Game details

Date: Wednesday 26th June 2024

Time: 8.05pm kick-off

Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne

Tickets: Tickets available from Ticketek

Team list - New South Wales Blues

1. Dylan Edwards (Penrith Panthers)
2. Brian To'o (Penrith Panthers)
3. Stephen Crichton (Canterbury Bulldogs)
4. Latrell Mitchell (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
5. Zac Lomax (St George Illawarra Dragons)
6. Jarome Luai (Penrith Panthers)
7. Mitchell Moses (Parramatta Eels)
8. Jake Trbojevic (c) (Manly Sea Eagles)
9. Reece Robson (North Queensland Cowboys)
10. Payne Haas (Brisbane Broncos)
11. Liam Martin (Penrith Panthers)
12. Angus Crichton (Sydney Roosters)
13. Cameron Murray (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
14. Connor Watson (Sydney Roosters
15. Isaah Yeo (Penrith Panthers)
16. Haumole Olakau'atu (Manly Sea Eagles)
17. Spencer Leniu (Sydney Roosters)

Team list - Queensland Maroons

1. Reece Walsh (Brisbane Broncos)
2. Xavier Coates (Melbourne Storm)
3. Valentine Holmes (North Queensland Cowboys)
4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Redcliffe Dolphins)
5. Murray Taulagi (North Queensland Cowboys)
6. Tom Deardon (North Queensland Cowboys)
7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c) (Manly Sea Eagles)
8. Reuben Cotter (North Queensland Cowboys)
9. Ben Hunt (St George Illawarra)
10. Lindsay Collins (Sydney Roosters)
11. Jaydn S'uA (St George Illawarra Dragons)
12. Jeremiah Nanai (North Queensland Cowboys)
13. Patrick Carrigan (Brisbane Broncos)
14. Harry Grant (Melbourne Storm)
15. Moeaki Fotuaika (Gold Coast Titans)
16. Felise Kaufusi (Redcliffe Dolphins)
17. Kurt Capewell (New Zealand Warriors)

Game preview

What sort of form reference is game one of the 2024 series, given that NSW played with one less troop for much of the match? Some might throw that form out of the window, but before you do that, remember that prior to the send-off QLD had made one foray deep into attack and scored a try, and made a long-range break that almost resulted in another (as the NSW strategy to target Reece Walsh backfired in spectacular fashion). To my eye, QLD looked the better side up until that point, and the sending off just amplified the margin. In the days that immediately followed game one, NSW went out of their way to tell us Walsh wasn't targeted. That said, there was plenty of noise before the game to say they would, and there's been plenty of noise leading into game two saying they will do it again. They'll absolutely target him, with Liam Martin handed the black hat as the primary bad guy (check out his first two 'tackles' on Walsh from game one as a reference point). Targeting one person is all good and well, but in doing so you run the risk of leaving yourself exposed in the defensive line, and the QLD backline has a few players other than Walsh that can take advantage of an exposed defensive line. Tabuai-Fidow showed us all what he can do to a disjointed defensive line in game one (and against the Sharks at NRL level). The all-time record for Origin try-scorers is Greg Inglis with 18. Tabuai-Fidow has already scored seven in four games...he's 22 years old. His match-up against Crichton (probably the best defensive centre in the game) is key to the result. The Blues have brought in Murray and Watson in the forwards, and have punted McInnes after he made 41 tackles in 48 minutes on debut. He missed none, while higher profile NSW forwards missed plenty (Martin - 9, Crichton - 7). When he wasn't a tackling machine McInnes was running the ball (11 times for 94 metres), performing better on that measure than Martin or Robson who were on the field for much longer. I'm not sure what more he could have done, but he's punted after one game. It's the NSW way. So too Nicho Hynes, labelled by all as not up to standard even though he'll win the Dally M medal in a canter this year. He's played two Origin games in his life - in his Origin debut he came off the bench and had to play in the centres, and in the other his team were a player down for 72 minutes. Anyhoo...the mob have spoken and he's been cast on the scrap heap, replaced by the saviour of NSW (Moses) who (Thinker checks notes) has played 3 origin games already. His record, two losses and one win (in a dead rubber where QLD had already won the series). He's not playing the lights out at NRL level and his club side are struggling, but he's the bloke that will deliver a must-win result for NSW. I don't deny that I view Origin through a maroon-coloured prism, but it looks to me like Moses is a false prophet. In any case, should QLD win game two and head to their favourite venue for a potential clean sweep, I look forward to commentators and journalists reminding me that NSW would have won this series 3-0 if Cleary were available. It's the NSW way.

Verdict - QLD 24 to defeated NSW 22

Predicted first try scorer - Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

Predicted player of the match - Tom Deardon