
- Cameron Munster (c) (Melbourne Storm)
- Sam Walker (Sydney Roosters)
- Thomas Flegler (Redcliffe Dolphins)
- Harry Grant (Melbourne Storm)
- Tino Fa'asumaleaui (Gold Coast Titans)
- Briton Nikora (Cronulla Sharks)
- Kurt Capewell (New Zealand Warriors)
- Reuben Cotter (North Queensland Cowboys)
- Max Plath (Redcliffe Dolphins)
- Patrick Carrigan (Brisbane Broncos)
- Jeremiah Nanai (North Queensland Cowboys)
- Trent Loiero (Melbourne Storm)
- Reece Walsh (Brisbane Broncos)
-
Murray Taulagi (North Queensland Cowboys)
Team list - New South Wales Blues*
- James Tedesco (Sydney Roosters)
- Jack Bostock (Redcliffe Dolphins)
- Bradman Best (Newcastle Knights)
- Stephen Crichton (Canterbury Bulldogs)
- Mark Nawaqanitawase (Sydney Roosters)
- Mitchell Moses (Parramatta Eels)
- Nathan Cleary (Penrith Panthers)
- Payne Haas (Brisbane Broncos)
- Reece Robson (Sydney Roosters)
- Mitchell Barnett (New Zealand Warriors)
- Hudson Young (Canberra Raiders)
- Liam Martin (Penrith Panthers)
- Isaah Yeo (c) (Penrith Panthers)
- Cameron Murray (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
- Addin Fonua-Blake (Cronulla Sharks)
- Haumole Olakau'atu (Manly Sea Eagles)
- Blayke Brailey (Cronulla Sharks)
- Ethan Strange (Canberra Raiders)
- Tolutau Koula (Manly Sea Eagles)
*Team lists are subject to change and will be updated as soon as possible.
Comments
Submitted by tigerholic on
Afternoon Thinker, Afternoon Tipsters.
State of Origin time is a time I really hate living in QLD.
I never seem to be amazed by the comments and confidence of Queensland in almost every accounter, what I haven't heard for the decider yet is that Queensland are the "UNDERDOGS".
I appreciate your summation of the game Thinker and you make a lot of valid points.
NSW have always made changes even if changes are not seen to be necessary by us fans.
Laurie Daley can't hang much on his record as NSW Coach, perhaps he can hang a copy of his resignation letter on it, yes I know I am a supporter but his interchanges and selections have been atrocious and so ineffective we were always chasing our tails to be competitive.
One thing that being a Tigers supporter and a NSW supporter is that we are used to being on the wrong end of the scorecard a lot, the one thing we never do is give up or not follow our team.
You will never see me wearing another team colour other than Tigers and NSW, I enjoy the spectacle and the contest. The way you Maroons carry on is really something to behold, you cannot see it but the support for Queensland gives off a degree of arrogance and I hope in the most respectful way, NSW can shove some of that arrogance up wear the sun don't shine.
I had a bet on the first game for a carton of 30 cans of Supercrisp, that person is a tipster on this site and to give a hint who he is, he sometimes uses the word "Buffoon". That spineless Buffoon hasn't yet coughed up that carton and ran scared of going around again for another carton. I am waiting for a late message to say, "how bout we double or nothing on the last game".
Go The Blues
Tiger
Submitted by The Thinker on
Thanks Tigerholic
As a Blues fan, it sounds like you don't get Origin or your carton of Supercrisp :-)
Best of luck on Wednesday night. Let's hope your mob make a game of it.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by tigerholic on
Hey Thinker
Thought I would reply to your comment about not getting Origin.
I get it mate, tonight the NSW team showed what it means to take on adversity and to thrive.
My son and I never felt comfortable especially when that last try for QLD was scored but subsequently denied.
Have to admire Harry for his comments about the game tonight, well done NSW, an amazing win as massive under dogs.
Tiger
Submitted by Mary S on
Hi Tiger,
Since marrying a Queenslander, I’ve moved from my birth state of SA, with stints in NZ, Qld, SA, WA (south & north regions), Qld, Thursday Island and finally back to the north coast of Qld.
During those years, I’ve observed (and been part of), a variety of sports and have found the contrast in behaviour of fans of the sport to be different, yet the same in different states.
For me, the most notable of these is the joy, enthusiasm and competitiveness of the Thursday Islanders, no matter how late their game started, and the total conviction of the Queenslanders in being able to win.
I carry that conviction into tonight’s game, but I also expect it to be a good one!!
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by tigerholic on
Thanks Mary
Submitted by Gummy Sharks on
NSW 30 QLD 22
TRIES by back 3 =6
Submitted by doobynuts on
NSW 25 QLD 18
Trie by back 3 = 3
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
I just looked up the biggest loser on google and there is a picture of Tigerholic in West Tigers pyjamas and a blues beenie.
Queensland spirit for me is best told in the story of the cabbie in Brisbane who threw Benny Elais out his cab years later when he recognised him,that's Queensland spirit right there.
Submitted by Esra Star on
It's what gives us the edge.
Submitted by Taka on
NSW 28
QLD 14
BACK THREE - 4 tries.
Submitted by rickstar4life on
Qld - 34
NSW - 16
first try scorer - Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
player of the match - Kalyn Ponga
Back 3 - 4 tries
Submitted by David.C-Manly1st. on
Hopefully Queensland
Submitted by Walby on
NSW 20 QLD 18
Tries from the back 3 x 3
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
The Gambler is doing his best to ruin another Origin,it is a sad inditement on all the referees that this clown is considered number one.
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Agree with you Rocket and I'm a neutral....
Submitted by tigerholic on
Telstra
You have a lot to answer for, my QLD mates are using the outage today to go to ground and hide after tonights game.
I have sent a few messages to remind them who won, not one reply, god I love NSW winning.
Tiger
Submitted by Mary S on
Yes Tiger, NSW played the more consistent, determined, brutal game tonight with a few less errors than QLD, so perhaps there's something in the "Underdog" tag that make a team more determined.
Oh well, next year the result will be reversed!!
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by Esra Star on
As a Queenslander i have no problem with the win. I thought NSW were the better team on the night.
A couple of things though. That try by Best. As good as it looked and was,it was allowed to stand by a shocker from the bunker. Even the NSW commentators were shaking their heads.
And secondly,in the last five minutes or so,Cleary was blatyently time wasting setting up the conversion and to rub salt in to our wounds,Kleine didn't bother to stop the clock and was even having a joke with Cleary.
Once again i will say,,,the blues deserved the win.
Submitted by The Thinker on
@Esra Star
Agreed.
Game three was the best performance by NSW by a margin, and the worst performance by Qld.
Game was still a contest, but NSW deserved the win.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by Fittler sucks on
new
Submitted by Fittler sucks on Thu 9/7/26 - 11:16pm AEST
That referring was pathetic, no sin bin for the head high shoulder charge on ponga , first try a double movement third try from an illegal strip then the knock on. I am nearly done with the NRL. Hollow victory for thr scuM COCKROACHES
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