Canberra Raiders vs New Zealand Warriors – Friday night – GIO Stadium
11th plays 12th in a key game for both sides if they're serious about a finals appearance, and both teams should be fairly fresh after a bye last week. I ignored the Canberra weather for the last Raiders home game, but I won't this time. It will be 2 degrees below zero when the Warriors get out of bed on Friday morning, and that has to hurt. It won't be much warmer than that when they kick off, and they're expecting showers and the wind to pick up through the day. Brutal stuff. The Warriors have named both their Origin forwards (Barnett and Capewell) in their starting thirteen, so watch for changes there. They are also without Tohu Harris for the rest of the season - he'll be getting his troublesome wrist sorted out for next year. Nicoll-Klokstad and Montoya are also unavailable. Just as importantly, the Raiders have some key players returning for this game in Fogarty, Young and Hosking. The Raiders last win was on the 1st of June, but I think they can get the points here.
Verdict – Raiders by 7
Result – Raiders 20 defeated Warriors 18
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Wests Tigers – Saturday afternoon – Industree Group Stadium, Gosford
The Rabbitohs take this home game on the road. As I write, word is filtering through that Cameron Murray is likely to be suspended following his off-field altercation on Wednesday night. The only other change for the Rabbits is Jai Arrow, who is off to have his body put back together for next year. For the Tigers, Koroisau has been named on an extended bench but is unlikely. Seyfarth will miss the game with the concussion protocols, but Twai returns from same. In their last seven games, the Tigers have conceded (on average) just shy of 40 points per game...and they actually won two of those. The Rabbits attack has been humming along quite nicely in recent weeks and daytime conditions are likely to suit. Their wayward goal-kicking was costly against the Dolphins but I imagine they've been working on that.
Verdict – Rabbitohs by 10
Result – Rabbitohs 42 defeated Tigers 28
Newcastle Knights vs Brisbane Broncos – Saturday night – McDonald Jones Stadium
The Broncos have fallen to 13th on the ladder and have lost 6 games in a row. Their last win was in mid-May, when they beat Manly by a solitary point at Suncorp. They're not the team that went within a whisker of winning the grand final last year, and they're running out of time to turn things around. There's some talk about Adam Reynolds being named, but he won't be playing. All four Origin players have been named on the reserves for the Broncos, but I'd be surprised if any of them play. The Knights have named their three Origin players in their starting thirteen - Gagai might be a late withdrawal while the other two seem more likely to back up. With question marks about Haas and Carrigan backing up, I expect the Knights will win the battle in the middle, particularly with a big home crowd giving them a nudge. I'm surprised the Broncos are the favourite in this, to be honest.
Verdict – Knights by 4
Result – Broncos 30 defeated Knights 14
Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters – Saturday night – AAMI Park
1st plays 3rd and the result is likely to have ramifications for the race to the minor premiership. The Storm keep on winning, but this is a much tougher contest than recent outings. Mind you, they did beat the Roosters (18-12) in round 7, and that was in Sydney. Just the one Origin player for the Storm, and while Grant has been named there must be some doubts about him backing up. The Chooks have named their four Origin players in the seventeen - Collins and Crichton the more likely to drop out I suspect. Notably, the Chooks Origin reps are all forwards, and Waerea-Hargreaves is suspended, so the Roosters engine room faces a stern test on Saturday. Radley returns for this game which will help, as does Sua'ali'i from his lengthy suspension. The weather in Melbourne looks particularly hideous, which is likely to limit the Roosters awe-inducing attack somewhat. I'm still going to tip them though- Walker will have a few trick shots with the boot close to the line. If one or two of those pay off it could prove the difference. The game of the round, and clearly so.
Verdict – Roosters by 4
Result – Storm 24 defeated Roosters 8
Penrith Panthers vs Redcliffe Dolphins – Sunday afternoon – BlueBet Stadium
A hard game to call at this point - with so many players backing up (or not backing up) from Wednesday night. Edwards and Yeo are definitely out for the Panthers, while Luai, To'o and Martin have been named on an extended bench. The big talking point is the return of Cleary, who won't be goal-kicking as they manage his return. The Dolphins have named Kaufusi and Tabuai-Fidow in their starting thirteen. The Hammer appeared to be struggling late on Wednesday, so perhaps keen an eye on that. Note that Trai Fuller has been retained in the seventeen. I've ended up siding with the home side, who have won 4 from 6 at Penrith this season. The Dolphins haven't had to travel to Sydney often this year, and the last time they did they were humbled by the Dragons. This is likely to be harder.
Verdict – Panthers by 4
Result – Panthers 28 defeated Dolphins 26
Manly Sea Eagles vs Gold Coast Titans – Sunday afternoon – 4 Pines Park
Both sides have named their Origin players in their starting sides for now - Cherry-Evans had plenty of traffic directed his way on Wednesday so he might be a little sore. Olakau'atu is likely to be suspended after getting involved in the Origin fracas - he's done well to get sent off in a game where he was never on. I'm sure Des Hasler would love to pick up a win over his old club. The Titans are in terrific form and I do give them a hope, but Manly at Brookvale on a Sunday afternoon is a winning formula, ably demonstrated last week when they gave the Knights a good walloping.
Verdict – Sea Eagles by 4
Result – Sea Eagles 38 defeated Titans 8
North Queensland Cowboys vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Sunday night – Queensland Country Bank Stadium
8th plays 5th, and I expect both these sides will end up making the top eight this season. Notably, these sides get to play each other again in the final round of the year, so the results between these two clubs are going to be pretty important. The Cowboys have put all five of their Origin players on an extended bench - whether any or all of them get called into the seventeen is a wait and see for now. For the Bulldogs, club captain Stephen Crichton has been named at centre and is expected to back up...it's a little easier backing up from a win. The Cowboys record at home has been a little disappointing this season. If they fire, they could win this comfortably, but inconsistency has let them down. Given that, and with so much uncertaintly around their line-up, I'm with the Bulldogs to cause an upset. Can Burton kick his third match-winning field goal in a row? Sure, why not.
Verdict – Bulldogs by 1
Result – Cowboys 20 defeated Bulldogs 18
Wally Lewis - round twenty selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning
- RAIDERS vs Warriors
- RABBITOHS vs Tigers
- KNIGHTS vs Broncos
- STORM vs Roosters
- PANTHERS vs Dolphins
- SEA EAGLES vs Titans
- COWBOYS vs Bulldogs
Comments
Submitted by The Thinker on
Greetings football fans
I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round 19. Not a single change to the top eight on the ladder after that round, but plenty of shuffling below that.
Some solid scoring from most of our tipsters, but only COSSEE POSSE picked them all. Congrats COSSEE POSSE...terrific work there. The Dragons were the team that surprised most of us.
As always, if you notice any issues with the scoring just let me know.
I'll have my previews and selections for round 20 published on Thursday (note the round doesn't kick off until Friday night).
Also, if you're participating in the State of Origin comp donate forget to submit your predictions here.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Hey Frens,
Yeah, last week’s decision to “go for a few roughies” didn’t quite go according to plan and in the end I did indeed show myself to be a “fool”. First and last time I’ll do that this year I reckon. OK, let’s do this thing …
Raiders vs. Warriors @ GIO Stadium
Probability @ 35-65
Ladder Position = Raiders
Bookies Favourite = Warriors
The Raiders and Warriors seem to me to be pretty evenly matched in this one. The Warriors give me the impression of having a bit more upside as far as I see it. I could be wrong but I’m thinking they should just get in. Warriors by 4.
Rabbitohs vs. Tigers @ Gosford
Probability @ 75-25
Ladder Position = Rabbitohs
Bookies Favourite = Rabbitohs
The Rabbitohs have a belief that they can make the 8 (keeping in mind they have 4 tough games ahead of them in the next 8 rounds) so they’ll be going all out here you would imagine. After last week’s effort (and giving them the benefit of the doubt) I just can’t pick the Tigers. Not only are the Tigers up against a surging Souths here, as it turns out, they’ll be playing Souths again in Round 24. Anyway, the Rabbitohs should be too good. Rabbitohs by 12.
Knights vs. Broncos @ McDonald Jones
Probability @ 40-60
Ladder Position = Knights
Bookies Favourite = Broncos
The Knights let me down big time last week. They were very ordinary it must be said. Meanwhile, the Broncos are doing my head in. It confounds me that they haven’t won a game since Round 11. Surely they have to win one soon don’t they? Without any confidence whatsoever I’ll tip ‘em again. Broncos by 6.
Storm vs. Roosters @ AAMI
Probability @ 40-60
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Roosters
The Roosters are favourites and they’re on top of the ratings but I keep reminding myself they have some players missing, they’re up against the league leaders and they’re playing at AAMI. My head is telling me Melbourne but my heart is telling me the opposite. Roosters by 4. Begurk! 🐔 Begurk! 🐔
Panthers vs. Dolphins @ BlueBet
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers
There are a lot of experts saying the Panthers will get in easy here. Yeah, they’ll be at home and they have more class than their opposition but I reckon the Dolphins might give them a run for their money Sunday afternoon. It should be an interesting game. Panthers by 8.
Manly vs. Titans @ Brookvale
Probability @ 75-25
Ladder Position = Manly
Bookies Favourite = Manly
Manly were pretty ruthless last week but it must be said their opposition were lacklustre. The Titans should be better placed to test Manly out. I’ve underestimated the Titans lately I must admit but I give them a real chance here. This is a tough one for me and all I can go on is what I saw last week. Manly by 6.
Cowboys vs. Bulldogs @ Townsville
Probability @ 60-40
Ladder Position = Bulldogs
Bookies Favourite = Cowboys
As much as I like the Bulldogs, I’m wondering if the recent cliff-hanger wins in ET have had an effect on them. Even if their Origin players are rested for this, the Cowboys have more class, they’ll be at home and I reckon the Doggies are due for a loss anyway. Cowboys by 8.
Bye: Dragons, Eels and Sharks.
Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…
Can’t remember if I’ve put this one up before or not. This one is like “Chaka Khan meets Grace Jones” but that only makes sense if you know who those lovely ladies are. Still funky, even after 41 years. Enjoy…
https://youtu.be/tQDbEyhIcbE
OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔
Submitted by NuL1F3 on
Hi Thinker, I missed the deadline for the first game but put my remaining tips into a post for round 19.
Submitted by The Thinker on
@NuL1F3
Thanks for the reminder. I will update.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by The Thinker on
A quick update for the tipsters - it looks like Haas, Carrigan, Walsh and Reynolds are all going to play this weekend.
Broncos must realise it's getting serious.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by The Thinker on
Global systems outage - as far as I can tell ye old thinker site keeping it together like a boss.
If anyone has issues submitting tips just let me know.